1. An Earth system satellite mission? Paul Palmer, Claire Bulgin, and Siegfried Gonzi http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/eochem

2. The Earth System Mismatch between models and data

3. Talk outline Solutions Example science challenges Concluding remarks

4. Develop a framework of rapid response instruments? Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles? Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth? 3 possible solutions

5. The velocity of climate change Loarie et al, Nature, 2009 Ratio of temporal and spatial gradients of mean annual near-surface T = instantaneous local velocity necessary to maintain constant T

6. Some potential tipping points in the Earth system

7. Develop a framework of rapid response instruments? Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles? -- ESA ECVs -- EUMETSAT and NOAA activities Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth? 3 possible solutions

8. Develop a framework of rapid response instruments? Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles? Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth? 3 possible solutions

9. The NASA A-train is an example of the power of correlative measurements But using correlative data properly is non- trivial…examples to follow

10. 1.Source attribution of AODs 2.Quantifying pyroconvection injection heights 2 examples

11. Africa We should think about systems as well as individual components deposition Primary and secondary aerosol sources: biomass burning, biogenic, desert dust Internally or externally mixed? CCN Fe fertilization Ocean Ecosystem South AmericaAfrica visibility

12. GlobAerosol AOD retrievals from SEVIRI (0.6, 0.8, & 1.7  m) Prior information about aerosol type is required to infer AOD from observed radiances using ORAC MAP (SEVIRI = Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager)

13. maritime (0), urban (1), continental (2), biomass burning (3), and desert dust (4). GlobAerosol AOD retrieval uses brute-force approach Time of day Days

14. Additional information is available from SEVIRI and models SEVIRI Dust Index GEOS-Chem: Black carbon Sea salt GlobalAerosol MAP scheme Prior: Dust Sea salt Biomass burning Sulphate Ideal AODs GlobalAerosol MAP scheme: Dust Sea salt Biomass burning Sulphate Interrim AOD dust AOD ss AOD bb AOD so4

15. Additional information is available from SEVIRI and models Saharan Dust Index remove dust contamination in nighttime SSTretrievals. PCA of brightness temperatures (3.9—8.7  m, 2.9—12  m, and 11—12  m). GEOS-Chem Chemistry Transport Model 3-D black carbon aerosol and sea salt distributions BC evaluated via CO and TES

16. Bulgin et al, 2010 Cloudy scenes identified by EUMETSAT cloudmask

17. Bulgin et al, 2010

19. Large AOD differences has implications for quantifying climate effects

20. Bulgin et al, 2010 Future challenge will be to incorporate coexisting aerosol classes

21. Estimates of global emissions from biomass burning Biomass burning (Tg Element/yr) All Sources (Tg Element/yr) Biomass burning (%) CO 2 3500870040 O3*O3*420110038 CO350110032 NMHC2410024 NO x 8.54021 CH 4 3838010 EC192286

22. WHERE AND WHEN? Polar-orbiting satellites have sufficient coverage to infer information about variability on timescales from diurnal to year-to-year 5-years of Terra MODIS data (11/00 – 10/05)

23. HOW BIG? Bottom-up emission estimates M = A x B x a x b Grams of dry matter burned per year Total land area burned annually The average organic matter per unit area Fraction of above ground biomass relative average biomass B Burning efficiency of the above ground biomass Emission factors for flaming and smouldering fires

24. Forward model H Inverse model Observations y Emissions x BB BF Top-down methodology PosteriorPriorGain matrixObservations Forward model

25. Top-down emission estimates based on inverse model calculations or process-based models GFEDv2 CO Emissions for JJASO 2006 [g CO/m 2 ]

26. Injection height Smoke entrained in mean flow Injection height is a complex function of fuel loading, overlying meteorology, etc Transport of emissions depends on the injection height

27. NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer- MISR In orbit aboard Terra since December 1999 Stereographic projection provides information about fire smoke aerosol height layer 9 view angles at Earth surface: nadir to 70.5º forward and backward (446, 558, 672, 866 nm) 275 m - 1.1 km sampling Val Martin et al, 2010

28. We use CO as a tracer for incomplete combustion We use cloud-free data from two instruments aboard the NASA Aura spacecraft (left): Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) Over burning scenes, together they are sensitive to changes in CO from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere

29. We develop the traditional surface emission inverse problem Both sides describe the sensitivity of the measured quantity y to changes in surface emissions e We estimate emitted CO mass in five regions from 0 – 15 km. During June-October 2006 we use 1785 TES profiles (672 colocated with MLS) Omitting gory details, only 2-3% of retrievals failed.

30. Define an injection height as the maximum height at which: 1)Posterior uncertainty is smaller than prior by 50% 2)Posterior mass is higher than the prior mass 33% pass this criterion; remaining 67% assume boundary layer injection

31. We estimate an injection height of greater than 10 km (recall we estimate mass over large vertical regions) Posterior CO mass increased by 50% due to biomass burning. (Limited) evaluation of our product: Indonesia, October 2006 2 = cloud 3 = aerosol Level of neutral buoyancy = 138 hPa Nearby radiosonde

32. Disproportionate impact of large fires: C ctrl -C ptb Longitude [deg] Boreal (42-67 o N)Tropics (0-30 o S) Pressure [hPa]

33. Concluding remarks Atmosphere and land/ice/ocean missions are often on different platforms. Planned ESA/NASA missions are driven by engineering rather than science Now links realized between Earth components should we be designing Earth system missions? Eg OCO-2: CO2 OCO-3: CO2/CH4/CO/leaf phenology?