1. Linking London Conference 29 June 2015 Nick Davy, AoC HE Policy Manager

2. “It’s the economy, stupid” “Education, education, education” But what kind?

3. The HE budget – up 26% in 4 years (2011/15)

4. Hour Glass Economy Managers, directors and senior officials +586k Professional occupations +1175k Associate professional and technical +583k Administrative and secretarial - 486k Skilled trades occupations -306k Caring, leisure and other service + 649k Sales and customer service -64k Process, plant and machine operatives -214k Elementary occupations -67k

5. London Percentage Shares 19922002201220172022 1. Managers, directors and senior officials9.010.612.212.813.3 2. Professional occupations17.020.525.327.328.2 3. Associate professional and technical14.517.118.919.519.9 4. Administrative and secretarial19.114.39.88.47.3 5. Skilled trades occupations11.19.17.87.36.9 6. Caring, leisure and other service4.75.76.06.36.7 7. Sales and customer service7.77.57.26.76.4 8. Process, plant and machine operatives5.94.33.93.63.3 9. Elementary occupations11.0 8.98.18.0 Total100.0

6. Low skills equilibrium Some towns, cities and areas – experience a ‘low skills equilibrium’  Concentration of low paid jobs  Low level skills amongst population  Problems with attracting inward investment  Low educational aspirations and poor results in local schools  Reinforcing spiral of decline or status quo

7. London  Economic Activity Rates - London: 76.8% - Lowest apart from NE, NI and Wales  London - 60/64 cities for income inequality  Proportion of 19 year olds lacking a level 3 qualifications: range from 52% (Greenwich), 47% (TH, Southwark, Barking) to Redbridge, Harrow and Kensington (29%)  48% of population with Level 4 and above qualification (Mansfield/Grimsby – under 20%)  Young HE participation rate – 48% - highest region (33% - NE)  Working age population with no formal qualifications – 8% (50/64 cities)

8. Job Creation: 2010-2014 ( Labour Force Survey) Total Employ ment Employees Self Employed Self- employed full-time Self- employed part-time Apr-Jun 2010 28,97524,8313,9242,9081,015 Nov-Jan 2014 30,19125,4874,4643,2231,241 Change+1,216+656+540+314+226 Increase (per cent) 4.22.613.810.822.3

9. FE and HE Education Policy Apprenticeships, apprenticeships, apprenticeships. Full time residential academic higher education

10. Apprenticeships 2009 – 2014: apprenticeship starts for under 19 flat-lined; 65%+ in that period are at level 2 Most apprenticeships now one year + 600,000 apprenticeships needed every year for 5 years Over 40% of trailblazer standards at Level 4 + Issues  Length/quality  Age Group  Progression  Local jobs  Trailblazer to Qualification

11. IAG Problems? When asked 'Which paths do you predominantly educate your students on?' and provided with a list of possible options, almost all (92%) stated that they promote university options over all others, whilst only 57% admitted to informing young people about the apprenticeship and vocational training available to them. (Notgoingtouni 2015)

12. Lifting the Cap? Australia (2013) Significant increase in enrolments More enrolled from middle-ranking eligibility grades Some improvement in enrolments from lower socio-economic groups Lower/Middle–ranking HEIs grew fastest – often on teaching/nursing courses; Group of 8 less interested Perceptions of ‘dilution of standards’ – not proven Students less prepared for HE study? – evidence of improvements in HEI transition and support services. TAFE colleges – protection; some expansion from a low base

13. HE Student Enrolments

14. Enrolment Trends by Institution Some RG – Exeter, Brum, Bristol – expanded Those who have expanded continuing to expand; those contracted continuing to contract – across all tariff groups Evidence of lowering grade offers Improved transition/academic support offer UCAS Acceptances; 54% of providers decreased in size -11-14

15. College HE: Changing shape and Enrolment stability Prescribed HE (08/09 – 12/13): Increase in full time courses and part-time HNC courses; Trend from part time to full time courses, such as education and business studies; 50% decline in part time ITT and Creative Arts; Majority in 08/09 – 25+; in 12/13 – under 21 Small increase in part time engineering and construction. NPHE: 11% decline over 5 years, 95% - part time; All regions experienced a decrease except London and South West; 61% of NPHE at level four; 86% of students over 25;

16. Pipeline – Growth in Vocational Qualifications

17. BTEC qualifications, increased from 13.5 per cent in 2008 to 23.8 per cent in 2014

18. Access to HE Diploma Registrations up by 2,000 from ‘12 to ’13 (44.7) 50% over 25 70% completion Most popular subjects: Health and Care; Arts and Humanities; Nursing/AHP; Science Applied/accepted to HE 2011-12 entry 31,525; 21,505 2012-13 entry 32,230; 21,875 2013-14 entry 34,440; 23,305

19. Thanks Any Questions? Nick Davy: nick_davy@aoc.co.uknick_davy@aoc.co.uk