1. Utility of coastal science Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research Helmholtz Center Geesthacht Germany Based upon: von Storch, H., K. Emeis, I. Meinke, A. Kannen, V. Matthias, B. W. Ratter, E. Stanev, R. Weisse and K. Wirtz, 2015: Making coastal research useful - cases from practice. Oceanologica 57, 3-16 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2014.09.001 24 June 2014 Besuchsgruppe des Auswärtigen Amtes / Ecologic

2. HZG is one of 18 research centers in the Helmholtz Association – the largest research organization in Germany HZG has 950 employees Headquarters in Geesthacht and four branches in Hamburg, Berlin, Teltow and Munich

3. Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested and subject to societal decision making processes. All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the dominant driver in such processes. Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, we describe some of these potentially useful parts of science, and discuss under which circumstances the potential usefulness transform into real utility. These cases do not span the full range of coastal science.

4. Issues in Coastal Research with the potential of societal utility: 1.Making Sense 2.Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) 3.Monitoring 4.Hazards, Risks and Opportunities 5.Scenarios 6.More …

5. Making sense refers to the scientific understanding of complex phenomena, and its use for supporting societal framing and decision making. Examples are consequences of eutrophication or the manifestation of natural system variations vis-a-vis anthropogenic climate change. Meaning-providing frames, which allow for causal interpretation and understanding, satisfy not only curiosity, but allow for engineering preparedness and options for specific stakeholders. A significant constraint is that science is not the sole supplier of such understanding, but other knowledge brokers are active as well.

6. Storm surges as recorded at the tide gauge St Pauli in Hamburg. The green horizontal bars indicate stipulated dike heights. Dike failures are marked by red stars. The color codes mark surge heights. Data provided by Gabriele Gönnert. Making sense What is the process behind the marked increase of storm surge heights in Hamburg since the 1970s?

7. Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level. Consistency of recent local change: Storm surges in Hamburg von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

8. Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) describes the “public process of analyzing and allocating the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to achieve ecological, economic and social objectives that have been specified through a political process”. MSP needs mostly quantitative information from natural sciences for project-specific technical planning exercises, but in addition social science needs to provide mainly qualitative information concerning societal and political context and structures to inform decision makers in strategic planning. Coastal science is not doing MSP as such, but in research in conditions of how to implement MSP.

10. Monitoring aims at the assessment of the current status of the coastal environment and short term trends, and their (deterministic) short-term forecasts. Such assessments are based on observations and related (model- guided) data analysis. The process of making data, assessments and forecasts available for users is also a challenge. Coastal science is not doing the routine of monitoring as such, but in research on how to implement the process of monitoring.

11. COSYNA (Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas) is a synoptic observing system for the environmental status of the North Sea. Numerous automatic in situ and satellite observations are continuously assimilated in models, thus producing hourly real-time forecasts of high quality. The data are used by science, industry, and authorities. COSYNA – North Sea

12. Land-Meer-Interaktionen Räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität Trends Events, Risiken Photo: NASA Nordsee Actual state & forecast: current waves salinity temperature turbidity / chlorophyll Application: oil spills/chemical accidents toxic algal blooms wind farms Operational COSYNA Products

13. Land-Meer-Interaktionen Räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität Trends Events, Risiken Photo: NASA Nordsee Product: Currents

14. Assessments of hazards, risks and opportunities are needed for almost any kind of onshore and offshore operation. An important component of this activity is the determination of ongoing long-term changes. The situation is particularly challenging, when too short, too fragmented or only inhomogeneous observed data are available. Then, sometimes, model-derived estimates can be used.

15. GKSS in Geesthacht The CoastDat data set: Model generated data sets Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions. extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea Clients: Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change

16. Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m 2 ] Some applications of - Ship design - Navigational safety - Offshore wind - Interpretation of measurements - Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution - Ocean energy - Scenarios of storm surge conditions - Scenarios of future wave conditions

17. Scenarios, differently to forecasts, address questions of the type “What may happen, if … and nothing else”. Such projections provide a useful outlook for assessing consequences of possible future developments and uncertainties. Therefore scenarios have become increasingly popular in various scientific and decision making contexts.

18. Storm surge height scenarios 2030, 2085 Policy advice a)Sea level, and storm surges, will rise; the extent is very uncertain. b)Until 2040, or so, coastal defense with present planning levels is sufficient c)After 2040, coastal defense may become insufficient. d)Suggestions for near future - improve technology (e.g., overflow) - monitor ongoing change - plan for organizational measures to deal with enhanced risk, and involve population in participatory efforts - do all coastal defense modernization so that future additional fortifications are possible - be prepared to implement decisions in 20 years

19. Knowledge transfer to “clients”? For making scientific insights useful, these insights must be brought to the attention of clients (stakeholders : decision makers, media, public). Many natural scientists believe that the knowledge transfer is merely an issue of explaining properly the scientific insights. However, that is not true. Knowledge transfer … … entails not only information provision and contextualization of research findings, but an analysis of the “knowledge market”. Science-stakeholder interaction becomes multifaceted and complicated. Social and cultural science knowledge is urgently needed for a successful participation of science in the process of advising decision making.

20. Bray, 2011, pers. comm. How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation? Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.

21. Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 just published (April 2015) + Hamburg region (#1 published November 2010; #2 just initiated) + North Sea (in final phase) Full reports and condensed reports for general public. Tools for regional climate servicing climate con/dis-sensus reports Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162

22. Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested and subject to societal decision making processes. We have addressed the issues of -Making sense -Marine Spatial Planning -Monitoring -Hazards, Risks and Opportunities -Scenarios The cases presented cover only part of coastal sciences.