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The Product Space and Its Consequences for Economic Growth
Cesar A. Hidalgo R. B.Klinger, A.-L. Barabasi, R. Hausmann Center for Complex Network Research Department of Physics University of Notre Dame Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government Harvard University
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Area of countries proportional to ppp (GDP per Capita)
Area of countries proportional to ppp (GDP per Capita). Source: worldmapper.org
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Fij = min{P(RCAi|RCAj),P(RCAj|RCAi)}
Share of the ith product on the basket of country c at time t Share of the ith product on the basket of the world at time t fij=P(RCAi|RCAj) Fij = min{P(RCAi|RCAj),P(RCAj|RCAi)} B. Balassa, The Review of Economics and Statistics 68, 315 (1986).
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Feenstra’s Trade Flows(1)
sitc-4 import and export data. (1) Feenstra, R. R. Lipsey, H. Deng, A. Ma and H. Mo “World Trade Flows: ” NBER working paper National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA.
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Threshold = 0.55 Number of Links = 1525
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MALAYSIA
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Malaysia 1975
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Malaysia 1980
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Malaysia 1985
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Malaysia 1990
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Malaysia 1995
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Malaysia 2000
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Density Discovery Factor
wj = Fraction of the product space that seems to be developed from the jth product perspective Discovery Factor Hj = Increase in density between transition product and undeveloped products.
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Discovery Factor Density
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P(transition | closest developed product is at proximity f)
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KEY Denotes where region has RCA
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Conclusion We showed: Product space is heterogeneous
Constrains the development of RCA Rich and poor countries are located in distinct places of it Development Strategies should be different for rich and poor countries The structure of the space prevents economical convergence
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