1. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 1

2.  A.T. Stoddard, PhD, PE ◦ Principal - LSC Transportation Consultants  Corey Pitts, AICP ◦ Transportation Planner - Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc (VHB) 2

3. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Project B-3 (1995) ◦ Methods for forecasting Demand based on data from 39 selected counties ◦ Workbook and spreadsheet (in 1-2-3) ◦ Methods applied by states and agencies  Mixed reviews  Project B-36 ◦ Methods for both Need and Demand ◦ Used national databases ◦ Considered new travel markets 3

4. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Markets have changed  FTA requirement for Public Transportation-Human Service Coordination Plan ◦ Plans will be more useful if related to measures of unmet need and served demand  Internet provides easy access to data not readily available in 1995  Good forecasts provide support for funding from local governments 4

5. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Need = number of persons likely to require service  Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost  Both are required; need may be more important to build support  It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition 5

6. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Demographic data – American Community Survey (and PUMS) ◦ Only source for disability data ◦ 3-Year data available for areas having a population of 20,000 or more ◦ 5-Year data for areas of all size available at the tract level 6

7. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  National Household Travel Survey ◦ Valid data only for large geographic areas  Rural National Transit Database (NTD) ◦ Service areas not clearly identified ◦ Patronage by market not specified ◦ Some questions about data quality ◦ General public services only 7

8. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_161.pdf 8

9. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_w58.pdf 9

10. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/168758.aspx 10

11. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Understand concepts of need and demand  Explore methodologies for estimating need and demand  Become familiar with workbook  Identify sources of data (collect when appropriate)  Select and apply appropriate methodologies  Understand and apply spreadsheet tool 11

12. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 12

13. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Quick Start Guide  Introduction  Need  Demand  Data Sources  Appendices 13

14. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Worksheets  Hot links to Census data (electronic version)  Spreadsheet for application 14

15. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Basic data required to estimate need and demand ◦ Service characteristics  Service area population  Service area (square miles)  Annual vehicle-miles  Annual vehicle-hours  Number of one-way trips served (boardings) ◦ Community Characteristics  Area of each county in service area (square miles)  College/University enrollment  List of social service agencies providing transportation 15

16. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Populations in need  Mobility Gap ◦ Number of trips needed 16

17. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  General purpose rural – mostly demand response  Program trips – tied to human service programs  Small city fixed route – in small communities, under 50,000 population*  Commuters – rural area to urban center* * New topic not addressed in project B-3 17

18. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  A – Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS)  B – Step by Step Instructions for the Rural Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet  C – Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection 18

19. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 19

20. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Need  Demand  Mobility Gap  Trip  Program Trip  Non-Program Trip  Rural  Urbanized Area  Urban Cluster  Urban Center 20

21. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Need relates to transportation that is required so that individuals can fulfill life needs and participate in society. Need is independent of the quality of available transportation ◦ Need is measured in two ways: people and trips  Demand is the number of trips that will be made using a transportation service offered at a given price and level of service. ◦ Demand is measured in trips 21

22. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access ◦ Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those with relatively unfettered mobility ◦ Measured in trips per day ◦ Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served 22

23. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency  Non-program trips – akin to general public transportation but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over) ◦ Trip time and destination chosen by traveler 23

24. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B  For fixed-route and non-program trips, a “trip” is as defined for the National Transit Database i.e. a “boarding”  For program or sponsored trips, a “trip” is a linked trip from original origin to ultimate destination 24

25. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Rural – a county which has a population density less than 1,000 persons per square mile  Urbanized Area – a central place and adjacent territory with population density ≥ 1,000 persons per square mile and total population of at least 50,000 25

26. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Urban Cluster – A densely settled area with a population between 2,500 and 50,000 ◦ Defined by U.S. Census  Urban Center – the central place of an urbanized area ◦ As used in the demand forecasting methodology and Workbook 26

27. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Population Segments Method 27

28. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Population Based ◦ Number of persons residing in households owning no vehicle  Vehicle ownership more important than age ◦ Number of persons residing in households with income below the poverty line  Data for each group, individually, available from the American Community Survey 28

29. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 29

30. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  1 – year data ◦ areas of 65,000 or more population  3 – year data ◦ areas of 20,000 or more population  5 – year data ◦ block group level 30

31. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Households by Vehicle Availability ◦ B08201  Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level ◦ B17001 31

32. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 32 Number of Persons Residing in Households with Income Below the Poverty Line Number of Persons Residing in Households with No Vehicle Available

33. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 33

34. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Households with No Vehicle Multiplier Persons residing in households with No Vehicle One person household 7551 Two person household 2382476 3 person household 1983594 4 or more person household 14456 Total 1,0741,881 34

35. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 35

36. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level Persons residing in households owning no automobile Total Need 36 5,827 1,881 7,708

37. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Mobility Gap Method 37

38. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access ◦ Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those with relatively unfettered mobility ◦ Measured in trips per day ◦ Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served 38

39. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B 39

40. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Source: National Household Travel Survey- 2009 40

41. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop DivisionStates Trips per Rural Household Per Day Vehicles Available Gap 01 National3.24.71.5 Division 1: New England Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island 3.35.01.7 Division 2: MiddleNew Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania3.54.81.3 Division 3: East North Central Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois 2.74.11.4 Division 4: West North Central North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota 2.44.52.1 Division 5: South Atlantic Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida 3.24.51.3 Division 6: East South Central Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi 2.74.11.4 Division 7: West South Central Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana 2.94.92.0 Division 8: Mountain Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico 5.26.00.8 Division 9: Pacific Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii 3.84.91.1 41

42. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 42 Number of Households with No Vehicle Available (B08201) Number of Households with No Vehicle Available (B08201) Mobility Gap (by Region) Mobility Gap (by Region)

43. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 43

44. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Households with No Vehicle One person household 755 Two person household 238 3 person household 198 4 or more person household 14 Total 1,205 44

45. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Data for Bedford County VA: ◦ Households with no vehicle available = 1,205 ◦ Gap (Division 5, South Atlantic) = 1.3 trips per day  Daily Mobility Gap ≈ 1,600 Trips  Annual Mobility Gap ≈ 480,000 Trips* *Assumes 300 days of service 45

46. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  List service providers in your area  Tabulate trips served per day (average day) for each provider ◦ Report by market group if possible  Sum trips  Compare to computed Mobility Gap  Report estimated percent of Gap served 46

47. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Estimated Trip Need = X trips per day  @ 1.0 trips/mile = X Miles - Existing Daily Vehicle Miles to satisfy 100% of estimated need  TCRP Report 98 provides methodology and software for estimating the number of vehicles to serve any given level of demand ◦ http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/153268.aspx http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/153268.aspx 47

48. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Peer Method 48

49. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Two basic approaches to developing forecasts ◦ Peer analysis ◦ Demand Function 49

50. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency  Non-program trips – akin to general public but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over) ◦ Trip time and destination chosen by traveler 50

51. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Preferred Sources of Data (in decreasing order) ◦ Your System ◦ Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings in Your State ◦ Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings Elsewhere 51

52. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Operating environment ◦ Size of service area (population; square miles) ◦ Presence of college or university ◦ Funding sources  Degree of coordination ◦ Social service programs in operation ◦ Agency provided client transportation 52

53. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Your state transit agency or transportation agency  State transit association ◦ Your state ◦ Neighboring states  National Rural Transit Database  Call other agencies  For larger systems: Integrated National Transit Database Analysis System 53

54. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Information Needed (for identified peer systems) ◦ Population of the area served ◦ Size in square miles of the area served ◦ Presence of major generator (College, Employer, etc.) ◦ Annual vehicle-miles and/or vehicle-hours of service provided ◦ Nature of the operation (e.g. fixed-route, route- deviation, demand-response) ◦ Number of one-way trips served (per month, per year) ◦ Degree of coordination with other carriers 54

55. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Who are peers of your system?  How can you get data? 55

56. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Compute the following values for each system’s data: ◦ Passenger Trips per Capita ◦ Passenger Trips per Vehicle Mile (by service type) ◦ Passenger Trips per Vehicle Hour (by service type) 56

57. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 57

58. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Input Data from Peer Transit Systems Name of Peer System Population Area Size of Area Served (Sq Mi) Annual Vehicle Miles of Service Annual Vehicle Hours of Service Number of 1-Way Trips per Year Service Type Degree of Coordination Trips / Capita Trips / Vehicle Mile Trips / Vehicle Hour 58 Peer A 82,879 1,154 130,376 10,009 57,874 FR Unk 0.70 0.44 5.78 Peer B 88,661 1,037 200,676 14,390 221,910 FR Unk Peer C 87,614 835 316,403 20,252 224,046 FR Unk 2.50 1.11 15.42 2.56 0.71 11.06

59. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Results Data from Peer Transit Systems Name of Peer System Peer APeer BPeer C Trips per Capita Trips per Vehicle Miles Trips per Vehicle Hours 59 Results Data from Peer Transit Systems MinimumMaximumAverageMedian Trips per Capita Trips per Vehicle Miles Trips per Vehicle Hours 0.70 2.50 2.56 0.441.110.71 5.7815.42 11.06 1.92 0.75 10.75 0.70 0.44 5.78 2.56 1.11 15.42 2.50 0.71 11.06

60. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 60

61. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 61

62. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Non-program trips 62

63. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Demand is a function of Population Groups: ◦ Elderly age 60 and over  B01001 ◦ Mobility limitation age 18 to 64  S1810 ◦ Residents in Households with No Vehicle Available  B08201 63

64. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 64 2.20 Population Age 60+ 5.21 Mobility Limited Population Age 18-64 1.52 Residents of Households with No Vehicle

65. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 65

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69. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 69 2.20 14,697 5.21 1,537 1.52 1,745

70. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Non-market specific 70

71. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Another method for estimating demand for non-program trips ◦ “General Public” Trips  Reported to Rural NTD  Method relates expected demand to estimate of need (mobility gap) and amount of service provided  Can be used to compare change in demand with service expansion/reduction 71

72. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 72 2.44 Need 0.028 Annual Vehicle-Miles 0.749 Need = Mobility Gap time 300 Days of Service

73. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 73

74. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency 74

75. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Adult day care  Developmental Services  Group Homes  Head Start  Job Training  Mental Health  Senior Nutrition  Sheltered Workshop/ Employment Service Organization (ESO) 75

76. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  What other human service programs operate in your areas?  Do they provide transportation?  How do you work with them? 76

77. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 77 Number of Program Participants Program Events per Week The Proportion of Program Participants who attend the Program on an Average Day The Proportion of Program Participants that are Transit Dependent The Number of Weeks per Year the Program is Offered 2 (trips per participant per event)

78. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  When preparing a Coordinated Plan obtain from each agency the data required to estimate transportation demand 78

79. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 79

80. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Micropolitan Areas 80

81. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  A small city, for purposes of this analysis, is one with a population of less than 50,000 located within a county that is not within an urbanized area. 81

82. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 82 5.77 Revenue- hours of Service 1.07 Population (B01003) Population (B01003) 7.12 College/ University Enrollment

83. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Sources of Data ◦ College/University ◦ http://www.collegeboard.org/ http://www.collegeboard.org/ 83 Name of InstitutionCurrent Enrollment (s) Projected Planning Year Enrollment (FTEs) Name of first university Name of second university Name of first college Etc. Totals

84. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 84

85. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 85

86. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 86 5.77 1.07 19,257 7.12 7,358 19,857

87. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 87

88. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Conditions of application ◦ Travel from a county that is not part of an urbanized area ◦ Travel to a county that is in an urbanized area ◦ Commuter trips per day by all modes from home in county A to workplace in county B in the range of 2,000 – 30,000 88

89. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 89 Proportion Using Transit for Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place Number of Commuters 2 2

90. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 90 0.024 0.0000056 Workers Commuting from Rural County to Urban Place 0.00029 Distance in Miles from Rural County to Urban Place 0.015 (if the Urban Place is a state capital)

91. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop  Urbanized area Metropolitan Planning Organization  Statewide travel model  American Community Survey (ACS)  Local Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) 91

92. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/ 92

93. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop Example 93

94. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 94 Proportion Using Transit for Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place Number of Commuters 2 2

95. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 95 0.024 0.0000056 2,433 0.00029 22 0.015 (if the Urban Place is a state capital)

96. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 96 0.031 2,433 2 2

97. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 97

98. Rural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 98