1. OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE
PAKISTAN: FAILURE OF POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS by
Saifur Rahman Sherani

2. PAKISTAN PROFILE Area 796,000 Sq. km Population 164 million
Population Average Annual Growth Rate 1.7%
GNI US$ 144 Billion
GNI per Capita US$ 770
Domestic Debt Rs. 1,787 Billion (US$ 28 billion)
External Debt US$ 45 billion

3. POVERTY PROFILE
Poverty Line 2,350 calories per adult equivalent (Rs. 944 in 2006 prices)
Population Below Poverty Line: %
Regional variations:
NWFP (rural) and FATA 44%
Balochistan %
Punjab (rural) 32%
Below $ 1 a day 17%
Below S 2 a day 74%

4. OFFICIAL POVERTY ESTIMATES

5. POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY 2003
Accelerating economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Improving governance.
Investing in human capital.
Targeting the poor and the vulnerable.

6. SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007 Adult Literacy Rate 50%
Combined Gross Enrolment ratio 40%
Net Primary enrolment ratio 68%
Life Expectancy years
Newborn with Low birth weight 37%
Children Underweight 30%
Infant Mortality 77
Under 5 Mortality 99
Maternal Mortality per 100,

7. Budgetary Expenditure as % of GDP 2007
Education %
Health %
Water supply and Sanitation 0.19%
Rural Development %
Food Subsidies %
Food Support Programme 0.04%
Population Planning %

8. Social Assistance (Zakat) Disbursed

9. INCREASING POVERTY Food Crisis Energy Crisis – 4,000 MW power shortage
Cottage Industry Shutdown
Textile units: 70% closed
Increasing Unemployment
Inflation 23%
Food Prices Increased 200%

10. Government Management
Shortage of wheat - four fold increase in prices
(2007 Wheat production 24 million tonnes)
Exported 1.5 million tonnes – $208 /tonne
Imported 2.5 million tonnes - $400 / tonne
Shortage of Power and industrial shut down
Load Shedding
Shortage of gas and increasing prices of fuel

11. Rush for Wheat Flour

12. POLITICAL TURMOIL AND INSTABILITY
Military Rule October 1999 to 2008
Popular Leadership Exiled and imprisoned
Emergency PLUS 2007
End of Supreme Court March 2007
Superior Judiciary in Chains
Army Operation in Balochistan 2005 to 2008
Army Operation in Islamabad 2007
Wave of Suicide Bombings
Political Murders – [Former Prime Minister, Governor, Chief Minister]

13. Marriot Hotel Islamabad

14. War on Terror US Attacks in FATA 2003 – to date
Military Operation in NWFP 2007
Military Operation in FATA 2004 to date
Internal Displacement About 2 million people
[Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre – No estimates]

15. RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE
Elections February 2008
Resignation of Military Ruler August 2008
Constitutional Amendments not Reversed
New Political Government - 55 federal ministers – 20 more to be appointed
Foreign Exchange Reserves Depleted
Financial Crisis
IMF loan obtained

16. FROM DISCONTENT TO DESPAIR
Poverty and Destitution Increasing
Ever increasing Food Prices
Increasing Unemployment
Social Assistance as Political Patronage through elected representatives
Federal cabinet of 55 ministers
Import of 250 bullet proof vehicles

17. Poor Sell Kidney for Survival

18. PRIVATE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
EDHI Langar (soup-kitchen) in all major cities
Imran Khan 50% Subsidy on baked Bread
Private Charities – Food distribution
Zakat

19. QUEUE FOR FREE FOOD

20. Government Initiatives Planned in April 2008 yet to be Implemented
Federal Programme:
Benezir Income Support Programme Federal Government - Rs.34 billion
Rs. 1,000 per month to 2.83 million poor
Provincial Government:
Punjab Government Food Stamp Rs billion for 1.8 million Poor

21. Pakistan’s Public Expenditure on Social Assistance and War on Terror

22. DISASTERS
Drought
Floods in Balochistan and NWFP 2005 and 2007
Earthquake in Northern Pakistan ,000 killed
Earthquake in Balochistan 2008
Suicide Bomb Attacks 116

23. Public Policy Issues
Respect and Acceptance of Constitutional Rights of Individuals by the State
Restoration of Independent Judiciary
Bring Transparency and End Corruption
Pro-poor Public Policy
Strengthening of Planning
Preparation of PRSP - 2

24. THANK YOU