2. Chapter 4 The Market for Foreign Exchange Management 3460 Institutions and Practices in International Finance Fall 2003 Greg Flanagan

3. Oct 2, 2003 2 Chapter Objectives The student will be able to: Explain the Function and Structure of the FOREX Market FX Market Participants Correspondent Banking Relationships Wholesale/retail Direct and indirect

4. Oct 2, 2003 3 Chapter Objectives The student will be able to: Explain the Spot market Spot Rate Quotations S(j/k) The Bid-Ask Spread Spot FX Trading Cross Exchange Rate Quotations Triangular Arbitrage

5. Oct 2, 2003 4 Chapter Objectives The student will be able to: Explain the Forward market Forward Rate Quotations FN(j/k) Long and Short Forward Positions Forward Cross-Exchange Rates Swap Transactions Forward Premium

6. Oct 2, 2003 5 FOREX Market Participants The FOREX market is a two-tiered market: Interbank Market (Wholesale) About 700 banks worldwide stand ready to make a market in Foreign exchange. Nonbank dealers account for about 20% of the market. There are FX brokers who match buy and sell orders but do not carry inventory and FX specialists. Client Market (Retail) Market participants include international banks, their customers, nonbank dealers, FX brokers, and central banks.

7. Oct 2, 2003 6 Correspondent Banking Relationships Large commercial banks maintain demand deposit accounts with one another which facilitates the efficient functioning of the FX market. International commercial banks communicate with one another with: SWIFT: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. CHIPS: Clearing House Interbank Payments System ECHO Exchange Clearing House Limited, the first global clearinghouse for settling interbank FX transactions—in cooperation with fedwire (The US Fed reserve system).

8. Oct 2, 2003 7 Spot Rate Quotations The direct quote for British pound is: £1 = $1.5627 Country USD equiv Friday USD equiv Thursday Currency per USD Friday Currency per USD Thursday Argentina (Peso)0.33090.32923.02213.0377 Australia (Dollar)0.59060.59341.69321.6852 Brazil (Real)0.29390.28793.40253.4734 Britain (Pound)1.56271.5660.63990.6386 1 Month Forward1.55961.56290.64120.6398 3 Months Forward1.55351.55680.64370.6423 6 Months Forward1.54451.54770.64750.6461 Canada (Dollar)0.66920.67511.49431.4813 1 Month Forward0.66810.67411.49681.4835 3 Months Forward0.66580.67171.5021.4888 6 Months Forward 0.6620.66781.51061.4975

9. Oct 2, 2003 8 Spot Rate Quotations The indirect quote for British pound is: £.6399 = $1 1.49751.51060.66780.662 6 Months Forward 1.48881.5020.67170.6658 3 Months Forward 1.48351.49680.67410.66811 Month Forward 1.48131.49430.67510.6692Canada (Dollar) 0.64610.64751.54771.5445 6 Months Forward 0.64230.64371.55681.5535 3 Months Forward 0.63980.64121.56291.55961 Month Forward 0.63860.63991.5661.5627Britain (Pound) 3.47343.40250.28790.2939Brazil (Real) 1.68521.69320.59340.5906Australia (Dollar) 3.03773.02210.32920.3309Argentina (Peso) Currency per USD Thursday Currency per USD Friday USD equiv Thursday USD equiv FridayCountry

10. Oct 2, 2003 9 Spot Rate Quotations Note that the direct quote is the reciprocal of the indirect quote: 1.49751.51060.66780.662 6 Months Forward 1.48881.5020.67170.6658 3 Months Forward 1.48351.49680.67410.66811 Month Forward 1.48131.49430.67510.6692Canada (Dollar) 0.64610.64751.54771.5445 6 Months Forward 0.64230.64371.55681.5535 3 Months Forward 0.63980.64121.56291.55961 Month Forward 0.63860.63991.5661.5627Britain (Pound) 3.47343.40250.28790.2939Brazil (Real) 1.68521.69320.59340.5906Australia (Dollar) 3.03773.02210.32920.3309Argentina (Peso) Currency per USD Thursday Currency per USD Friday USD equiv Thursday USD equiv FridayCountry

11. Oct 2, 2003 10 Reciprocal FX Markets BR DirectBR Indirect 1.5627 £ Q US$ D US$ Q£Q£ S D S US Indirect US Direct.6399

12. Oct 2, 2003 11 The Bid-Ask Spread The bid price is the price a dealer is willing to pay you for something. The ask price is the amount the dealer wants you to pay for the thing. The bid-ask spread is the difference between the bid and ask prices.

13. Oct 2, 2003 12 Cross Rates Suppose that S($/€) =.50 i.e. $1 = 2 € and that S(¥/€) = 50 i.e. €1 = ¥50 What must the $/¥ cross rate be?

14. Oct 2, 2003 13 Triangular Arbitrage Credit Lyonnais S(£/$)=1.50 Credit Agricole S(¥/£)=85 Barclays S(¥/$)=120 $ £ ¥ Suppose we observe these banks posting these exchange rates. First calculate the implied cross rates to see if an arbitrage exists.

15. Oct 2, 2003 14 Triangular Arbitrage The implied S(¥/£) cross rate is S(¥/£) = 80 Credit Agricole has posted a quote of S(¥/£)=85 so there is an arbitrage opportunity. So, how can we make money? Buy the £ @ ¥80; sell @ ¥85. Then trade yen for dollars. Credit Lyonnais S(£/$)=1.50 Credit Agricole S(¥/£)=85 Barclays S(¥/$)=120 $ £ ¥

16. Oct 2, 2003 15 Triangular Arbitrage As easy as 1 – 2 – 3: Credit Lyonnais S(£/$)=1.50 Credit Agricole S(¥/£)=85 Barclays S(¥/$)=120 $ £ ¥ 1. Sell our $ for £, 1 2 2. Sell our £ for ¥, 3 3. Sell those ¥ for $.

17. Oct 2, 2003 16 Triangular Arbitrage Sell $100,000 for £ at S(£/$) = 1.50 receive £150,000 Sell our £ 150,000 for ¥ at S(¥/£) = 85 receive ¥12,750,000 Sell ¥ 12,750,000 for $ at S(¥/$) = 120 receive $106,250 profit per round trip = $ 106,250- $100,000 = $6,250

18. Oct 2, 2003 17 Spot Foreign Exchange Microstructure Market Microstructure refers to the mechanics of how a marketplace operates. Bid-Ask spreads in the spot FX market: increase with FX exchange rate volatility decrease with dealer competition. Private information is an important determinant of spot exchange rates.

19. Oct 2, 2003 18 The Forward Market A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset in the future at prices agreed upon today. If you have ever had to order an out-of- stock textbook, then you have entered into a forward contract.

20. Oct 2, 2003 19 Forward Rate Quotations The forward market for FOREX involves agreements to buy and sell foreign currencies in the future at prices agreed upon today. Bank quotes for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month maturities are readily available for forward contracts. Longer-term swaps are available.

21. Oct 2, 2003 20 Forward Rate Quotations Consider the example : for Japanese yen, the spot rate is $1.5627 = £1.00 While the 180-day forward rate is $1.5445 = £1.00 What’s up with that?

22. Oct 2, 2003 21 Spot Rate Quotations The market participants expect that the pound will be worth less in dollars in six months. 1.49751.51060.66780.662 6 Months Forward 1.48881.5020.67170.6658 3 Months Forward 1.48351.49680.67410.66811 Month Forward 1.48131.49430.67510.6692Canada (Dollar) 0.64610.64751.54771.5445 6 Months Forward 0.64230.64371.55681.5535 3 Months Forward 0.63980.64121.56291.55961 Month Forward 0.63860.63991.5661.5627Britain (Pound) 3.47343.40250.28790.2939Brazil (Real) 1.68521.69320.59340.5906Australia (Dollar) 3.03773.02210.32920.3309Argentina (Peso) Currency per USD Thursday Currency per USD Friday USD equiv Thursday USD equiv FridayCountry

23. Oct 2, 2003 22 Long and Short Forward Positions If you have agreed to sell anything (spot or forward), you are “short”. If you have agreed to buy anything (forward or spot), you are “long”. If you have agreed to sell FX forward, you are short. If you have agreed to buy forex forward, you are long.

24. Oct 2, 2003 23 Payoff Profiles S 180 ($/¥) F 180 ($/¥) =.009524 Short position 0 loss profit If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later falls then you gain. F 180 ($/¥) =.0095.0024

25. Oct 2, 2003 24 Payoff Profiles S 180 ($/¥) F 180 ($/¥) =.009524 Short position 0 loss profit If you agree to sell in the future at a set price and the spot price later rises then you lose. F 180 ($/¥) =.0096 -.0076

26. Oct 2, 2003 25 Payoff Profiles loss 0 S 180 ($/¥) Short position -F 180 ($/¥) F 180 ($/¥) Long position profit Since this is a zero-sum game, the long position payoff is the opposite of the short. F 180 ($/¥) =.009524

27. Oct 2, 2003 26 Forward Cross Exchange Rates It’s just an “delayed” example of the spot cross rate discussed above. In generic terms

28. Oct 2, 2003 27 SWAPS A swap is an agreement to provide a counterparty with something he wants in exchange for something that you want. Swap transactions are a simultaneous sale of spot FX and a forward purchase of an equal amount (or vice versus) account for approximately 56 percent of interbank FX trading, whereas outright trades are 11 percent.

29. Oct 2, 2003 28 Forward Premium It’s just the interest rate differential implied by forward premium or discount. For example, suppose the € is appreciating from S($/€) =.5235 to F 180 ($/€) =.5307 The forward premium is given by: