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PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006
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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS International Economy
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International oil price - monthly average
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OECD leading indicator and industrial production
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World economic outlook: Real GDP World5,1 4,3 4,3 Advanced economies 3,3 2,5 2,7 USA4,2 3,5 3,3 Japan2,7 2,0 2,0 Euro area 2,0 1,2 1,8 United Kingdom 3,2 1,9 2,2 Newly industrialised Asian economies*5,6 4,0 4,7 Emerging market and developing countries7,3 6,4 6,1 Africa 5,3 4,5 5,9 Central and eastern Eur.6,5 4,3 4,6 Developing Asia 8,2 7,8 7,2 Western hemisphere5,6 4,1 3,8 * Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005 Annual percentage change in real GDP Actual Projections 2004 2005 2006
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World economic outlook: Consumer prices World 3,7 3,9 3,7 Advanced economies 2,0 2,2 2,0 USA 2,7 3,1 2,8 Japan0,0 -0,4 -0,1 Euro area2,1 2,1 1,8 United Kingdom 1,3 2,0 1,9 Newly industrialised Asian economies* 2,4 2,2 2,3 Emerging market and developing countries5,8 5,9 5,7 Africa 7,8 8,2 7,0 Central and eastern Eur.6,5 4,8 4,3 Developing Asia4,2 4,2 4,7 Western hemisphere 6,5 6,3 5,4 * Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005 Annual percentage change in consumer prices Actual Projections 2004 2005 2006
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Key central bank interest rates Per cent Countries 1 January 2005 10 March 2006 Latest change (Percentage points) USA 2,25 4,50 31 Jan 2006 (+0,25) Japan 0,00 0,00 19 Mar 2001 (-0,15) Euro area 2,00 2,50 2 Mar 2006 (+0,25) United Kingdom 4,75 4,50 4 Aug 2005 (-0,25) Canada 2,50 3,75 7 Mar 2006 (+0,25) Denmark2,00 2,50 3 Mar 2006 (+0,25) Sweden 2,00 2,00 23 Feb 2006 (+0,25) Switzerland 0,25 – 1,25 0,50 – 1,50 15 Dec 2005 (+0,25) Australia 5,25 5,50 2 Mar 2005 (+0,25) New Zealand 6,50 7,25 8 Dec 2005 (+0,25) Israel 3,70 4,75 23 Jan 2006 (+0,25) China 5,58 5,58 29 Oct 2004 (+0,27) Hong Kong 3,75 6,00 1 Feb 2006 (+0,25) India 4,75 5,50 24 Jan 2006 (+0,25) Malaysia* 2,70 3,25 22 Feb 2006 (+0,25)
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Key central bank interest rates Per cent Countries 1 January 2005 10 March 2006 Latest change (Percentage points) South Korea 3,25 4,00 9 Feb 2006 (+0,25) Taiwan 1,75 2,25 22 Dec 2005 (+0,125) Thailand 2,00 4,50 8 Mar 2006 (+0,25) Brazil 17,75 16,50 8 Mar 2006 (-0,75) Chile 2,25 4,75 9 Feb 2006 (+0,25) Mexico** 8,81 7,50 24 Feb 2006 (-0,25) Czech Republic 2,50 2,00 27 Oct 2005 (+0,25) Hungary 9,50 6,00 20 Sep 2005 (-0,25) Poland 6,50 4,00 28 Feb 2006 (-0,25) Russia 13,00 12,0026 Dec 2005 (-1,00) South Africa 7,50 7,0015 Apr 2005 (-0,50) * The central bank of Malaysia introduced a new interest rate framework on 23 April 2004. ** The Bank of Mexico has decided on a gradual transition toward a policy target regime, but retains the “el corto” until the transition is complete. Source: National central banks
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USA: Real gross domestic product
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USA: Unemployment rate
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USA: Consumer prices and central bank interest rates
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Japan: Real gross domestic product
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Japan: Unemployment rate
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Japan: Consumer prices
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Euro area: Real gross domestic product
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Euro area: Unemployment rate
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Euro area: Consumer prices and central bank interest rate
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UK: Real gross domestic product
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UK: Unemployment
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UK: Consumer prices and central bank interest rate
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SADC: Inflation Annual percentage change in consumer prices 2004 2005 Nov 2005 Dec 2005Jan 2005 Africa 7,8 * * * * Angola 43,6 23,2 19,0 18,5 17,2 Botswana6,6 8,6 11,3 11,4 16,6 Lesotho5,0 3,4 3,4 3,5 * Malawi 11,6 15,4 16,2 16,5 16,7 Madagascar 13,8 18,8 12,8 11,4 10,0 Mauritius 4,3 4,9 3,6 3,9 6,0 Mozambique12,6 7,2 9,6 14,0 11,5 Namibia 4,1 2,3 3,4 3,4 3,6 South Africa1,4 3,4 3,4 3,6 4,0 Swaziland 3,5 * 6,2 6,3 * Tanzania 4,3,4 4,8 5,0 5,4 Zambia 18,0 18,3 17,2 15,9 12,2 Zimbabwe350,0 266,8 502,4 585,8 613,2 * Not available Source: National central banks, unpublished Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005
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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS National Economy
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Real gross domestic product 6-year upswing
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Real gross domestic product in the secondary sector
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Real gross domestic expenditure
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Real final consumption expenditure by households
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Real disposable income of households
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Household debt as percentage of disposable income of households
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Real final consumption expenditure by general government
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Real gross fixed capital formation
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Real gross domestic final demand
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Change in inventories
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Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic product
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Non-agricultural employment
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SepMarSepMarSep SepMarSepMarSep 20032004200420052005 20032004200420052005 (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s)(000’s) a. Total employment 11 424 11 392 11 643 11 90712 301 b. Total unemployed (official definition) 4 434 4 415 4 135 4 2834 487 c. Total economically active = a + b15 858 15 807 15 778 16 19016 788 d. Total not economically active 13 080 13 324 13 527 13 33412 909 e. Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 28 938 29 131 29 305 29 52429 697 f. Official unemployment rate = b * 100/c 28,0% 27,9% 26,2% 26,5%26,7% Source: Labour Force Survey by Statistics South Africa Labour market statistics, based on the labour force survey
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Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per worker
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Non-agricultural labour productivity
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Non-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
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Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
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Headline inflation and CPIX
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All-goods production prices
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Balance of payments: Current account
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Balance on financial account*
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Financial account
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Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international liquidity position of the South African Reserve Bank
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Imports covered by reserves
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Average net daily turnover in the South African foreign exchange market
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Exchange rates of the rand
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Growth in M3
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Total loans and advances extended to private sector
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Money-market interest rates
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Yield on long-term government bonds
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Yield curves
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Turnover in the secondary share market
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Share prices - all classes
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Real-estate market
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Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirement
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