1. Anticipatory Planning using Execution Monitoring and a Constrained Planning Frontier John M. D. Hill Lieutenant Colonel, U. S. Army Assistant Professor, USMA Ph.D. Candidate, TAMU Dr. Udo W. Pooch Department of Computer Science Texas A&M University College Station, Texas Dr. John R. “Buck” Surdu Major, U. S. Army Senior Researcher, ITOC West Point, New York

2. Agenda Introduction How we plan now and what we can do about it The Anticipatory Planning methodology A simple scenario Some ideas from the scenario A simple example of the methodology Status of the research Conclusion

3. How we plan now Traditional Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) focuses on developing a few friendly Courses of Action (COAs) against the “most-likely / most- dangerous” enemy COAs This results in a very detailed plan that considers only a few branches There is a well-known axiom in the military that “No plan survives the first shot” - this is another way of saying that a branch has occurred during execution which was not included in the plan When this happens, the commander and the staff immediately transition into reactive mode This is a bad thing!

4. What can we do? The Army needs a new way to perform planning while executing the operation so that it retains “option dominance” General (ret.) Wass de Czege has proposed an entirely new approach to military planning and execution called “Anticipatory Planning” that merges planning and execution As many branches as are reasonably possible are developed in the initial process, and as execution progresses the plan is continuously updated based on actual events Future branches that are known to be invalid are nominated for pruning and new branches are developed – well before they occur in execution Planning effort is expended on the most likely or most valuable branches Computational power, modern planning techniques, and rapid simulation can be applied to this problem to produce a powerful new planning and execution methodology and support system

5. Planning Executive Proposed Methodology WorldView Plan Description World Integrator Execution Monitors Planners Data from the current, real operation (e.g., ABCS, GCCS, etc.) Real information plus “dead reckoned” information Plan InformationControl Information Branches Generator Branch Evaluator

6. Major Components World View –Keeps track of the Actual State of the operation Plan Description –Represents the possible ways the operation can proceed –Nodes retain the Planned States; Branches have pre-conditions Planning Executive –Monitors use of system resources and determines the priority of planning –Controls the instantiation and activities of Execution Monitors and Planners –Constrains the Planning Space and the Planning Frontier Execution Monitor –Conducts forward simulation from the Actual State to produce an Anticipated State at its monitored Node –Determines the significance of differences between the Anticipated State and the Planned State at that Node, then makes a recommendation to the Planning Executive if re-planning is appropriate Planner –Invokes a Branches Generator to develop significant, representative Branches –Invokes a Branch Evaluator to determine Viability and Likelihood Measures

7. Simple Scenario Blue Force mission: –Secure the Eastern Pass –Don’t let the Red Force secure the Western Pass Red Force mission: secure the Western Pass There is a time constraint

8. Plan One Red Force actions –Wait at the Eastern Pass Blue Force actions: –Wait at the Western Pass Plan Quality (Blue perspective) –Red does not secure Western Pass –No Casualties –FAILS to secure Eastern Pass –Unrealistic Red option Plan Description Task Lists

9. Plan Two Red Force actions –Move south to the Western Pass Blue Force actions: –Move south, engage Red, move to the Eastern Pass Plan Quality (Blue perspective) –Red does not secure Western Pass –Acceptable(?) casualties –Secures the Eastern Pass –More realistic Red option Plan Description Task Lists

10. Plan Three Red Force actions –Move north to the Western Pass Blue Force actions: –Move south, engage Red (oops!) –Move to the Eastern Pass Plan Quality (Blue perspective) –Red secures Western Pass –No casualties –Secures the Eastern Pass –More intelligent Red option Plan Description Task Lists

11. Basic ideas Entities have attributes and can be assigned tasks A Plan Description is composed of many actions taken by the entities The possibility of an entity choosing a different task results in a Task Choice Point (TCP) Emanating from the TCP, Branches represent the flow of the battle for each choice Typically, TCPs are binary (keep moving south, or move north instead), but can have several branches Some paths (chain of Branches) through the Plan Description are better than others (in terms of how well they accomplish the mission)

12. Not-so-obvious ideas Outcomes can be deterministic or probabilistic If you can’t plan all the way to completion, a local measure of the viability of a Branch is a useful heuristic There are very many possible Task Change Points, but in reality there are usually only a few good ones When making a plan, remember that there is an adversary actively trying to make it fail

13. Simple Methodology Example Node with an Execution Monitor Actual State of the Operation Node with a Planned State

14. Invalidation of Branches Actual State of the Operation Invalidated Branch Node with a Planner

15. Re-Planning Actual State of the Operation Newly Generated Still Invalidated Newly Invalidated Re-Validated Nominated for pruning

16. Planning Frontier and Planning Space Actual State of the Operation Planning Space Planning Frontier

17. Status Simulations - built two special-purpose simulations –OpSim – Surdu, Haines, Pooch –HexGrid – Hill, Surdu, Pooch Planner –Tactical Event Resolver – Hill, Miller, Yen, Pooch Genetic Algorithm, Crisp rules –Extending this planner using concepts from Gilmer, et al., on trajectory management to produce representative branches Execution Monitoring –Good results from Surdu’s Simulation during Operations project (Operations Monitors) –Extending Operations Monitors to work with the Plan Description Plan Description –Mostly developed, but still working issues of domain- specificity and the “publish-and-subscribe” approach

18. Conclusion The Anticipatory Planning process accounts for the chaotic nature of warfare in which possibilities appear and disappear The purpose of this research is: –To maintain as many viable options in the plan as possible –To focus planning effort where it will do the most good –To help the commander and staff identify decisions that they { can | should | must } make NOW to ensure a desired option is available LATER The Anticipatory Planning process, aided by an automated support system built on the Anticipatory Planning methodology, will help U. S. forces achieve option dominance, providing a decisive advantage Come to WinterSim 2000 in December in Orlando to see our results!

19. Questions?

20. Planning Techniques Contingency Planning –Develop and consider every possible branch –Not feasible for large planning spaces Probabilistic –Assign probabilities to branches and consider the most likely –Still have to develop a lot of branches –Sensitive to changes in the probabilities Interleaved Execution and Planning –Observe the results of execution, then plan based on the new information –Not a good idea to wait to find out what happens to start planning Reactive Planning –Develop reaction rules for specific conditions –Difficult to build enough rules to cover all possible conditions