1. By Prof.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta
Electrical Energy Crises Remedial Measures, Emphasizing the hydel power role By
Prof.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta

2. Energy the lifeline of economic development.
Pakistan is the poorest of the poor as far as energy consumption for capital is concerned.
Per capita energy consumption, is one of the indicator of Industrial development and quality of life of a country.
Pakistan has 14 Million BTU’s as compared to 92 Million BTU’s of Malaysia and 34 Million BTU’s for China.
Per Capita electrical consumption per year of Pakistan is 470kWh, & of Malaysia is 2,708 & of Singapore is 6,775 kWh

4. Electrical Power Generation Plan

7. 2005

8. Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)

9. Generation Expansion Plan 2007-2030
2007
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
Hydel
6474
7379
9071
17423
23948
IPPs
6466
14205
22045
36345
58955
95355
Genco+KESC
6431
10082
Rental
150
846
Total
19521
32512
42044
64696
93831
130231

10. Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030)
As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of MW and MW by years 2012 and by 2025, respectively.

11. Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan
2597 MW by 2015 and MW by 2025.

12. Hydropower Addition as Per Generation Expansion Plan

15. Hydropower projects under study.
Sr. No.
Project
River
Locati on
Installed Capacity (MW)
Tentative completion month of the study
Present Status
Estimated Construction Cost (US$) 1
Keyal Khwar
Patan
122
Jun 2009
Feasibility Study completed. Detailed Design and Tender Documents initiated.
160 million 2
Kohala
1100
Aug 2009
Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress.
1.7 billion 3
Dasu
4000
Mar 2011
Feasibility Study in progress.
6.5 billion 4
Lower Spat Gah
Spat Gah
610
Dec 2010
700 million 5
Chor Nullah
621 6
Bunji
Gilgit
5400
Apr 2010
6 billion 7
Phandar
Ghizar 80
Sep 2009
Appointment of Consultants for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in process.
65 million

16. TOTAL 20770 32.15 billion 8 Basho Skardu 28 Sep 2009
Appointment of Consultants for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in process.
30 million 9
Lawi
Shishi
Darosh - Chitral 70
Jun 2011
Feasibility Study completed. PC-II for Detailed Design and Tender Documents initiated.
120 million 10
Thakot
2800
Jun 2013
PC-II for Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents under preparation.
5 billion 11
Patan
Jun 2015 12
Golen Gol
Golen Gol- Mastuj
Chitral - Mastuj
106
Nov 2008
Study for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress. Tendering progress initiated.
130 million 13
Harpo
Harpo- Lungma 33
PC-II for Detailed Design and Tender Documents prepared & ready for submission to Ministry of Water & Power.
40 million 14
Yulbo
3000
Desk study & field reconnaissance initiated
6 billion
TOTAL
20770
billion

17. Power Sector Installed Capacity of Pakistan
An overview of Installed Capacity of Power Sector of the country is as follows:
WAPDA Thermal MW
Hydel MW
Nuclear MW
IPPS (Thermal) MW
Total MW
Study of the utilization of various sources of power development in the country concludes as follows:
Gas %
Oil %
Coal %
Nuclear %
Hydel %

18. Components of Hydropower System in Pakistan
Installed Hydropower Stations
Components of Hydropower System in Pakistan
Sr. No.
Name of Station
Installed capacity (MWs) 1
Tarbela 2
Ghazi Barotha 3
Mangla 4
Warsak
240.00 5
Chashma
184.00 6
Rasul
22.00 7
Malakand
19.60 8
Dargai
20.00 9
Nandipur
13.80 10
Shadiwal
13.50 11
Chichoki Malian
13.20 12
K.Garhi & Renala
5.10 13
Chitral
1.00 14
Satpara
4.86
Total

19. Name of Project (MW) Present Status
Public Sector Future Projects
Name of Project
Installed Capacity
(MW)
Present Status
Kalabagh
3600
Feasibility & Tender Documents Completed
Basha
4500
Feasibility
Completed & Detailed Design in Progress
Munda
660 “
Total
8760

20. Hydropower Projects in Private Sector
Name of Project
Capacity (MW)
Tentative Commissioning
New Bong Escape at 84
2010
Rajdhani at Punch (AJK)
132
2011
Matiltan at Swat
2012
Malakand III( ) 81
2008
Kotli
100
Gulpur (AJK)
120
Gabral – Kalam
101

21. WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING
N T D C
( 1 )
POWER WING
GENCOs
( 4 )
DISCOs
( 9 )
GENERATION
TRANSMISSION
DISTRIBUTION
Thermal Power
Stations
Grid Station/Trans. Lines
Operation & Maintenance
Area Electricity Boards

22. OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR
GENERATION PATTERN
Hydel
Oil
6489 MW
6497 MW
(33%)
(34%)
Nuclear
452 MW
(2%)
Total MW
Coal
Gas
5815 MW
(30%)
150 MW
(1%)

23. WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING
N T D C
( 1 )
WAPDA HYDEL
(1)
POWER WING
GENCOs
( 4 )
DISCOs
( 9 )
GENERATION
TRANSMISSION
DISTRIBUTION
Thermal Power
Stations
Grid Station/Trans. Lines
Operation & Maintenance
Distribution Companies

24. 1. Technology and Information Barriers. 2. Policy Barriers.
There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power
1. Technology and Information Barriers.
2. Policy Barriers.
3. Regulatory Barriers.
4. Institutional Barriers.
5. Financial Barriers.
6. Interconnection Barriers.
7. Tariff.
8. Procedural impediments.
9. Risks
a. Hydrological Risks
b. Geological Risks.
c. Environment Risks.
d. Miscellaneous.

25. Technology and information Barriers.
We lack knowledge & information about the technology of hydel power.
Need for education of hydel power technology not only for the students & engineers but also for general public
Strategy to achieve five E’s
E----- Education
E----- Energy
E----- Employment
E----- Equity
E----- Enterprise
UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes for post graduate students about Hydel Power to implement the most important “Es” of education in energy & for employment on equity basics for enterprises.

26. and Micro Hydel Plants
Oil, Gas and Coal
Renewable Energy resources
Suitable human resource development to fulfill the energy growth requirements

27. PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL
(SUMMARY)
Sr.
No.
River/ Tributary
Power
(MW) 1.
Indus River
35760 2.
Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP
5558
Sub Total (1+2)
41318 3.
Jhelum River
3143 4,
Kunhar River
1250 5.
Neelum River & its Tributaries
2459 6.
Poonch River
397
Sub Total ( )
7249 7.
Swat River & its Tributaries
2388 8.
Chitral River & its Tributaries
2282
Sub Total (7+8)
4670 9.
Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries
1290
TOTAL
54527

28. PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL
41816 MW
7249 MW
4528 MW
1290 MW
Swat & Chitral River
Jhelum River Basin
Small Hydel
Indus River Basin

30. DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECT
(PROFILE OF PROJECT UNDER EXECUTION)
Project Location Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam,
Height of Dam 272 m
Length of Dam 990 m
Gross Storage 8.1 Million-acre feet (MAF)
Live Storage 6.4MAF
Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW
Total Number of Units 12, each of 375 MW
Power Houses 2 (2,250 MW each)
Average Generation 18,000 Gwh/ annum
Construction Period
Present Status
Feasibility Completed in 2007.
Construction to start by mid 2009.

31. (Multi Purpose but Made Controversial)
KALABAGH DAM PROJECT
(Multi Purpose but Made Controversial)
NEED FOR KALABAGH DAM FOR IRRIGATION & ELECTRICTY
35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated by canals and tube wells.
Canal with drawl increased from 67 to 105 MAF between the years 1947 and
Storage depleted by 5MAF by 2006.
Situation of water shortage, threat of famine
Pakistan will have reached the stage of “acute water shortage”, where people fight for every drop of water.

32. NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT
National food needs would be jeopardized as of population growth.
28% loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoirs due to sedimentation would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies.
For implementation of Water Apportionment Accord 1991, new storages are essential. In its absence it would give rise in bitter inter-provincial disputes,
The Annual energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20 million barrels of oil otherwise needed to produce thermal power.

33. Reservoir
Live storage MAF
Retention level ft SPD*
Minimum reservoir level 825 ft SPD*
Area at retention level 164 sq mile
Main Dam
Crest elevation ft SPD*
Crest width ft
Maximum height ft
Length ,375 ft
Installed Capacity MW
Estimated Cost about US$6.2 Billion

34. APPREHENSION OF NWFP
1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera
®Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles downstream of Nowshera.
2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be adversely affected creating water logging and salinity.
® Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are 970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause water logging or salinity

35. Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly compensated
4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely affected.
®The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in Kabul River and Kalapani Khwar. These drains would keep on functioning without any obstruction.
5.Fertile cultivable land would be submerged.
®Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only 35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres in NWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP).
6.Population Dislocation
® total population to be relocated is of which shall be from Punjab and from NWFP.
Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly compensated

36. APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH
No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir
® Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea.
® Kalabagh reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will gradually be released to the provinces.
® Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage.

37. 2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert.
® Dams don’t consume water! These only store water during flood season and make it available on crop demand basis
® It estimated that after Kalabagh, the canal withdrawals for Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF.
3.Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir
®The project design does not include any provision for diverting water from reservoir.
® A telemetric system employing modern electronic technology has recently been installed at each barrage and other flow control points to monitor discharge in various canals commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus Water River System Authority (IRSA).

38. 4.Cultivation in “Sailaba” areas would be effected
® Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming after construction of Kalabagh Dam, without detriment to the present agricultural practices, while large floods would be effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The local farmer can look forward to having two crops annually instead of the present one crop.
5.Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate.
® Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further by Kalabagh Dam.

39. BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER DEVELOPMENT
Hydel Potential of 54,000MW to be harnessed to avoid load shedding
To reduce dependency on oil import
Hydel power a stimulator for the socio-economic growth
Highly reliable, cheap operation and maintenance charges are very low
Able to respond to rapidly changing loads without loss of efficiency
The plants have a long life so highly economical
No nuisance of smoke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, friendly
Multipurpose to give additional advantages of irrigation
Optimal Utilization of Indus River for development of Hydropower Projects in cascade system

40. Technology and Information Barriers & Risks of Hydrology Geology etc
Strategy for five E’s, Education, Energy, Employment, Equity, Enterprise
Attractive Policy & incentives required
Upfront & Feed-in Tariff necessary
Hydrological studies on all streams, to have central data bank of hydrology
Action Plan with targets for faithful implementation

41. Need to simplify and standardized Environment Assessment
Institute for dissemination of technology, training and R&D recommended
Communication Infrastructure development up to the site is required
New approaches to financing, environmental and social issues, barriers and their mitigations, to enhance public acceptance, and to build consensus
Need for technology transfer and & local technology development
Targeted and compatible human resource development in line with energy generation profile

42. Challenges in Hydropower Projects
More Capital intensive compared to thermal
Longer gestation and construction Period
More Construction Risks (inflation, cost overruns, delays, geological surprises, floods, extreme weather, socio-political)
Higher Tariff in the initial years
No “off-the-shelf” or standard machines similar to thermal plants
Very site specific. Usually a number of options for developing each site
High percentage of civil works (70-75%) - difficult to estimate end costs
Operational Risks (hydrological risk, multiple uses, future developments/diversions)
Environmental & resettlement issues
Institutional set up at provincial level

43. Challenges in Hydropower Projects
Generally located in remote area, lack of basic infrastructure (access roads, tunnels, electricity, telephone, colony, potable water, manpower)
Dedicated and expensive delivery infrastructure required
Extra thermal capacity for backup in low water season
Hydel Generation varies with availability of water & head
Limited International experience in Private Hydropower Projects
Specific Tariff & Security Documents issues
Project Agreements (IA, PPA) are different and complex
Clearances from the Provinces, Water Use Agreement etc.