1. Polishing the Plume A New Visualization of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Developed to Advance Climate Prediction Research and Communication Jennifer M. Adams Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies George Mason University

2. Google Image Search Results for “ENSO Plume”

3. The Whisk Brooms

4. Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, 2013 “Developing a More Reliable and Usable ENSO Prediction Plume” by Tony Barnston, Mike Tippett, Huug van den Dool, and David Unger

5. An Early Failure

6. A Better Failure

7. The Wedding Cake

8. The Current Favorite

9. What Makes This Plume Shine? Histograms!  Left-aligned for easy interpretation  Colorized for quick readability  Thin underline shows full range of values Less ink, more information Clear identification of individual models Individual and multi-model ensemble means The grey area between obs and forecasts

10. Histograms on TV

11. How To Draw Histograms With GrADS Sorting data and drawing histograms have not been implemented (yet). All the coding is done in the scripting language:  Define the index in a dimension environment with E and T varying  Parse results from ‘set gxout print’ output and populate a script variable  Loop over data values, fill histogram bins, collect statistics  Set up the X-Y space in the graphic with an invisible time series plot  Use ‘q gr2xy’ and ‘draw recf’ to draw the histogram bars  Scaling: Maximum mode value spans 90% of width between time steps, so that no histogram overlaps the base of the subsequent histogram

12. The Plume for July 2015 (Click HERE to see Most Recent)HERE

13. Individual Model Plumes Initialized July 2015

14. Another Look at Individual Model Plumes (Click HERE to see in a browser)HERE

15. Plume Evolution Click to See Animation

16. Other Applications for the Plume Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall (EIMR) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Point forecasts of daily maximum temperature Atmospheric teleconnection indices

17. Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall Index (Precipitation Averaged over 70°E–110°E, 10°N–30°N, in mm/day)

18. Indian Ocean Dipole Index (Difference between area-averaged SST anomalies in the western and eastern Indian Ocean)

19. Daily Min/Max Temperatures (Click HERE to See Latest)HERE

20. Daily Max Temperature Forecast Plume (Click HERE to See Latest)HERE 00z run 12z run

21. Next Target: The Cone of Uncertainty

22. Cones on TV

23. The HurriCone

24. Adopt the New Plume! The embedded histograms  Declutter the plume  Add useful information  Improve readability Elegant distillation of ensemble information Useful for many weather and climate indicators