1. Global Markets Analysis for 2010 Panos Dantis

2. Major Markets 1. Bonds 2. Commodities 3. FX 4. Stocks

3. 1.Bonds The majority of analysts expect that 2010 will be a bad year for US Treasuries BUT with a 10% unemployment, we are still almost twice the level consistent with non – inflationary growth.

4. Bonds 2 Unemployment will remain high until the economy starts creating 150,000 jobs per month It needs 6 months for that. Even then, FED will bide its time Remember 1992 : it raised rates after 14 months the peak of unemployment (7.8%) and June 2003(6.3%)

5. Bonds 3 Also deflation still remains a possibility given the amount of slack in labor and product markets. The withdrawal of unconventional policy support will no have a negative impact on government bonds that is widely SO US TREASURIES ARE NOT A BUBBLE and expect the 10 year yield to DROP to 2.3%

6. 2.Commodities The current pick up in inflation in the major economies is mainly due to base effects of energy prices. These base effects will soon fade out if oil prices remain around 70 – 75$ pb. But since we expect $ to recover and global demand to disappoints, we think oil will drop back to around $50pb.

7. Commodities – oil We see 3 downside risks: Financial factors:speculative pressures drove oil to 147$ pb. In July 2008. If oil rises and fears of inflation and asset bubbles fade, oil prices should drop back in 2010. Fundamental demand of oil is weak.

8. Global Growth and oil We expect that growth in key economies – US and China – to be firm until the middle of 2010. But then the stimulus boost will end and the demand for oil should slow again. When economies recover the supply response to increased demand –if any - will recover too.

9. Oil price and USD/EURO rate

10. Brent Futures

11. Crude oil futures chart: 1983 - 2009

12. What GS says….

13. Commodities - Gold Gold is a seasonal asset. It has increased 11,6% on average from September to February since the beginning of its Bull market in 2000. All time classic asset Should be included to every portfolio

14. Gold – Long run facts Population has increased and more and more people would like to have gold. Gold fundamentals remain very bullish Global mined supply declines Central banks are looking at Gold after the crisis and have reduced gold sales.

15. Gold - history When gold hit 850& :\ The average US household income <18K New houses average price = 76k New cars average = <6k So, 850 in 1980’s is not 850 today So 850 translates into 2,358 $ today

16. Gold – Fed policy But with the excessive monetary growth of FED, Money of zero maturity has increased 11,5 times since 1980.!! So real Gold price highs is well above 2,358, close to 4,800$ in today's’ dollar terms

17. Gold - 2010 However, for the next year there are a few problems: China and South Korea central banks are thinking of selling part of their gold The ratio of GOLD/OIL = 15.4 The ratio Dow Jones / Gold = 9.2 on 10 average.

18. GOLD - 2010 But BUY GOLD as a HEDGE against: Runaway inflation USD collapse Any bubble market collapse A new bear or panic stock market.

19. Gold Chart : 1833 - 1999

20. Gold chart: 1975 -2009

21. Commodities – Silver 1792 - 1999

22. Silver 1985 - 2009

23. Platinum: 1992 - 2009

25. 3.Forex – EURO / USD We often think that Fed’s monetary expansion will lead to a USD collapse. The reality is more complicated The increased in USD supply is offset by an increase in demand The additional liquidity has been held within the banking system. Same happened in Japan between 2001 - 06

26. Forex : EURO/USD Foreign demand for USD and dollar assets will increase from countries where policy is less supportive like the euro –zone. Fed’s policies have reduced a debt – deflation spiral, which is also positive for the currencies involved So we expect EURO/USD = 1.30

28. What GS says…

29. GS:”Eur/USD very seldom moves above or below 2SD from fair value”

30. FX : USD/JPY The % decline from the june high is very similar of that of the August 98 peak. At present levels there is good support Monthly oscillators are attempting to diverge positively The downside risk is heavily increasing.

31. GS says: “the real key remains US short end yields”

32. 4. Stock markets US markets European Markets Asian ASE

33. A. US Markets –major Indexes Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq

34. Dow Jones 10 years weekly

35. Dow Jones daily

36. Dow Jones Daily – zoom in

37. Nasdaq 10 years weekly

38. Nasdaq daily

39. S&P 500 weekly – 10 years

40. B. Europe – DAX weekly 10 years

41. Dax Daily

42. FTSE 20 daily

43. CAC40 - daily

44. C. Asia – Nikkei daily

45. Asia – Hang Seng daily

46. SSEC ( China) weekly 10 years

47. D. The Greek Stock Market Currently Is depending on The Hellenic government fiscal policy The effectiveness of the Hellenic government The support of foreign investors The support of EU officials The US stock markets

48. and mainly on The bond market situation

49. We should not forget that While “ Emerging markets have been viewed in the past as a source of systematic risk, they are now viewed as a source of stability and indeed a crucial driver of the global recovery” according to Capital Economics International Forum That’s why our esoteric economic problem is taken so seriously globally.

50. Latin America Short term external Debt

51. Hellas vs California

52. According to FT: “Why is Greece such a big problem for Eurozone since..the far -worse California is not raising similar concerns about the US or USD?” Greek economy is only 3% of eurozone California economy is 13,5% of US GDP

53. The Paradox The US economy Allows fiscal transfers between states to help the…weakest! The eurozone ?

54. Actually… Eurozone is only 11 years old, a child.. Greece is not a big problem to eurozone But EU officials over – reacted and confused markets Financial markets are biased against euro and will grab any chance to talk about the prospect of EMU breaking up Eurozone politicians have much greater freedom to act because there is no single government.

55. ADEX The OPEN INTEREST of FTASE20 Futures is crucial.. Generally speaking above 24 – 25,000 futures and certainly close to 30,000 futures means that selling pressure will increase in the short term at the spot market.

56. FTASE 20 weekly -10 years

57. FTASE 20 daily

58. What about VIX ? VIX is the benchmark index for US stock options VIX = Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index Measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P500

59. VIX All time high : 80,86 in November 2008, 2 months after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Has now dropped 72% for its historic high Is now 9% higher from its 15 - month low on Nov 24 th, 2009 The average price of VIX is 20,29 during the last 20 years.

60. VIX December 2010 puts @55 48,577 volume, of which 76% traded at ask price. So buyers initiated the majority of transactions… PUT 55 open Interest = 120,000 Why 55 strike? Is about half the price of SPY = 111, the ETF of S&P500.

61. One year implied volatility On the S&P500 is 24,80, that is 5,5 points higher than 30-day contracts, while the gap widened to 6,84 on November the 24 th which as the HIGHEST in the LAST % YEARS. The last time the gap approached current levels was in August 2008 = JUST BEFORE LEHMAN’S BANKRUPTCY

62. Forecasting VIX Many economists and derivatives traders expect a rise in VIX “ it will be a year of heightened volatility…north of 30 …close to 40..because inventors underestimate risks of the Global economy” Actually the cost of hedging is currently very low

63. Forecasting Most of the times VIX dropped to 20 - 22 it signalled an uptrend wave. Also S&P has advanced 63% since March Profit Growth are projected to rise 25% in 2010. Average P/E of S&P500 : 13,9% So: the odds are increased that S&P will fall

64. IF S&P 500 falls Under 1070 then a move towards Simple Moving Average 200 is possible (960) Global indexes will turn down to their SMO200. In that case GD will not be able to move above 2401.

65. S&P500 warning signals CBOE put/call ratio < 80 for a couple of weeks ( today @0.90) Mini S&P futures > 3,5 m. for a couple of weeks or > 5 m. for a couple of days VIX <20 for a couple of weeks (today@21.59) Remember : big call volume trades at tops while big put volume trades at bottoms

67. VIX daily

68. VIX weekly

69. S&P 500 Weekly zoom in

70. S&P 500 daily

71. Is there a correlation? GS supports “that an extended topping process makes sense” An up trend in the USD means that either yields break higher(2-year yields > 1.10 ) or S&P 500 < 1029.

72. GS says : S&P 500 might topping..

73. IF S&P 500 turns down, then Under 1070 then a move towards Simple Moving Average 200 is possible (960) Global indexes will turn down to their SMO200. In that case GD will not be able to move above 2401.

74. GD weekly –10 years

75. GD - daily

76. GD – Hourly

77. ETE - daily