1. Chapter 6
Public Opinion, Political Socialization and the Media

2. Public Opinion
Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population
No one public opinion; many different “publics”
Key role in policymaking
A source of power in dealing with other politicians
Helps candidates identify issue concerns
Policy leaders respond to changes in public opinion about 2/3 of the time
Sets limits on government action through public pressure
Consensus opinion – general agreement on an issue
Divisive opinion – polarized between two quite different positions

3. Figure 6-1: Consensus Opinion
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush handled his job as president in the first few weeks after the September 11 terrorist attacks?
SOURCE: The Gallup Poll, January 23-25, 2003

4. Figure 6-2: Divisive Opinion
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush has handled his job as president over the past few weeks?
SOURCE: The Gallup Poll, January 23-25, 2003

5. Qualities of Public Opinion
Intensity – strength of a position
intense opinions often generate public action
intense minority can often win over a less intense majority
Fluidity – extent to which public opinion changes over time
Stability – extent to which public opinion remains constant
Relevance – extent to which an issue is of concern
issues become relevant when they are viewed as of direct concern to daily life
Political knowledge – extent to which individuals are aware of an issue

6. Discussion Questions
How much should public opinion influence government decisionmakers?
Should policymakers ever ignore public opinion?
Should policymakers simply “follow the polls”?

7. Measuring Public Opinion
Opinion poll = a method of systematically questioning a small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population
Simple random sample – each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample
Most scientific; sample represents population’s diversity in demography and opinion
Quota sample – less accurate; polling organizations predetermine the characteristics of the needed sample, and then find respondents with those characteristics to fill the slots
Sampling error – difference between a sample’s results and the result if the entire population had been interviewed

8. Problems with Polls
Polls are a “snapshot in time” of potentially shifting opinions
Classic errors: presidential election polls in 1948 and 1980 (Dewey beating Truman; Carter beating Reagan)
Sampling errors (e.g., biased samples, samples too small, etc.)
Question wording/influence of interviewer
Unscientific polls (Internet, phone-in, push polls)
High non-response rates

9. Political Socialization
Process by which individuals acquire political beliefs, attitudes, and opinions
Agents/forces of political socialization…
Family
Education
Peers
Religion
Economic Status/occupation/class
Political Events
Opinion Leaders
Media/TV/Internet
Demography/Age/Gender

10. Discussion Questions
What agents of political socialization had/have the most important influence on your political opinions, beliefs, and attitudes?
In what ways are political socialization agents working on you now?
What influence has your college experience had on your political beliefs?

11. Effect of Family Most important agent of political socialization
Link to other forces of socialization
How does it work?…Communication and Receptivity
Parents communicate preferences to children
Children want to please parents and are receptive to their views
Important for party identification
Children generally follow in their parents’ footsteps when it comes to political party identification
Class poll: How many of us have followed in our parents’ footsteps when it comes to party identification?

12. Party Identification from Parent to Child
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Both Parents Democrats
59%
29%
13%
Both Parents Independents
17%
67%
16%
Both Parents Republicans
12%
SOURCE: 1992 National Election Study Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan

13. Effects of Education and Peers
Learn patriotism, structure of government and how to form positions on issues
The more education a person has, the more likely he or she will be interested in politics
Peers
Peer group = group whose members share common social characteristics
Most likely to shape political opinions when peer group is politically active

14. Effects of Religion
Traditional view was that religious groups transmit definite political preferences
Roman Catholics  more liberal
Protestants  more conservative
Jews  more liberal
More recent trends suggest…
Jews  liberal socially and economically
Non-religious  very liberal socially; mixed economically
Protestants and Catholics vary socially and economically
Powerful predictors of social conservatism among Christians (varied on economic issues)
Degree of religious commitment
Conservative, evangelical, or fundamentalist

15. Effects of Economic Status/Class
Family income a strong predictor of liberalism or conservatism
Lower income
More likely to favor government action to benefit the poor or promote economic equality
More likely to be socially conservative
More likely to be Democrat
Higher income
More likely to oppose government intervention in the economy or support it only when it benefits business
More likely to be socially liberal
More likely to be Republican or Libertarian
Socioeconomic status (SES) = best predictor of whether or not one participates in politics; an even better predictor as the activity becomes more demanding

16. Effects of Political Events
Events can shape people’s political attitudes
Generational effect = a long-lasting effect of events of a particular time on the political opinions of those who came of political age at that time
Great Depression
World War II
Vietnam War
9/11?

17. Effects of Opinion Leaders and Media
Opinion Leader = one who is able to influence the opinions of others because of position, expertise, or personality
Leaders sometimes influence the opinions of others
Media = channels of mass communication
Newspapers, television, radio and the Internet strongly influence public opinion
Sometimes shape opinion
Oftentimes not what to think, but certainly what to think about, known as agenda setting

18. Demographic Effects Region
South, Great Plains, and Rockies  Republican
West Coast and Northeast  Democratic
Residence (urban/suburban/rural)
Big cities  liberal and Democratic
Small communities  conservative and Republican
Ethnicity
African Americans more liberal
Whites  more conservative
Gender
Men more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate
Women more likely to vote for Democratic presidential candidate
Gender Gap = difference between percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of men who vote for the candidate

19. Public Opinion and Political Process
Public opinion influences policymakers and political process
Source of power
Identify key issues
Shape campaigns
Political culture = collection of beliefs and attitudes toward government and the political process held by a community or nation
Symbols
Shared beliefs
liberty, equality, property
Support for religion
Community service and personal achievement
Structure of government
Provides environment of support (trust, legitimacy)
Political trust = degree to which individuals express trust in the government and political institutions
Standard for evaluation of performance

20. Public Opinion About Government
Considerable ambivalence regarding governmental institutions
Tend to rise and fall with attitudes toward general state of the nation
Even though people may not have high levels of trust in institutions, we turn to government to solve major problems
See Tables 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3

21. Table 6-1: Trends in Political Trust
QUESTION: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time?
1968
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
% saying:
Always/
Most of the time
Some of the time 61 36 53 45 33 63 29 67 25 73 32 64 46 51 42 55 44 54 27 23 75 20 79 71 34 66 40 59 35 52
SOURCES: New York Times/CBS News Surveys; the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, National Election Studies; the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press; Council for Excellence in Government; a Washington Post poll, September 25-27, 2001; and a Gallup poll, September 2-4, 2002.

22. Table 6-2: Confidence in Institutions Trend
QUESTION: I am going to read a list of institutions in American society. Would you please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?
Percentage Saying “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot”
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2002
2003
Military 57 54 50 53 61 63 69 67 64 60 68 66 79 82
Church or organized religion 65 62 52 56 58 45
Banks and banking na 46 51 42 30 38 43 41 44 47
U.S. Supreme Court 39 49
Public schools 48 35 40 36
Television 25 29 28 24 21 33 34
Newspapers 31 32
Congress 18 19 22 26
Organized labor 23
Big business 20
na = not asked
SOURCE: Gallup poll, June 9-10, 2003.

23. Public Opinion and Policymaking
Public opinion important in policymaking
Politicians not always guided by opinion polls
Choices involving trade-offs have to be made
Informed policy choice requires understanding of policy area and consequences of any given choice
Politicians attempt to maximize the net benefits to his or her constituents while keeping within whatever the politician believes government can afford

24. Media and Politics Functions of the Media Entertainment
Reporting the news
Identifying public problems
setting the public agenda = issues perceived by the political community as meriting public attention and governmental action
Socializing new generations
Providing a political forum
Making profits
Enormous impact on politics
Shapes and reflects public opinion

25. Primacy of Television
Most influential medium (primary source of information for 90% of Americans)
Big business
Increase in news-type programming
Influence on political process
Highly superficial
“Sound bites”
Narrowcasting
Talk-show politics on TV, radio, internet
Internet (increasingly important source for political communication and fund-raising)

26. Media and Political Campaigns
Politicians use TV widely because of its importance to the public
Advertising (very costly; driving up costs of campaigns)
Negative advertising works
Can reduce participation and increase cynicism
Management of news coverage
spin = interpretation of campaign events or election results that is favorable to the candidate’s campaign strategy
spin doctors = political campaign advisor who tries to convince journalists of the truth of a particular interpretation of events
Presidential debates
Media’s impact on voters – hard to know exactly; influential among people who are undecided

27. Political Ad Spending on Broadcast TV, 1992-2000
Millions of Dollars
SOURCE: Television Bureau of Advertising, as presented in Lorraine Woellert and Tom Lowry, “A Political Nightmare: Not Enough Airtime,” Business Week, November 23, 2000, p. 111.

28. Audiences Reached by Leading Media
ABC
9,940,000
Time
4,122,699
New York Times
1,258,853
Chicago Tribune
669,629
CBS
8,020,000
NBC
9,950,000
Los Angeles
1,135,682
Times
Newsweek
3,147,497
Washington Post
658,828

29. Media and Government
Media can influence government and elected officials
Media and the Presidency
Relationship of codependency; they need each other
White House Press Corps = reporters assigned full-time to cover presidency
President’s press secretary = presidential staff member responsible for handing White House media relations and communications
Primary role of media in the U.S. = setting the public agenda; determining the policy issues that need to be addressed

30. Discussion Questions Does the media have too much power in America?
Is it possible for news organizations to remain independent of the pressure to generate ever-increasing profits through ad revenues?
Does corporate ownership influence what is and is not covered by the media?
Do we have a “free” press in the U.S.?

31. Hot Links to Selected Internet Resources
Book’s Companion Site:
Wadsworth’s Political Science Site:
Yale University Library Public Opinion Subject Guide:
National Election Studies:
The Gallup Organization:
U-Wire.com: