1. Economic Integration: Poland’s Path to Riches Edward C. Prescott 19 November 2010 20 th Anniversary of Poland Chamber of Insurance

2. Central Europe Catching Up 8 European EU that joined in 2004

3. Percent of U.S. (EU-15 is 70%)

4. Poland Doing Well

5. Poland’s Growth in GDP per Person 2008 Q16.6% 2008 Q26.5% 2008 Q35.5% 2008 Q43.3% 2009 Q11.1% 2009 Q21.3%

6. Key Development Facts Prior to 1800, constant living standard that varied little across countries and over time. After 1800, living standards began to increase in some countries. There was a transition from stagnant income to modern economic growth, which is called the Industrial Revolution. With modern economic growth, living standards double every 35-40 years, probably faster.

7. Explosive Growth Post-1800

8. U.S. Per Capita GDP

9. Fact: U.S. Overtakes U.K. GDP per Capita: US relative to UK 186879 188885 1908103 1928123 Source: Maddison

10. Why Did This Happen? Answer: –U.S. became economically integrated because of the dramatic fall in transportation costs – factor of 10 –And because member states had a high degree of economic sovereignty Poland should preserve its economic sovereignty!

11. Fact : Original E.U. countries Productivity half of U.S. level for the 40 years prior to World War II Went from 50% to 100% of U.S. productivity in the 35 years following the signing of the Treaty of Rome in 1957 Will discuss why the E.U. arrangement fostered this spectacular catch-up

12. EU-6 Caught Up

13. Late E.U. Joiners Lost Ground Prior to Joining

14. 1995 Joiners (Austria, Finland & Sweden) and Switzerland Lose Ground Year Others Relative to Original EU 1900103 191399 1938103 1957106 197396 198385 199381

15. Why Is EU-15 GDP per Capita Only 70% of U.S. Level? Answer: The Europeans have a bad tax system The marginal effective tax rate is 60% in Western Europe versus 40% in the U.S. If Western Europe reformed its tax systems, it would quickly catch up to U.S. –Don’t need high tax rates for a welfare state Mandatory savings and insurance suffice

17. Poland Workers Work Long Hours Full-Time Workers’ Hours per Year OECD Average 1766 Germany 1432 Netherlands 1389 United States 1792 Poland 1969 Source: OECD

18. Poles Retire Early This is the reason that hours per person aged 15-64 is not high When politically feasible Poland should do more to increase retirement average age

19. Why Did the Original E.U. Countries Catch Up? Answer: Original E.U. countries became economically integrated in 1957 with the signing of the Treaty of Rome.

20. Fact : Latin America Is Not Catching Up

21. Percent of Leader

22. Why the Failure to Catch-Up? Answer: Latin America is not economically integrated.

23. There Is Hope for Latin America Maybe things are changing. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Peru are becoming more integrated with the advanced industrial countries and recently have been experiencing reasonably rapid growth. Chile did so early and soon will be one of the rich industrial states.

24. The Asian Facts Some have caught up – Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore Others have narrowed the gap – Malaysia, Thailand, China, and recently India and others These countries trade in industrial products

25. The Asian Facts Some have caught up – Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore Others have narrowed the gap – Malaysia, Thailand, China, and recently India and others These countries trade in industrial products Other still poor Asian countries growing rapidly –They have 40% of the world’s population

26. Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore Caught Up GDP per Capita Percent of U.S. Level 196131 198158 200167 Source: Maddison Population: 200 million

27. Empirically – catch-up occurs when an economy becomes economically integrated with the industrial leaders By integrated I mean –Produce and trade industrial goods and services –Protect property rights of foreign multinationals –Have multinational corporations

28. The Degree of Integration Matters More integrated, higher relative income Less integrated, lower relative income An example

29. Spain GDP Per Capita Relative to U.S. Moderately IntegratedBefore 193042% Not Integrated1940-5422% Moderately Integrated196536% Becomes EU Member198149.4% Highly Integrated200761.4%

30. Set of Industrial Leaders Number increased from 14 in 1950 to 32 in 2009 Early members, Western Europe and its off-shoots A number of countries are near joining in Central and Eastern Europe and also Chile A set of 5 in Eastern Asia with 200 million people have joined

31. Will China Join? If its per capita income grows at 7% annually for 16 years, it will join the set in 2025 Over the last decade this growth rate has been nearer to 9% China will join if it becomes more economically integrated with the other advanced industrial countries And there is some degree of economic autonomy of its provinces

32. Why Economic Integration leads to Catch-Up Three reasons 1.Have access to foreign know-how – technology capital 2.Barriers to adopting better technologies are lower 3.More rapid diffusion of knowledge useful in production

33. Technology Capital Reason Multinationals use their technological know-how in their foreign subsidiaries This increases productivity and output in these countries –Wal-Mart has a large stock of knowledge that it uses in all its operations, domestic and foreign

34. Multinationals Key Threat of entry by foreign multinational is often sufficient for increased efficiency U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports 9.5% return on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) And only 3.2% on FDI in the U.S. Reason is that U.S. has a lot of technology capital, and the implicit rents on this capital are included in the accounting returns

35. Technology Capital Stock Big Technology capital investments –R&D –Developing brand names – advertising and marketing U.S. multinationals’ wholly owned foreign subsidiaries have big accounting profits –over 35% of their total accounting profits –but only 10% of their reported investment Why? Accounting profits include technology capital rents

36. The Lower Barriers Reason Absent barriers to efficient production, a country will be more productive and richer Technological know-how is the Lever to Riches but this lever does not make a country rich unless it is used Often better work practices are not used because of barriers to their use

37. Groups with a vested interest in maintaining current practices will use the political process to block change With economic integration, not a problem If productivity-enhancing change is instituted, with foreign markets, output increases by more than productivity and employment increases Further, if foreign competition is blocked, foreign countries will retaliate and domestic exporters will be hurt –These exporters have a vested interest in their country remaining open

38. Flow of Knowledge Reason Samsung Electronics has operations in Helsinki and in Austin, Texas -- why? In order to get knowledge from Nokia and Dell. There is a flow of knowledge between people in proximity. It is an important positive externality.

39. Integration Lowers Barriers to Efficient Production Some rent-seeking activity is productive – e.g., becoming more productive by acquiring an MBA But some is unproductive – e.g., lobbying and paying bribes for regulations that result in monopoly rents Some getting the rents are the politicians

40. Competition Reason Competition leads to greater productivity An example is what happened in Northern Minnesota on the Iron Range

41. Minnesota Iron Ore Example In 1982 Reagan permitted competition from new Brazilian mines Minnesota productivity doubled with no new investment –Reason: Work rules changed –Cut employment of skilled machinists in half These skilled machinists went to the Twin Cities and quickly found higher-paying jobs

42. Example: Power Shifts Away from Unions in Europe (N.E. Boudette, WSJ) Concessions by automobile worker unions in Western Europe in response to Greater Openness with Eastern Europe Daimler – new engine plant in Kolleda, Germany Would have built plant in Eastern Europe if unions had not agreed on flexible work rules that increased productivity

43. Direct Foreign Investment Overcomes Barriers to Adopting Better Technologies States without groups that will be adversely affected by the introduction of some technology and with groups that will benefit want the better technology adopted there. Example: Toyota in 1985 located an automobile plant in Kentucky introducing just-in-time production in the U.S. –Kentucky’s people want high-paying jobs –Kentucky’s people want building project The same thing happened in Wales in 1990

44. Technology Capital Must be an exporter to be an importer U.S. and E.U. and other advanced industrial economies hold foreign technology capital hostage –This protects technology capital abroad from being expropriated

45. Conclusion Central and Eastern European countries either are or soon will be among the rich industrial countries Everyone benefits from the use of technology capital –These countries will benefit from use of foreign technology capital –Other advanced industrial countries will benefit from the use of the technology capital of these countries

46. 46 Effective Measures to Improve Economic Performance Cut marginal tax rates Become more open Follow pro-productivity growth policies Reform labor market policies so workers move quickly to where they are more productive