1. Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Demographic Impact of Migration Seminar on Measuring Population Movement and Integration in a Globalized World 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians (Paris, 10-12 June 2008) Marcel Heiniger, Swiss Federal Statistical Office

2. 2 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Three Invited Papers 1. “Migrations Statistics: Conceptualization and Measurement in the European Union” by Stephan Marik-Lebeck (Austria) 2. “The Demographic Perspective of an Emigration Country” by CSO Poland 3. “Quarterly Measurement of the Effect of Foreign Migrations on the Population of Spain: The Nowcast Population Estimates” by Ignacio Duque (Spain)

3. 3 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO The Main Issue Migration affects societies in different ways: demographic impact economic impact social impact How does migration affect the size, change, structure, distribution of the population? What are the demographic consequences?

4. 4 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Diversity of International Migration Different types of migration long-term / short-term permanent / temporary / seasonal regular / irregular New forms of migration return migration circular migration transit migration

5. 5 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Migration Data – Critical Issues Definition of international migrant/migration: reference population, ‘country of origin‘ designation, minimum time limit [duration threshold] Data sources (coverage, accuracy, timeliness) A universal standardized and harmonized terminology used in the collection of international migration statistics is far from a reality.

6. 6 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO The Demographic Impact of Migration in Host Countries From 1990 to 2000, international migration accounted for 56% of the population growth in the developed world. From 1990 to 2000, immigration accounted for 89% of population growth in Europe. From 1995 to 2000, Europe’s population would have declined by 4.4 million without immigration. (Source: GCIM, 2005)

7. 7 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Classification of Countries in International Migration Statistics immigration / host / receiving countries emigration / sending countries A given country may be at the same time a country of immigration and of emigration.

8. 8 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Demographic Impact - The Key Points (1) direct / primary effects = inflow and outflow of persons indirect / secondary effects due to the specific age and sex structure of most migrants

9. 9 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Demographic Impact - The Key Points (2) direct impact of migration: population size population growth or decline population structure (age, sex) population ageing and the concept of ‚replacement migration‘

10. 10 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Demographic Impact - The Key Points (3) indirect impact of migration: fertility (number of births) mortality (infant/child mortality, specific health risks) marriage patterns (e.g. mixed marriages) family and household structure migrants (1st generation) vs. descendants of migrants (2nd/3rd generation)

11. 11 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Questions to the Authors (1) Austria: Can national (policy) needs and the desire for internationally harmonized migration statistics ever be reconciled? What is the demographic impact of using a shorter duration threshold in the definition of international migration? Should there be universal concepts when assessing the demographic impact of migration on national populations?

12. 12 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Questions to the Authors (2) Poland: How temporary is temporary emigration? Does it affect the population structure differently than permanent emigration? Have the emigration figures already lead to concrete policy developments? How can we get information on people who are not present in the country anymore?

13. 13 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Questions to the Authors (3) Spain: Why do you think that the demographic impact of migration is a strange subject for discussion? Will the distinction between nationals and non-nationals become irrelevant in the future? Is the steep increase in the number of immigrants also a result of the new method to produce population estimates?

14. 14 Session I: Demographic Impact of Migration | Discussant: Marcel Heiniger, SFSO 56th Plenary Session of the Conference of European Statisticians, Paris, 10-12 June 2008 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO Questions for General Discussion Do we need to know about the indirect demographic impacts of migration? Do we have to be able to distinguish various generations of people with an immigrant background? Do we need internationally harmonized concepts for quantifying the demographic impact of international migration? Are demographic data on migrants policy-relevant in your specific national context? Is the assessment of the demographic impact of migration of national interest only? Are the demographic aspects less relevant than the economic and social effects of migration?