1. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Overview September 2003

2. ISSUE: Human demand for ecosystem services is quickly growing around the world… Water One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity. Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years Food Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years Timber Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population. Wood demand will double in next 50 years.

3. ISSUE: A recent study* shows that the capacity of many ecosystems to provide certain services has been declining… Excellent Good Fair Poor Bad Not Assessed Agro-ecosystem Coastal Systems Forest Systems Freshwater Grasslands Food-Fiber Production Water Quality Water Quantity Biodiversity Carbon Storage Increasing Decreasing Mixed Condition of Ecosystem Changing Capacity Key *Source: Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems. 2000. WRI, IFPRI Ecosystem Type Services

4. ISSUE: Despite knowledge of the increasing demand and diminishing or endangered supply, science is not being effectively brought to bear on these challenges…  Existing mechanisms for linking science and policy are highly sectoral whereas the major problems today are increasingly multisectoral.  Such mechanisms include: Forest Resource Assessment, World Water Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, etc.  Significant issues identified by scientists are not on policy agendas.  E.g., Change in nitrogen and phosphorous cycles receives little attention outside of scientific literature  New data sources, methodologies and models are underutilized in many countries.  E.g., Remote sensing tools and data; Scenarios development

5. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is: An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004 Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of  Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD),  Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD),  Ramsar Wetlands Convention,  other partners including the private sector and civil society Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build capacity to provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it successfully meets needs

6. The MA focuses on: Ecosystem services The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth

7. Ecosystem Services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems Regulating Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes climate regulation disease regulation flood regulation detoxification Provisioning Goods produced or provided by ecosystems food fresh water fuel wood fiber biochemicals genetic resources Cultural Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems spiritual recreational aesthetic inspirational educational communal symbolic Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services Soil formation Nutrient cycling Primary production

8. The MA considers the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being

9. The MA is an Integrated Assessment IPCC looks at impacts of one driver (climate) on different systems; MA will integrate the effects of multiple drivers on all ecosystems Driver Response Human Impact Ecosystems HealthEconomicsSocial Climate Change Land Cover Change Biodiversity Loss Nutrient Loading Etc. Millennium Assessment IPCC Climate Change Energy Sector Biodiversity Food Supply Water HealthEconomicsSocial

10. Organizational Structure of the MA Sub-Global Assessment Working Group Sub-Global Assessment Working Group Condition Scenarios Response Global Assessment Working Groups MA Board Assessment Panel Working Group Chairs Support Functions Director, Administration, Logistics, Data Management Support Functions Director, Administration, Logistics, Data Management Outreach & Engagement Review Board Chairs Chapter Review Editors

11. Status: MA Timeline of Activities 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 st Design Mtg UN Launch 2 nd Design Mtg 1 st WG Mtgs 2 nd WG Mtgs Conceptual Framework Report Release 3 rd WG Mtgs Joint WG Mtg Begin Review Board Approval Assessment & Synthesis Release & Outreach Review WG Mtgs

12. The MA Board and design are reflective of a full spectrum of stakeholder groups: Private sector MA has developed a close relationship with the World Business Council on Sustainable Development Individual companies are represented by Board members MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries such as credit agencies, institutional investors, and trade organizations Media and Public National and sub-national governments ~180 governments have endorsed the MA through their participation in international conventions Administrative authorities are also engaged as users at other levels International organizations The MA was featured as a key action in the UN Secretary- General’s “Millennium Report”, April 2000 The MA was launched by Kofi Annan, June 2001 13 international institutions are directly represented on the MA Board Local communities and civil society Traditional knowledge of indigenous groups will be incorporated in the MA MA has been designed to meet some assessment needs of indigenous and local communities MA will provide information to various news outlets, journals, etc. Findings may become part of a public information campaign on ecosystems

13. Status: Development of Content Conceptual Framework Report completed 500 Authors, 80 countries 2-3 meetings of each Working Group Cross-cut meetings: Biodiv, Drivers, Health, Food, Marine, Water Zero order draft chapters for ~all chapters except Sub- Global 10 Sub-global assessments approved 12 additional ‘candidates’ Review Board established Core datasets available On-line data catalog and exploration tool Cross-check against user needs

14. Status: Process of User Engagement Strengthened CBD and Ramsar Authorization and CCD links CMS new authorizing convention Country strategies underway in 25 countries (e.g., national user forums during 2003 involving ~700 people) Private sector industry group briefings + WBCSD workshops Board communications committee 20 National Academies as partners

16. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) First MA Product, published September 2003

17. Conceptual Framework Report: “Ecosystems and Human Well-Being” Purpose:  To provide a unified approach, rationale, and terminology for the assessment All members of the assessment panel and CLAs from all Working Groups were engaged in writing  To inform MA users as well as the scientific community of the nature of the product to come and its foundation  To provide information to those interested in applying elements of the MA in other assessment activities

18. Conceptual Framework

19. Using the Conceptual Framework as a guide, MA Working Groups will try to answer core questions Scenarios Working Group  Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well- being? Responses Working Group  What can we do about it? Sub-Global Assessment Working Group All of the above… at sub-global scales Conditions and Trends Working Group  What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services?  What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well- being?

20. Condition and Trends Assessment Report IIntroduction CF, Methods, Drivers, Biodiversity, Human Well-Being and Vulnerability IIEcosystem Services Analysed by major ecosystem services IIICondition and Causality – Analyzed by Ecosystems Multiple services from various systems IVSynthesis

21. MA Reporting Categories or “Systems” examples MARINE Ocean, with fishing typically a major driver of change Marine areas where the sea is deeper than 50 meters. COASTAL Interface between ocean and land, extending seawards to about the middle of the continental shelf and inland to include all areas strongly influenced by the proximity to the ocean Area between 50 meters below mean sea level and 50 meters above the high tide level or extending landward to a distance 100 kilometers from shore. Includes coral reefs, intertidal zones, estuaries, coastal aquaculture, and seagrass communities. INLAND WATER Permanent water bodies inland from the coastal zone, and areas whose ecology and use are dominated by the permanent, seasonal, or intermittent occurrence of flooded conditions Rivers, lakes, floodplains, reservoirs, and wetlands; includes inland saline systems. Note that the Ramsar Convention considers “wetlands” to include both inland water and coastal categories.

22. Goal: Develop scenarios that embrace a useful range of plausible futures of the world’s ecosystem services  Our vision of scenarios Embrace plausible outcomes of unpredictable and ambiguous drivers (as well as predictable ones)  Emphasize surprises, not central tendencies Consistent with state-of-the-art ecological information  Quantitative and qualitative To the year 2050 (slices looking at years between now and then)

23. Rosy Techno Fix Varied Expt Develop Fix Fortress More Positive More Neutral More Negative Joint Development with Responses Working Group Retrospective Based on Millennium Development Goals No new modeling Developed by Scenarios Working Group Prospective Quantified

24. Relationships and Interactions of People and Nature connected disaggregated Global institutions responsiveproactive Approach to cross-scale feedbacks Development Fix Fortress Technological fix Varied Experiments Scenarios Framework

25. Scenarios Assessment Report Outline Executive Summary Preface Chapter 1. History of global scenarios Chapter 2. Ecology in global scenarios Chapter 3. Driving forces Chapter 4. Assessment of quantification and modeling approaches Chapter 5. Methods Chapter 6. Preamble to the scenarios Chapter 7. Storylines Chapter 8. Ecosystem goods and services across the scenarios Chapter 9. Human well-being across the scenarios Chapter 10. Trade-offs among ecosystem services Chapter 11. Synthesis: Lessons learned Chapter 12. Synthesis: Policy implications

26. Responses Working Group Timeline 1 st WG Meeting: New Delhi, June 2002 Zero Order Drafts: March 2003 2 nd WG Meeting: Frankfurt, May 2003

27. Responses are defined as the range of policies or measures that impact the state and functioning of ecosystems: Measures that impact eco-systems directly or indirectly Initiated by decision makers at global, regional or local levels Legal, economic, financial, institutional, technological, social or cognitive interventions Planned to affect indirect drivers, direct drivers, or human well-being Responses in the MA

28. Part I: Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Responses Part II: Assessment of Past and Current Responses Part III: Synthesis: “Ingredients for successful responses” Responses Assessment Report Structure

29. Multiple Scales The MA is a multi-scale assessment - it is expected that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will differ from those of a single-scale assessment as a result of information and perspectives from other scales Regional Users Regional Development Banks, etc. National Government Local Community Global Assessment National Local Why undertake a multi-scale assessment? Permit social and ecological processes to be assessed at their characteristic scale Allow greater spatial, temporal, causal detail to be considered as scale becomes finer Allow independent validation of larger-scale conclusions Permit reporting and response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place

31. MA Cross-cutting Issues Prague Combined WG Condition Scenarios Responses Sub-Global 2002 20032004 Biodiversity HealthCoastal Marine Food Water DrylandsDrivers Seven issues were identified that cut across all working groups. Special meetings have been held to address these “cross-cutting” issues.

32. What are the Outputs of the Global Assessment? 2003 People and Ecosystems: A Framework for Assessment  Release: September MA Data Catalog  Datasets being used in the MA 2004 Conference Proceedings: Bridging Scales and Epistemologies in Multi-scale Assessments 2005 Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.) and Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs)  Sub-global Assessment  Condition/Trends Assessment  Scenario Assessment  Response Options Assessment  Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

33. 2005 Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)  Ecosystems and Human Well-being  Biodiversity (CBD)  Desertification (CCD)  Wetlands (Ramsar)  Private Sector  Health and Ecosystems (tentative)  Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative) Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.) Other Products  Reports available over internet (multiple language for summary docs)  Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration capability  Partnerships for expanded outreach: radio, theatre, documentaries, film (tentative)  Partnerships for capacity-building/training outreach (tentative) Assessment Outputs: Global (continued)

34. India  Pilot Assessment (2000)  Final Assessment (2005) Southern Africa Assessment  Pilot Assessment (2002)  Final Assessment (2005) Norway Pilot Assessment (2002) Coastal British Columbia (Final 2004) Small Islands of Papua New Guinea (Final 2005) Laguna Lake Basin Philippines (Final 2005) Northern Range Trinidad (Final 2005) Sweden Local Assessments (Final 2005) Salar de Atacama, Chile (Final 2005) Mekong Wetlands, Vietnam (Final 2005) Sinai Peninsula (Final 2005) Western China (Final 2006) What are the Outputs of the Sub-Global Assessments?

35. Capacity Building A Central Objective of the MA, capacity building will occur through multiple outlets: Access to Data/Information Sub-Global Assessments Training Materials Young Fellows Program Scenarios and Modeling Training Course Partnerships for Distance Learning The Secretariat remains open to the identification and development of other capacity building opportunities during the course of the assessment.

36. Director’s Office The World Fish Center (ICLARM), Malaysia Director’s Office The World Fish Center (ICLARM), Malaysia Sub-Global TSU, ICLARM, Malaysia Sub-Global TSU, ICLARM, Malaysia Condition TSU UNEP-WCMC, U.K. (& South Africa) Condition TSU UNEP-WCMC, U.K. (& South Africa) Scenarios TSU SCOPE, France (& Italy, United States) Scenarios TSU SCOPE, France (& Italy, United States) Response Options TSU Institute for Economic Growth, India (& RIVM, Netherlands) Response Options TSU Institute for Economic Growth, India (& RIVM, Netherlands) GEF, UNF Grant Administration UNEP,Kenya GEF, UNF Grant Administration UNEP,Kenya Distributed Secretariat Individuals and Organizations around the world support the entire process Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute, USA Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute, USA Meeting Support Meridian Institute, USA Meeting Support Meridian Institute, USA TSU: Technical Support Unit. Organizations/countries listed in parentheses provide or host additional support and technical staff

37. FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS (~ $17 MILLION) MA receives financial and in-kind contributions from a variety of sources Sponsors Global Environment Facility United Nations Foundation Packard Foundation World Bank United Nations Environment Program Other Donors Government of Norway Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Rockefeller Foundation NASA ICSU Swedish International Biodiversity Programme Christensen Fund IN-KIND CONTRIBUTIONS (~ $6 MILLION) Norway China India Japan Germany Netherlands United States (NASA, USGS, ORNL, USDA) European Commission FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP ICRAF, ICLARM Numerous other countries, NGOs, Universities and other institutions are supporting travel costs of experts

38. Visit the MA Website www.millenniumassessment.org