1. NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008 Impact of Efficiency Improvements on the Energy System: 2000 W Society Concept in Perspective Stefan Hirschberg NEEDS Forum 3 Cairo, Egypt, 28 January 2008

2. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 2NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Introduction: 2000 W Society Swiss energy system Historical importance of increasing energy efficiency Goals for future increase of energy efficiency Energy efficiency potential in Switzerland and impacts on Swiss energy supply Economic and ecologic efficiency Conclusions Content

3. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 3NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments The vision of the 2000-Watt society Source: novatlantis ETH-domain vision of 2000 Watt society: „Aspiration of achieving economic growth as planned, while using distinctly less primary energy and clearly reducing CO 2 emissions“. Fossil fuels Nuclear fuels Hydro Power Other Renewables Watt per capita Fossil fuels Non-fossil fuels Technological reduction potential

4. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 4NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Human development Index vs. energy consumption Source: Energy-Mirror No.18, 2007

5. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 5NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Development of energy consumption in Switzerland Source: Energy-Mirror No.18, 2007

6. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 6NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Efficiency in the energy sector: What does it mean? Source: energieschweiz 2007, adapted Energy supplyEnergy consumption NationalInternational Less energy intensive behaviour Comprehensive energy efficiency (primary energy demand) Research and development Efficient conversion and distribution (mainly electricity) Renewable Energy Efficient infrastructure (e.g. public transport) Energy efficiency on the level of end energy demand Use of efficient technologies User behaviour Material efficiency More cincentrated structure of settlements Net import of grey energy International flights

7. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 7NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Swiss energy system performs well compared to other countries: Relatively low primary energy demand & CO 2 -emissions Reasons: Structure of the energy system – Hydro and nuclear power for electricity production Structure of the economy – few energy intensive industries, extensive service sector Thesis I

8. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 8NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Energy flows in Switzerland (2005) Households 29.6% Industry 19.5% Services 16.7% Traffic 32.5% Source: BFE 2006 Primary Energy 1‘132‘660 TJ End Energy 890‘440 TJ Agriculture 1.7% 66% fossil

9. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 9NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Greenhouse gas emissions, Switzerland, direct & indirect (grey ) Source: BAFU 2007

10. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 10NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Efficiency improvements have played a very important role in the past and will do so also in the future. Thesis II

11. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 11NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Impact of efficiency Improvements on energy consumption Source: IEA (2007)

12. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 12NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Industry: Structural & „real“ efficiency improvements, 1982-1998 Source: Unander 2007 Impact of structural changes on energy consumption

13. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 13NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Energy intensity of the economy: CH / EU Source: BFE 2006 Schweiz EU: Energy intensity [MJ End energy per GDP (CHF 1990 )] In the 1990‘s, yearly increase in energy efficiency was ~1.4%; since year 2000, the rate decreased to only ~0.5% current policy is NOT sufficient Switzerland

14. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 14NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Energy Efficiency: one step towards less CO 2 emissions Source: Energie-Spiegel No.10, 2003

15. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 15NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Energieefficiency: Power plants Source: NEEDS, PSI, to be published

16. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 16NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Efficiency improvements are necessary and highly important but alone not sufficient to respond to the principle goals of sustainable energy policies. Thesis III

17. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 17NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Kaya Equation Implications CO 2 Emissions = Carbon content of energy x Energy intensity x Production x Population of economy per person Goal: Reduction by 50% until 2050 Increase by factor 1.5 (IPCC 2000) Needs to be reduced by factor of 3 to reach the goal Increase by factor 1.65 (1% growth per year) Needs to be reduced by factor of 5 to reach the goal Decrease by factor 2.5 (-1.8% per year in alternative scenario of IEA 2004) Needs to be reduced by factor of 2 to reach the goal Necessitates very strong expansion of ”carbon-free” energy sources

18. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 18NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Kaya Equation Implications CO 2 Emissions = Carbon content of energy x Energy intensity x Production x Population of economy per person Goal: Reduction by 50% until 2050 Increase by factor 1.5 (IPCC 2000) Needs to be reduced by factor of 3 to reach the goal Increase by factor 2.15 (1.6% growth per year) Needs to be reduced by factor of 6.5 to reach the goal Decrease by factor 1.6 (-1% per year) Needs to be reduced by factor of 4 to reach the goal Necessitates very strong expansion of all “carbon-free” technologies

19. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 19NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments We can reduce energy consumption in Switzerland by use of most efficient technologies until 2050 by maximum 30%. Energy efficiency alone does not guarrantee a substantial reduction of fossil fuel uses and thus CO 2 -emissions. Very ambitious reductions of CO 2 -emissions do not necessarily require reaching the 2000 Watt level per person. Thesis IV

20. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 20NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Swiss energy system (2050): reduced energy consumption & CO 2 -emissions Source: Schulz 2007

21. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 21NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Swiss energy system (2050): reduced primary energy consumption & CO 2 -emissions No limit CO 2 reduction per decade 2010 - 2050 Primary Energy per capita target Source: Schulz 2007

22. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 22NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Additional costs in efficiency scenarios Source: Schulz 2007

23. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 23NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Additional costs in efficiency scenarios No limit CO 2 reduction per decade 2010 - 2050 Primary Energy per capita target Source: Schulz 2007

24. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 24NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments A substantially higher energy efficiency is feasible in Switzerland – especially in the building and transport sectors. → energy consumption can be substantially reduced. Thesis V

25. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 25NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Heat supply in households (3.5 kW PE -Scenario) Source: Schulz 2007

26. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 26NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Heat supply in households (Scenario 3.5 kW PE / -10% CO 2 per decade) Source: Schulz 2007

27. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 27NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Mobility: End energy consumption 3.5 kW PE 3.5 kW PE / -10% CO 2 pro Decade Sopurce: Schulz 2007

28. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 28NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Electricity in the future will be more important than ever for our service economy. Therefore maintaining CO 2 -free electricity production will be decisive for enabling effective and ambitious reduction of CO 2 -emissions. Thesis VI

29. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 29NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Electricity generation in CH (2050) with lower energy consumption & CO 2 -emissions Source: Schulz 2007

30. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 30NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Electricity generation in CH (2050) with lower energy consumption & CO 2 -emissions No limit CO 2 reduction per decade 2010 - 2050 Primary Energy per capita target 2005: 57,9 TWh Source: Schulz 2007

31. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 31NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Impact of efficiency increase on the end energy consumption until 2035 Source: energieschweiz 2007 Technologic-economic savings Possible consumption 2035

32. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 32NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Total (internal plus external) costs of energy systems (though controversial) reflect economic & ecologic efficiency of the various options. Accounting for external costs is favourable to renewables and nuclear. Technology improvements can change the „ranking“ of the options – some renewables have the most promising improvement potentials. Thesis VII

33. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 33NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Total costs of current and future electricity supply systems Source: Hirschberg et al., 2007

34. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 34NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments 0 5 10 15 20 25 NPP, Gen II Steam-PP, Hard Coal, D CC, Natural gas CHP, Natural gas SOFC, Natural gas CHP, Biogas CHP, CH 4 from wood (SNG) Hydro: Run-of-river Hydro: reservoir Wind onshore, CH Wind onshore, D Wind offshore, DK Photovoltaic Geothermal Rp 2000 /kWh 17778 External Internal 0 5 10 15 20 25 Rp 2000 /kWh 39 External Internal NPP, EPR 1500 IGCC, Hard Coal, D CC, Natural gas CHP, Natural gas SOFC, Natural gas CHP, Biogas CHP, CH 4 from wood (SNG) Hydro: Run-of-river Hydro: reservoir Wind onshore, CH Wind onshore, D Wind offshore, DK Photovoltaic Geothermal Full Costs (internal + external), 2006 2030 Options for electricity supply in CH, 2006 & 2030 Including external costs increases competitiveness of renewables and nuclear Renewables till 2030 much cheaper than today Basis: Life Cycle + Impact Ass- essment of current & future systems Nuclear power as cheapest option: today & 2030 Full costs as ONE aggregated sustainability indicator CO 2 dominates ext. costs of fossil systems: high uncertainty Source: GaBE/PSI for Axpo, 2007 Sustainability assessment of Axpo‘s technology portfolio

35. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 35NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Full costs (internal + external), year 2000 Source: GaBE/PSI for Axpo, 2007

36. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 36NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Full costs (internal + external), year 2030 Source: GaBE/PSI for Axpo, 2007

37. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 37NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Electricity from New renewables: Long-term potential (CH) Shares in total electricity production 2004 Long-term PSI-GaBE/BFE Energieperspektiven; Hirschberg et al. 2005 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35% Photovoltaic Wind power Geothermal Biomass Small hydro <1 MW max. 16% ? max. 7.3% max. 33% max. 2.2%

38. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 38NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Electricity from New renewables : Potential & costs (CH) Costs [Rp/kWh] 0%1%2%3%4%5%6% Photovoltaic Wind power Geothermal Biomass Small hydro < 1 MW 2.0% 3.6 - 5.5% 0 - 3.6% 1.1% 0.2 - 4.9% Shares in total electricity production 2000 2035 5-25 4-20 20-40 10-30 7-15 12-25 12-15 50-90 22-42 No unit operational 2004 2035 PSI-GaBE/BFE Energieperspektiven; Hirschberg et al. 2005

39. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 39NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments BFE-Energieperspektiven (2035/2050): PSI-contribution Share in electricity production: today 3%, until 2035 10% realistic Additional costs: 300 – 500 CHF/year Geothermal currently speculativ PSI-GaBE/BFE Energieperspektiven; Hirschberg et al. 2005

40. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 40NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Electricity from New renewables: Potential & costs Electricity from new nuclear plants: Potential & costs Source: Hirschberg et al. 2005 Share in electricity consumption: today 3% 10% achievable until 2035 Additional costs: 500 MCHF per year Geothermal: speculative Utilisation of existing sites Technology: EPR available Costs: 4-5 Rp./kWh Critical Factor: Acceptance

41. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 41NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Transformation of our overall energy system, in particular of energy use in residential and transportation sectors, is needed and requires targeted long-term policy measures. All primary energy per capita consumption targets until 2050 can reduce CO 2 emissions to an equivalent of 5% per decade at most. For more ambitious CO 2 -emission reductions corresponding targets must be formulated and pursued. Conclusions

42. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 42NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments The transformation is associated with sizeable costs. Following ambitious combined primary energy per capita and CO 2 targets is more expensive than following strict CO 2 reduction targets. The production of electricity will increase substantially. Efficiency improvements are of central importance for meeting the main sustainable policy goals. They are part of a mix of several options that also includes carbon-free technologies. Conclusions (continued)

43. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 43NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Explicit goals are needed for the strong reduction of CO 2 -emissions. The goal of just reducing primary energy is not adequate. We need ambitious but realistic goals for 2050: 3–4 t CO 2 per capita with maximum 1500-2000 Watt fossil energy. Transformation of our overall energy system, in particular of energy use in residential and transportation sectors, is needed and requires targeted long- term policy measures. The transformation is associated with sizeable costs. The production of electricity will increase substantially. Efficiency improvements are of central importance for meeting the main sustainable policy goals. They are part of a mix of several options that also includes carbon-free technologies. Conclusions

44. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 44NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Environmental Indicators, 2000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NPP, Gen II, CH NPP, Gen II, FR Hydro: reservoir Hydro: run-of-river Hard Coal, SC, D Natural Gas, CC, baseload, CH Natural Gas, CC, midload, CH Natural Gas, CC, baseload, IT CHP, biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind, onshore, CH Wind, onshore, D Wind, offshore, DK Geothermal Relative to specific Maximum (=100%) Fossil energyUranium MetalsGHG emissions Land useEcotoxicity Acidification & EutrophicationLand contamination Non radioactive wasteRadioactive waste

45. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 45NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Environmental Indicators, 2000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NPP, Gen II, CH NPP, Gen II, FR Hydro: reservoir Hydro: run-of-river Hard Coal, SC, D Natural Gas, CC, baseload, CH Natural Gas, CC, midload, CH Natural Gas, CC, baseload, IT CHP, biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind, onshore, CH Wind, onshore, D Wind, offshore, DK Geothermal Relative to specific Maximum (=100%) Metals Ecotoxicity Non radioactive waste

46. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 46NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Environmental Indicators, 2000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NPP, Gen II, CH NPP, Gen II, FR Hydro: reservoir Hydro: run-of-river Hard Coal, SC, D Natural Gas, CC, baseload, CH Natural Gas, CC, midload, CH Natural Gas, CC, baseload, IT CHP, biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind, onshore, CH Wind, onshore, D Wind, offshore, DK Geothermal Relative to specific Maximum (=100%) Uranium Land contamination Radioactive waste

47. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 47NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Environmental Indicators, 2000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NPP, Gen II, CH NPP, Gen II, FR Hydro: reservoir Hydro: run-of-river Hard Coal, SC, D Natural Gas, CC, baseload, CH Natural Gas, CC, midload, CH Natural Gas, CC, baseload, IT CHP, biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind, onshore, CH Wind, onshore, D Wind, offshore, DK Geothermal Relative to specific Maximum (=100%) Land use Acidification & Eutrophication

48. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 48NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Environmental Indicators, 2030 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NPP, Gen III, CH NPP, Gen III, FR Hydro: reservoir Hydro: run-of-river Hard Coal, IGCC, D Natural Gas, CC, baseload, CH Natural Gas, CC, midload, CH Natural Gas, CC, baseload, IT CHP, biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind, onshore, CH Wind, onshore, D Wind, offshore, DK Geothermal Relative to specific Maximum (=100%) Fossil energyUranium MetalsGHG emissions Land useEcotoxicity Acidification & EutrophicationLand contamination Non radioactive wasteRadioactive waste

49. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 49NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments External costs, new power plants, 2000 (air pollution) NPP, Gen II, CH NPP, Gen II FR Hydro: Run-of-river Hydro: reservoir Hard coal SC, D CC, Nat. Gas, baseload, CH CC, Nat. Gas, mid-load, CH CC, Nat. Gas, baseload, IT CHP, Biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind onshore, CH Wind onshore, D Wind offshore, DK Geothermal

50. Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 50NEEDS Forum 3 Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments External costs, 2030 (air pollution) NPP, Gen III, CH NPP, Gen III FR Hydro: Run-of-river Hydro: reservoir Hard coal SC, D CC, Nat. Gas, baseload, CH CC, Nat. Gas, mid-load, CH CC, Nat. Gas, baseload, IT CHP, Biogas CHP, Natural Gas CHP, SNG SOFC, Natural Gas PV, c-Si PV, a-Si Wind onshore, CH Wind onshore, D Wind offshore, DK Geothermal