1. Ideas for Improving Hurricane Forecasts Miami June 20, 2008 Alexander E. MacDonald OAR DAA Director Earth System Research Laboratory

2. Talk Summary 1.Observing systems: UAS 2.Understanding phenomena: Air-Sea interaction. 3.Modeling: FIM, NIM

3. There are a great variety of UAS. Aerosonde Global Observer Zephyr Global Hawk AEM in situ Altair Predator B

4. NOAA UAS Program Funded! Program will apply to all NOAA missions This presentation: Tropical Storms Program Manager: Marty Ralph, FY 2008 Robbie Hood, FY 2009 Budget: $ 3.3 M in 2008, $ 6.3 M in 2009

5. Examples of Hurricane Missions for UAS: 1.Global Hawk to loiter above the hurricane. 2.Aerosonde into the hurricane at low levels. 3.Zephyr over hurricanes for days at a time. 4.WISDOM (Small super-pressure balloons)

6. NOAA is working with NASA with the goal of using the Global Hawk as a platform for hurricane recon. Global Hawk could loiter above hurricanes for extended periods, and: Dropsondes Radar sampling Scatterometry Radiometry

7. Aerosonde was launched from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility at 14:08 EST on Friday November 2, 2007. Mission endurance was 17 hours 27 minutes and resulted in 7.5 hours of data collection in the core of the hurricane at altitudes less than 100m. NOAA/NASA Noel Aerosonde UAS mission

8. Aerosonde P-3 (3500 m) Take-off from Wallops Flight Facility (KWAL) 1600 UTC Rendezvous with P-3 at storm center 0525 UTC KMCF “Eye” loitering with vertical soundings (90-1500 m) Nominal altitude for the Aerosonde prior to entering the storm’s core circulation was between 300-600m. Near the center, UAS altitude was ~150m.

9. ZEPHYR - Long Duration (Many days) UAS Built by QinetiQ Corporation (UK) Problem: Payload only 4 kg !!!!!!!

10. Zephyr HALE UAS Long endurance from solar-electric power –Weeks/months flight endurance –Operating altitude 50,000 - 65,000ft –No environmental impact Drop micro-sondes into hurricanes or monitor oceanic weather events for long periods Satcom capable – commercial Iridium Low cost platform for payloads, plus: –No regular maintenance –No operating base needed –Launch and recover from ship’s deck –Fewer personnel required –No fuel distribution network needed Zephyr flies for longer for less money –~$1m production platform cost

11. Ultra-light Dropsonde * ESRL/GSD issued RFP for dropsonde in 2006 * Spec: Closest to 20 gram sonde wins * Winner: Applied Research Associates * Delivery of test system: October 2008

12. Dropsonde Mechanical Design Foam housing 3.5 inch diameter 2.3 grams Air pathways for sensors Populated housing with attached streamer 38.3 grams

13. Dropsonde Electronics Packaging – Open cell foam w/ streamer Microprocessor – NXP LPC2138 Transmitter – TI CC1100, 300MHz – 1GHz Pressure – Intersema MS5534B Humidity – Sensiron SHT75 Temperature – Platinum RTD GPS – Ublox LEA-5S Power – ER14250, Li 1/2AA 3.6VDC

14. Production System Concepts Streamer-based dropsonde dispenser

15. Zephyr – in-situ measurement using drop-sondes Lightweight drop-sondes dispensed into developing weather event or storm at intervals to measure PTU and wind speed

16. Hurricane WISDOM: 2008 Test Briefing to NWS Silver Spring, May 6, 2008 Alexander E. MacDonald, Justyna Nicinska NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

17. Small balloons called “tetroons” can be inexpensive and easy to handle.

18. There are commercially available devices that can report GPS based 3 D location to a satellite in real time. Some weigh less than an ounce.

19. Up to 1000 balloons could be launched to eliminate initial state uncertainty.

20. Flood the data poor region with balloons.

21. 2008 Test Plan National Weather Service Interactions (1)Data made available to NCEP (EMC, NHC) in real time via internet. (2)Possible need for access to helium at RAOB sites.

22. Goal: Release balloons between August 17 and August 22 to improve track.

23. Aug 22 Aug 18 Aug 19Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 17 (1) Aug 17 model ensemble identifies target zones for Aug 22. (2) Balloons are released from Cape Verde, Florida, Cancun.

24. 2008 Test Plan Test funded at $ 1 M by DHS. Test period: August 15 to October 1. Balloons: 100 at 700 mb, 100 at 200 mb. Cape Verde and Barbados: 40 balloons each. Deployment teams: 6 teams of 2 people. Team travel kits: Duffel bag with 20 balloons, plus valves. Team travel: Commercial air. Operations center: ESRL. Nominal target storms: 2

25. Talk Summary 1.Observing systems: UAS 2.Understanding phenomena: Air-Sea interaction. 3.Modeling: FIM, NIM

26. Sea Spray Profiling Estimates Based on Fairall-Banner Model

27. Scanhead in UAS aircraft Radiometer scanhead in Altair

28. Test with Katrina (2005)

29. Talk Summary 1.Observing systems: UAS 2.Understanding phenomena: Air-Sea interaction. 3.Modeling: FIM, NIM

30. An early look at the forecast performance of the Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) Presented at ESRL Theme Presentation on “Global Weather Assimilation and Modeling”, W 7 May 2008 Forecast skill must be adequate to establish FIM’s readiness to contribute to Global Ensemble Forecast System

31. SOME SPECIFICS we use to verify FIM running regularly twice daily at ESRL - Initial conditions from 0000 and 1200 UTC initialized fields for the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) operational runs - Computational polygons are ~ 30km in diameter, covering the globe - 50 computational layers (bottom: earth’s surface GFS terrain height; top: 20 hPa) - GFS Physics Important Point: A single case proves nothing! http://fim.noaa.gov > Global or CONUS

32. Example: Tropical Depression 03W Western Pacific (FIM and GFS forecasts from 1200 UTC Tue 6 May 2008) Joint Typhoon Warning Center Warning#2 1200 UTC 7 May 2008

33. 00h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Tue 7 May 2008 +

34. 24h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Wed 7 May 2008

35. 48h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Thu 8 May 2008

36. 72h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Fri 9 May 2008

37. 96h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Sat 10 May 2008

38. 120h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Sun 11 May 2008

39. 144h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Mon 12 May 2008

40. 168h forecast of sea-level pressure (hPa - 1000) FIM GFS Valid time: 1200 UTC Tue 13 May 2008

41. Road Map of the high-end Earth System Modeling 2006-2013: The “Geodesic Grid” Planet Simulator, 3rd generation non-hydrostatic finite-volume model with 1-4 km or finer resolution. Primary model for: Medium Range Weather Prediction 0 to 2 weeks, including improve hurricane track and intensity. Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction 2 weeks to 2 years Decadal to Centennial projection A project between GFDL, ESRL, AOML and NCEP to develop the leading global model in the world.

42. Alexander.E.MacDonald@noaa.govAlexander.E.MacDonald@noaa.gov sandymacd@comcast.net