1. World Energy Perspectives and Consequences for Europe
Claude Mandil
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
FIIA EU-Presidency Lecture Series
Helsinki, 3 May 2006

2. Business-as-usual Scenario
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Mtoe
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
power
Other renewables
Hydro
In the Reference Scenario, based on current trends, global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030

3. Sustainable for the World nor Europe!
This is Not
Sustainable for the World nor Europe!

4. World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

5. EU CO2 Emissions in the “Business-as-usual” Scenario
1990 = Mt
EU emissions will be 9% and 20% above 1990 levels by 2010 and 2030 respectively

6. Share of OPEC and CIS in Global Oil and Natural Gas Supply

7. Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be
1.4 billion people without electricity

8. But the future is not
predetermined…

9. Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted – would cut CO2 emissions by 16% in 2030

10. Energy efficiency offers
Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play And Is Available In The Short Term
Energy efficiency offers
substantial energy and greenhouse gas savings at low or negative cost
energy security and reliability benefits
enhanced business competitiveness and social welfare
Compact Fluorescent Lamps
High performance buildings
LED traffic lights
Least life-cycle cost appliances A B C D E F G
Efficient information and communication technologies
Reducing standby power consumption
Super windows & daylighting
Labelling and certification

11. Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO2 per Year
Coal
Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..
CO2 Sequestration
Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants
Wind
Install 200 x current US wind generation
Solar PV
Install 1300 x current US solar generation
Nuclear
Build GW power plants
Efficient Lighting
Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)
Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004

12. -- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”
“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our
shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing
energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction
with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“
-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”

13. The IEA’s Contribution to the Gleneagles Plan of Action (Examples)
Concrete Measures to Raise Energy Efficiency:
Limit Standby Power Use to 1-Watt
A Fuel-Efficient Tire Program
Efficiency standards for television “set-top” boxes
More Efficient Lighting
Energy Technology Perspectives
A new publication providing scenario analysis of the potential of energy technologies to 2050
How much can different technologies deliver?
By when can they deliver?
What barriers need to be overcome?
This (and other) work will be considered by G8 Leaders in the lead up to the St. Petersburg Summit

14. The EU Green Paper
“A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy”
Identifies six key areas where action is necessary:
Competitiveness and the internal energy market
Diversification of the energy mix
Solidarity
Sustainable development
Innovation and technology
External policy
The Spring European Council and the European Parliament are invited to react to the Paper
The Commission will then table concrete proposals for action
Energy security and Energy efficiency
Adequate and timely investment
Developing a truly internal market

15. The EU Green Paper The Proposals could be improved by:
Norms and standards: Taking a stronger stance in terms of the use of norms and standards to obtain end-use energy efficiency improvements
Renewables: Paying more attention to the costs of setting overly ambitious renewables targets and putting more focus on improving their cost-competitiveness through R&D
A European regulator: Giving real consideration to the bold proposal of establishing a new regulator for cross-border investment and trade issues

16. What a wonderful challenge for the Finnish Presidency!