1. Insights into Ozone from SHADOZ: Strategic Design, Variability & Role in Model-Observing Systems Dr Anne Thompson NASA/Goddard & SHADOZ Team CMM-U Chile, Nov 04 thompson@gator1.gsfc.nasa.gov

2. Presentation Review O 3 “Science Questions,” Definitions Interaction of Models & Observations Design of SHADOZ Network and Key Discoveries = Challenges for Models! > Match Science Questions & Sampling (1998->) Comparison with Satellite Ozone Solve “Wave-one Mystery” Variability in tropospheric ozone (classification need) “Atlantic Paradox”  complexity of processes > Review Science Questions & Modify Network (2004) Preview Integrated Approach: Sondes-Models-Aircraft-Satellites

3. Issues: - Ozone and Aerosols – Climate, Oxidation, Pollution on Global-Regional-Urban scales - Need predictive capability (models)

4. Basic Tropospheric Chemistry Initiation: R1:O 3 + h  O( 1 D) + O 2 R2:O( 1 D) + H 2 O  2OH Chain propagation: R3:CO + OH + O 2  HO 2 + CO 2 R4a:HO 2 + NO  NO 2 + OH R4b: HO 2 + O 3  OH + 2O 2 R5:NO 2 + O 2 + h  NO + O 3 Termination: R6:OH + NO 2 + M  HNO 3 + M R7: HO 2 + HO 2  H 2 O 2 + O 2 Net (R1 – R5): R8:O 3 + H 2 O + mCO + (2m 1 -m 2 -1)O 2  mCO 2 + 2OH + (m 1 -m 2 )O 3 m m1m1 m2m2 m1m1 Net Production of O 3 :m 1 > m 2 +1 O 3 neutral: m 1 = m 2 +1 Net destruction of O 3 :m 1  m 2 m = m 1 + m 2 Multipliers

5. INTERACTION OF OBSERVATIONS & MODELS: Can O 3 Pollution Formation & Transport be: Measured from Satellite, Ground, Sondes? Quantified? Predicted?

6. Lifetime, Scientific Issue Define Observing Requirement “Junge” diagram - key species in long-range pollution transport, radiation-climate have days-weeks lifetime: ozone, aerosols, CO Require vertical profiles, weekly frequency or higher, depending on scale of phenomenon in question

7. TROPOSPHERIC OZONE UNITS Mixing ratio, ppbv; pollution > 40 ppbv, 0 km Column-integrated, DU; pollution > 25-30 DU  “Good ozone” in stratosphere  “Bad ozone” in troposphere

8. QUESTIONS MOTIVATING SHADOZ O 3 & Measurement Strategy Begun in 1998 > Tropical Questions  SHADOZ network 1. Are ozone satellite columns accurate? √ High resolution, stratosphere and troposphere i.e. Soundings 2. Where is wave-one pattern observed in total equatorial ozone [Shiotani, 1992]? √ 3. Which chemical-meteorological interactions govern ozone variability? Burning? Lightning? Urban? STE? Long-range transport? Time scale? √

9. Ozonesonde Instrument: Preparation & Packaging with Radiosonde

10. Design of Tropical Ozone Network What causes zonal wave-one pattern observed in total equatorial ozone [Shiotani, 1992]? Full longitudinal coverage – selected 9 operational stations in 1998 (now 12) Which chemical-meteorological interactions govern tropospheric ozone variability? Time scale? Practicality (cost, personnel) => weekly soundings

11. SHADOZ PROJECT (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) Operations in southern hemisphere (1998), then add two NH Now > 2200 ozone profiles: http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz. Refer to Thompson et al, JGR, 108, 8238, doi: 10.129/ 2001JD000967, 2003http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz

12. Tropical Ozone Answers from SHADOZ Are ozone satellite columns accurate? √ Good Agreement at Nairobi

13. SHADOZ SAMOA, TOMS, DOBSON 1)TOMS comparisons valid 1998-2001 2)v 7 TOMS, v8 ozone > sonde, Dobson - left 3)TOMS overestimate at low-tropo.-O 3 sites, (eg Samoa, Fiji) - below

14. √ Wave-One in Tropospheric Ozone, Stratospheric Ozone Longitudinally Invariant – Interaction of General Circulation, Convection + O 3 from Fires, Lightning (via NO) Unique SHADOZ view shows wave present all year (Thompson et al, JGR, 108, D2, 8241 2002JD002241, 2003). Convective influence over western Pacific, subsidence over Atlantic

15. √ Week-to-week variability, Nairobi: Low ozone in free troposphere (left, blue) coincides with convection & Indian Ocean Transport (higher humidity, right, red). Wavelet, other statistics (Thompson, Chatfield) show distinct 3- 7-day periodicity from convection, advection

16. Nairobi, 1998-2001- Seasonal “Means?” Tropospheric column ozone is higher in S-O-N than M-A-M, but extremes are similar  “Meaningless means” From Thompson et al [Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 2004] - Cf Variability defined by synoptic regime [Diab et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2003; JGR, 2004].

17. Profile Classification: Two DJF patterns at Irene, So. Africa *** Search for pattern and order. Multivariate cluster analyses technique Profiles group according to magnitude and altitude of ozone Highlight need to account for temporal variability, I.e. stratification? *** Diab et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3, 713-723, 2003

18. GEOGRAPHICAL VARIABILITY From 1998-2002 data: (a) La Reunion – more stratospheric influence; African biomass burning (b)Natal – M-A-M convective influence; SON – biomass burning impact (c)Fiji – pronounced convective in- fluence, SON – imported pollution

19. Looking Ahead! – Now in Aura Era > What is Aura? Launched 15/7/04, 4 ozone sensors -- Two (OMI/TES) oriented to troposphere > Ozonesonde needs for scientific issues: Processes – Tropical*, Mid-latitude Validation – TOMS/OMI retrievals * Tropical – Re-examine SHADOZ to respond to new findings of “Paradox,” absence of NH wave-one --- TES HIRDLS OMI-- MLS--

22. NO 2 over South America and the US

23. Atlantic “Ozone Paradox” “Paradox” (left) – more DJF ozone over southern hemisphere when north tropics (west Africa) burning! Thompson et al. [2000] Mechanisms: Interhemispheric transport, subsidence of ozone over So. Atlantic (middle), lightning (right) How much of each?

24. Atlantic “Ozone Paradox” Not Seen over Africa Re-evaluate SHADOZ Design – 2004 Over African continent no DJF “Paradox” (Note! NH is at right, SH is left) [Sauvage at al., Thesis, 2004]. Paramaribo (Surinam, 5N) O 3 differs from SH O 3 [Peters et al., 2004] All SHADOZ sites, distinct 3-7-day periodicity  weekly sampling ok; 2/week better; 2/month inadequate

25. Urban fires cause 30-50% of surface 90 ppbv ozone [Thompson et al., GRL, 29, 1976, doi: 10.129/2002GL015399, 2002] Issues: Aerosol interferes with uv ozone satellite retrieval. Algorithms need profile data in regions with smoke Pollution-level surface ozone absent from SHADOZ stations because most are far from sources Need more Polluted Sites SAFARI-2000 Lusaka, Zambia (15S, 28E) (9/2000)

26. 4.Can Ozone in High Pollution be Quantified? Predicted? Test Assimilation √ TOMS satellite ozone in Regional Air Quality Model System (B Pierce, NASA- LaRC) 8 July Ron Brown Sounding & RAQMS Lower tropospheric (LT) ozone and UT/LS not correct Will IONS assimilation improve agreement?  Give better tropospheric ozone from satellite?  Predict pollution transport?

27. Sounding Strategies in AURA Profile interactively guides satellite (OMI/TES) derivation of tropospheric ozone and assimilation Simultaneously engage other EOS/A-train sensors (eg H2O, AIRS) Full range of radicals, ozone precursors, deposited species (ground-based), plus aircraft/uav data constrain Models, Assimilation Satellite SONDE

28. Synergism of Ground-based-Models-Balloon-Aircraft Observations with Modeling & Assimilation

29. Summary O 3 & Measurement Strategy Design > Tropical Questions  SHADOZ network Spatial, temporal resolution in network must match scientific question (for O 3,, scales of dominant meteorological processes) Regional-to-global scale of tropical issues define SHADOZ (~12 global sites, 1/wk) Integrated Observing Strategies Required – Sondes-aircraft-satellite- ground-based Analyses, Predictions require multiple statistical, modeling approaches, all scales!

30. Thank you for Attention! Thank You L Gallardo (U Chile-CMM) Acknowledgments:  Jacquelyn Witte for Graphics, Analysis  NASA Program Sponsors for SHADOZ  SHADOZ Team – NASA Honor Awards Given in 2004 to > 40 individuals in 20 nations!