1. Using the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model for the Oregon Freight Plan Analysis Prepared for the TRB SHRP2 Symposium: Innovation in Freight Demand Modeling and Data September 14, 2010 Presented by Tara Weidner Parsons Brinckerhoff

2. Presentation Highlights Describe Freight Plan analysis Overview of the Statewide Integrated Model Reporting model results Conclusions

3. Oregon Freight Plan First statewide freight plan Scope of analysis was well matched to SWIM2 model ODOT modeling staff served role as internal consultants PB modeling staff served as extension of ODOT staff while continuing model development

4. StateWide Integrated Model (SWIM2) Activity Logsums Employment by Industry Construction$ Totals Labor Flows$ Aggregate/Equilibrium Micro-simulation Next Time Period Feedback Production Totals Space Inventory Travel Time/Costs OD Trip Tables Travel Time/Costs Space Prices Occupied Space Demand Mode Choice Logsums HH Labor Commodity Flows$ (internal, import, export) ECONOMY LAND DEVELOPMENT SYNTHETIC POPULATION ALLOCATION TRANSPORT ASSIGNMENT Person Goods External SPATIAL

5. Oregon StateWide Integrated Model (SWIM2) as Forecast Tool SWIM2 result of 10-year program SWIM2 integrates the dynamic interactions of land use, the economy and transportation infrastructure SWIM2 is a peer reviewed model SWIM1 used successfully on several statewide analyses

6. Freight Plan Analysis Purpose Forecast range of likely economic conditions to gain understanding of effects on freight movement –Illustrate variation in statewide and regional activity and commodity flows –Provide information to support development of freight strategies

7. Analytical Approach Use scenarios to evaluate range of possible futures Reference: “business-as-usual” (2.0% CAGR) Optimistic: more economic growth (2.7%) Pessimistic: less economic growth (1.2%) High Transportation Costs: Pessimistic scenario with 3-fold increase in variable operating costs 3 month original schedule

8. Reporting Out Model Results Lots of output (80GB/scenario) SWIM VIZ: –Single multi-year database (3 GB/scenario) –Visualization tool Database approach great – allowed access to data without keeping the large set of files associated with run Simultaneous VIZ tool development, and freight-plan specific graphics and performance metrics

9. SWIM VIZ Tool 1) Query 2) Tables 3) Visuals

10. Commodity Tree Map

11. Significant commodity movement will flow on Oregon’s highway system

12. Stronger economy generates more commodity flow in terms of value Stronger economy generates more commodity flow in terms of tons

13. Weaker economy generates less commodity flow in terms of tons Weaker economy generates less commodity flow in terms of value

14. 14 Variation by commodity type…

15. 15 Variation by industry sector…

16. 16 Variation by region…

17. 17 Truck Tour Characteristics 17 Truck tours get shorter because of congestion, but more trucks are needed to transport freight, further contributing to congestion.

18. Conclusion SWIM2 model added value to state freight policy Integrated model allowed view of commodity flows (tons and value) and truck trip/tours by scenario Visualization database and tools key to mining volume of output and discerning complex responses

19. For more information… Oregon Freight Plan: http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/FREIGHT/FREIGHT_PLAN.shtml http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/FREIGHT/FREIGHT_PLAN.shtml Becky Knudson Oregon DOT, Planning Analysis Unit rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us Tara Weidner Parsons Brinckerhoff weidner@pbworld.com