1. 1 Adapted from: National Career Development Association Global Conference 2007 presentation: 2004-14 Employment Outlook from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Terry Schau, Bureau of Labor Statistics Used with permission. Where the Jobs Are

2. 2 The BLS Projections Process  10 year projections; updated every two years  Projections are based on a long-term view of the economy  States underlying assumptions clearly and presents model-based findings  Assumes a long-run full-employment economy

3. 3 Employment Outlook: 2004-14  Industry output and employment Occupational employment

4. 4 Service-providing industries continue to lead employment growth Millions of nonagriculture wage-and-salary jobs Goods producingService providing projected

5. 5 Goods-producing and service-providing industries by share of total employment and output, 2004 Percent

6. 6 Two industry sectors—manufacturing and financial activities—accounted for more than one third of total output in 2004 Billions of dollars Service providing Goods producing State and local government

7. 7 Nearly 27 percent of all workers held jobs in State and local government and in professional and business services in 2004 Thousands of nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, 2004 Service providing Goods producing

8. 8 Wage and salary employment growth by industry sector, projected 2004-14 Employment change in thousands State and local government Professional and business services Health care and social assistance Utilities Manufacturing Information Wholesale trade Other services Construction Financial activities Educational services, private Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Leisure and hospitality Mining Service providing Goods producing

9. 9 Employment growth can be viewed in two ways Projected, 2004-14 12 70 1,225,000 537,000

10. 10 The 10 detailed industries with the fastest-growing wage and salary employment, projected 2004-14 Percent change Educational support services, private Home health care services Software publishers Community care facilities for the elderly Outpatient care centers, except mental health and substance abuse Residential mental health and substance abuse facilities Offices of all other health practitioners Residential mental retardation facilities Facilities support services Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 79

11. 11 The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, projected 2004-14 Employment change, in thousands Employment services Local government educational services Local government, excluding education and hospitals Full-service restaurants General medical and surgical hospitals, private Limited-service eating places Home health care services Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private Management, scientific, & technical consulting services Offices of physicians 1,580

12. 12 The industries with the most projected job losses Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14 Wired telecommunications carriers Cut and sew apparel manufacturing Basic chemical manufacturing Rubber product manufacturing Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing Crop production, primary job Semiconductor & other electronic component mfg Foundries Fabric mills Printing and related support activities

13. 13 Employment Outlook: 2004-14 Industry output and employment  Occupational employment

14. 14 Wage and salary jobs will account for most of the employment growth Millions of jobs 129.2 145.6 164.5 projected

15. 15 Employment in 8 of 10 major occu- pational groups are projected to increase Percent change, projected 2004-14

16. 16 Professional workers account for more than 3 out of 10 new jobs Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14

17. 17 7 of the 10 fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, 3 are computer related Percent change, projected 2004-14 Home health aides Network systems and data communications analysts Physician assistants Computer software engineers, applications Physical therapist assistants Dental hygienists Computer software engineers, systems software Dental assistants Personal and home care aides 56 Medical assistants

18. 18 The 10 occupations projected to add the most new jobs Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14 Waiters and waitresses Food preparation/serving workers Retail salespersons Registered nurses Customer service representatives Janitors and cleaners Home health aides Nursing aides General & operations mgrs. Personal & home care aides

19. 19 Occupational employment declines often stem from technological change Numerical change in thousands, projected 2004-14 Sewing machine operators Stock clerks and order fillers Farmers and ranchers File clerks Order clerks Mail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal service Computer operators Secretaries except legal, medical, and executive Telemarketers Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic -115 -155

20. 20 Top 10 highest earning, high-growth occupations 2004 earnings Percent employment growth 24 15 17 14 13 15 16 26 14

21. 21 High-wage, high-growth occupations that are projected to add at least 100,000 new jobs Thousands of jobs, projected 2004-14 New jobs 136 110 146 308 222 153 122 126 107 242

22. 22 High-wage, high-growth occupations with the largest projected job growth Employment in thousands, projected 2004-14 2004 median earnings $52,330 51,800 77,420 43,160 50,770 53,460 74,980 30,710 34,900 66,460

23. 23 High-wage, high-growth occupations with the fastest projected job growth Percent growth, projected 2004-14 2004 median earnings $60,600 69,410 74,980 37,890 58,350 79,740 58,190 60,650 60,180 44,010

24. 24 Education and Training Pay NOTE: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers. Unemployment rate in 2005Median weekly earnings in 2005 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.2 4.7 7.6 1.1 1.6 Master’s degree Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate Some high school, no diploma Professional degree Doctoral degree

25. 25 Top 10 occupations generally requiring short-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 median annual earnings Riggers Traffic technicians Parking enforcement workers Bill and account collectors Court, municipal, and license clerks Tree trimmers and pruners Healthcare support workers, all other Human resource assistants, except payroll and timekeeping Transportation workers, all other Costume attendants $35,330 33,670 32,170 31,750

26. 26 Top 10 occupations generally requiring moderate- term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 median annual earnings Sales representatives, technical and scientific products Subway and streetcar operators Railroad conductors and yardmasters All other communication equipment workers Advertising sales agents Camera operators, television and video Bailiffs Audio-visual collections specialists Hazardous materials removal workers Sales representatives, services, all other $58,580

27. 27 Top 10 occupations generally requiring long- term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 median annual earnings Air traffic controllers Elevator installers and repairers Insurance appraisers, auto damage Police and sheriff’s patrol officers Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators Flight attendants Structural iron and steel workers Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters Media and communications, all other Athletes and sports competitors

28. 28 Top 10 occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 median annual earnings Computer specialists, all other Nuclear technicians Radiation therapists Nuclear medicine technologists Diagnostics medical sonographers Registered nurses Forensic science technicians Radiologic technologists/technicians Respiratory therapists Dental hygienists

29. 29 Top 10 occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2004 median annual earnings Physicians and surgeons Chief executives Dentists, general Lawyers Podiatrists Computer/information system mgrs. Natural sciences managers Optometrists Engineering managers Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers

30. 30 Where to go for more information on the BLS 2004-14 projections  Employment Projections Internet site: www.bls.gov/emp  Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition: www.bls.gov/oco  Career Guide to Industries, 2006-07 Edition: www.bls.gov/cg  Occupational Projections & Training Data, 2006-07 Edition: www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm  “Charting the Projections: 2004-14” in the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005-06 issue: www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm

31. 31 Where the Jobs Are Questions?