1. Four Mega Trends Ray McNulty Senior Vice President International Center for Leadership in Education Hawaii January 22-23, 2007 Impacting High School Reinvention

2. Themes 1.Some Thoughts 2.Educational Challenges 3.Four Megatrends Class of 2017 Dreams of the children we have Success to Significance

3. Some thoughts…

4. REFORM What are some thoughts that come to mind when you hear this word?

5. RENEWAL

6. Rigor/Relevance - All Why Why Do We Need to Change to Change Schools? Schools? What What Needs to Needs to Be Done? Be Done? How How Do We Do It? It?

7. THE IMPLEMENTATION DIP…. THE POSSIBILITY CURVE.. Fullan --1990

8. Epidemic of Immediacy Clock of the Long Now….

9. REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS Law will be simplified...Lawyers will have diminished, and their fees will have been vastly curtailed. Journalist Junius Henri Browne, 1893

10. REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS Before man reaches the moon your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail. Arthur Summerfield, US Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959.

11. REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS Daily toil... will be shortened to four or five hours U.S. Senator W.A. Peffer of Kansas, 1893. There will be no epidemics. There will be no incurable diseases. Norman Bel Geddes in Ladies Home Journal, 1931.

12. DEMASTIFICATION We have as a people, fewer shared experiences. ChoiceCable Stations

13. DISINTERMEDIATION Printing Press

14. EDUCATIONAL TRENDS

15. Trends A Fundamental Challenge Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations Secondary Focus – College and Work Ready

16. Fundamental Challenge Changing the expectations of educators, parents, community members and students regarding what is possible.

17. All students graduate as strong citizens ready for college and work. Ready for college and work means that students: have strong reading, writing and math skills are prepared for a range of post- secondary options become informed citizens who can grapple with tough social problems

18. NAEP Reading, 17 Year-Olds 21 29

19. NAEP Math, 17 Year-Olds 20 28

20. College Algebra Required Skills: Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions Understand functional notation Solve systems of two linear equations in two variables Solve quadratic equations in one variable Graph a linear equation and quadratic function Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes Represent geometric objects and figures algebraically There has also been a skills convergence: high school graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college Source: American Diploma Project, 2003 Machine Operator Eastman Chemical Company Required Skills: Calculate and apply ratios, proportions and percentages to solve problems Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions Recognize and solve problems using a linear equation and one variable Apply principals in equations involving measurements Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes Colleges and employers demand similar knowledge and skill sets In math, they require algebra, data analysis, and statistics In English they demand strong oral and written communication skills, analytical and research skills

21. Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations The growing need for personalization and customization will influence not only the way that business is conducted but also how schools will function.

23. Four Mega Trends

24. Challenges Globalization Demographics Values / Beliefs Technology

25. Globalization 9/11 11/9 Information Tech (Work to Worker)

26. Globalization Tax Returns MRIs Reuters McDonalds A- Level

27. China Clothes / Shoes Furniture Consumer Electronics Computers Bio Technology

28. Cities with 1 Million People United States Eastern / Western Europe China (2006) China (2020) 9 36 100 + 160 +

29. Number of Participants Intel International Science Competition U.S.50,000 China 6 Million SOURCE: Craig Barrett, CEO Intel

30. China World Class for 10% K – 12 Universal by 2020 100 World Class Universities 30 World Class Research Universities Math /Science Focus (Specialist – 3 rd Grade on) International Orientation (110 Million – English) Coherent Teacher Preparation Early Childhood (3 year old – universal by 2015) Career Focus Source: Education in China: Lessons for U.S. Educators, Asia Society – Business Roundtable, CCSSO

31. Challenges Globalization Demographics Values / Beliefs Technology

32. Start Working End Working Longevity 190020002100 47 62 77 21 62 14 18 107

33. Over 85 19943.5 Million 20207 Million 205027 Million

34. 1910 3.0 / 100 Demographics / Economic 1946 4.6 / 100 20001.4 – 1.8 / 100

35. Medicare 20049 % 202025 % 204050 %

36. Registered Voters School Age Children 196050 % 200518 %

37. Challenges Globalization Demographics Values / Beliefs Technology

38. Larger Context 1901 – 24G.I. 1925 – 42Silent 1943 – 60Boomers 1961 – 81Gen X 1982 -Millennial

39. Millennial Parents Accountability Protective Connected 24 / 7 Cool to be Smart Team Skills Cool to Know Technology

40. Out of every 100 ninth graders….

41. 65 will graduate from high school

42. 39 will enter college

43. 26 are still enrolled in the sophomore year

44. 15 will graduate from college

45. Challenges Globalization Demographics Values / Beliefs Technology

46. Information Technology Processing Processing Communications Communications

47. Nano Technology Atom Up Atom Up

48. Central Units Memory = 8 MB 2004 iPod = 4 GB 2005 iPod = 20 GB 2006 iPod = 80 GB 1964 IBM System / 360 Mainframe

49. Image source: www.dell.com

50. Image source: http://robota.dem.uc.pt/pda_control/pda2.JPG

51. SPOT MicrosoftMicrosoft –Citizen –Fossil –Suunco

52. SPOT Integrated ProjectionIntegrated Projection Projection KeyboardProjection Keyboard

53. Projection Keyboard

55. Projection Keyboard and Projector

56. Bio Technology Biological Science Biological Science Practical Application Practical Application

57. Bio-Info Cell Cell DNA DNA HardwareSoftware

58. Genetically Engineered Foods Tomato

59. World Wide Web

60. Google 2003350,000 searches a day 20061,000,000,000 searches a day Source: Thomas l. Friedman

61. Semantic Web 1980s: internetworking protocols link computers (Internet) 1990s: hypertext transfer protocollink documents (WWW) 2000s: grid protocols link databases (Grid computing)

62. Semantic Web Analyze Documents Analyze Documents Key words and headers Key words and headers Meaning/concepts Meaning/concepts Complete Task Complete Task

63. Information Systems Hardware Tools Capacity

64. Grid Computing

65. Language Translation Ear Buds

66. Translation Goggles

67. Evolution of the Telephone 1950s 1990s 1970s Today

68. Ready for Work Youth Employment Outcomes Ready for College Academic Outcomes Ready for Life Youth Development Outcomes 21 st Century Skills & Content Information & Media Literacy Communication Critical & Systems Thinking Problem Solving Creativity, Intellectual Curiosity Interpersonal Skills Self-Direction Accountability and Adaptability Social Responsibility Financial Literacy Global Awareness Civic Literacy Cultural, Physical & Behavioral Health Knowledge & Skills Specific Vocational Knowledge & Skills To Deliver 21 st Century Skills & Content: The Common Core Subject Matter Knowledge

69. Themes 1.Some Thoughts 2.Educational Challenges 3.Four Megatrends Class of 2017 Dreams of the children we have Success to Significance

70. Four Mega Trends Ray McNulty Senior Vice President International Center for Leadership in Education Hawaii January 22-23, 2007 Impacting High School Reinvention