1. Mike McCoy Information Center for the Environment U.C. Davis http://ice.ucdavis.edu Modeling 101 Fall - 2006

2. Essentially 5 types of models –“Delphi” Expert or Citizen Panel –Trend Model –Accessibility Forecasting –Micro-Economic Land Use Models –Rule Based Land Use Models Strengths and Weaknesses: A Very Short Course in Modeling

3. Delphi Expert/Citizen Delphi Captures Professional Planning and Real Estate Knowledge Delphi Records Community Preference Most Delphi Programs Are Graphically Rich

4. PLACE 3 S

5. Method Structured discussion Sketch planning Visual simulation Economic feasibility estimation Travel demand estimation Energy consumption estimation

6. Preferred Scenario

7. DELPHI “Knowledge Base” Results Are Panel Dependant Makes “the zoning assumption” –“If we zone it they will come”

8. Trend Forecasting Acknowledges Regional History Considers Past Trends Relates “Features” To Past And Future Growth

11. Trend Forecasting The Future Is Not Fully Shaped By The Past Constraints Have Not Been Well Represented In These Models

12. Accessibility Forecasting Measures “Attraction” Of Housing Zones –Historic Growth, Vacancy, Trends Uses Jobs-Housing Balance –Employment In-Zone, Travel Time To Other Zones Considers Past Residential Trends –Same As “Trend” Model

13. The Future Is Not Fully Shaped By The Past Accessibility Is Over-Represented Relative To Other Economic Factors Accessibility Forecasting

14. Micro-Economic Models Use “Real” Economic Chains –Production location to exchange location; to consumption location; for all goods, services, residences and labor Uses Real Market Mechanisms To Allocate Commercial and Residential Space Development Measures Improvements In Consumer and Producer Welfare

15. Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption total consumption total production total production total production buying allocation process commodity flows exchange zone exchange zone exchange zone selling allocation process 1

16. Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption total consumption total production total production total production buying allocation process commodity flows exchange zone exchange zone exchange zone selling allocation process 1 2

17. Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption total consumption total production total production total production buying allocation process commodity flows exchange zone exchange zone exchange zone selling allocation process 1 2 3

18. Micro-Economic Models Expensive And Time Consuming To Develop Shortage Of Trained Human Resources

19. Rule Based Models Use Pseudo Economic Drivers Encourage User Input/Operation Can Represent Past Trends

20. UPlan 2.0 Simple “Rule Based Model” Let’s users choose –Everything Future population (total or by special area) General Plan Maps (current or speculative) What attracts growth by land use type (roads, services…) What discourages growth (endangered species, wetlands…) Where growth absolutely can’t go (the river, the lake) Let’s users know –Where Development Goes Mapped by type, charted by amount by type –What Development Costs Transportation and Services Infrastructure Environmental Infrastructure

21. Group and Add Weighted Grid Layers 4000 404 4242 2222 0 Growth Attractions Group Combined Effect 4444 444 0000 0000 4 Urban Edge 0400 004 4000 0400 0 0300 030 0000 0000 3 AmenityMajor Arterial 81144 8712 8242 6222 7 Ramp Proximity

22. Recommendations All –Use a Delphi Model like Places or a simple model like UPlan to encourage vision creating participation. large MPOs (SCAG, MTC/ABAG, SANDAG, SACOG) –Use an integrated micro-economic model such as PECAS to test the policies and investments you will need to achieve the vision Medium-sized MPOs and RTPAs –use simple urban models, such as UPlan, along with travel models to test the policies and investments you will need to achieve the vision Share, Share, Share –Ideas, Experiences, Data

23. Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, as just as fair… Choices

24. Model Development Process Land Use Models Trip-Based ModelsTourActivity StandardEnhancedComplexAggregateSimulationAggregateSimulation Stand Alone Factored Judgement Fresno San Joaquin Boise New Hampshire San Francisco County Policy+Trends Allocation SACOG Travel Model 1996 Edmonton Conn - ected Rule-Based Allocation Merced Co. UPl an SACOG Travel Model + PLACES 2003 Equilibrium Allocation (e.g. DRAM) San Diego Puget Sound Atlanta Santiago Portland Market-Based Allocation Portland Integ - rated Aggregate Economic (Input/Output) SACOG MEPLAN2004 London SACOG PECAS 2005 Oregon Statewide 2004 SACOG PECAS 2006 SANDAG PECAS 2007 Disaggregate Economic Microsim- ulation

25. www.ice.ucdavis.edu/um mcmccoy@ucdavis.edu