1. The Evolution of Regional Seismicity Between Large Earthquakes David D. Bowman California State University, Fullerton Geoffrey C. P. King Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris Charles G. Sammis University of Southern California

2. All California Earthquakes M≥6.5 1950-1995

3. Slipping Fault Seismic Slip Creep at Depth Future Earthquake Calculate from motion on all adjacent faults plus creep at depth Stress Change From Loading a Locked Patch on a Simple Fault

4. Future Earthquake Creep at Depth = Negative Slip Where are pre-earthquake stresses?

5. Accelerating Seismicity in Stress Accumulation Regions

6. Earthquake Static stress (Coulomb) changes during the earthquake cycle

7. Stress Field From Previous History of EQs Stress Field From Loading Current Stress Field =+

8. Stress distant from the fault must approach, but not exceed, the failure stress Stress must be low along the strike of the fault (or rupture would continue) Coulomb field + background field can not exceed the failure stress (except locally) Stress distant from the fault must approach, but not exceed, the failure stress Stress must be low along the strike of the fault (or rupture would continue) Coulomb field immediately before the event Coulomb field immediately after the event - Positive Coulomb stresses must have a corresponding negative value in the background field Coulomb field + background field can not exceed the failure stress (except locally) Stress distant from the fault must approach, but not exceed, the failure stress Stress must be low along the strike of the fault (or rupture would continue) Background stress field Stress must be low along the strike of the fault (or rupture would continue) Characteristics of the Background Stress Field (for a simple model)

9. The start of the earthquake cycle The end of the Earthquake cycle Stress Change Stress Level Relative to the Failure Stress Tectonic Memory Stress Earthquake 25 0 -25 bars 0 -50 bars failure stress Stress Change vs. Stress Through the Earthquake Cycle

10. An earthquake occurs when stress rises above the failure level Rough Stress field - Eqs move in AB Fault Stress Failure Stress AB Fault Stress

11. Magnitude of the event depends on the size of the stress concentration This allows the calculation of the Frequency-Magnitude relation Failure Stress Creating a Synthetic Catalog

12. Immediately after the earthquake 25% of the cycle 50% of the cycle 75% of the cycle Immediately before the earthquake failure stress -500 bars Stress and Seismicity Through the Seismic Cycle

13. AftershocksStress shadows Start of the Earthquake Cycle Approaching the Earthquake Immediately before the Earthquake Immediately after the Earthquake 75% of the Earthquake The end of the Earthquake cycle Earthquake Seismicity in the Earthquake Cycle

14. Accelerating Moment Release over a broad spatial region before large EQs a-value increase before a large event and decreases after the event Evolution of the frequency-magnitude statistics (Gutenberg-Richter relation) Stationary (time-independent) b-value Off-fault aftershocks occur in regions of elevated static stress change due to the earthquake Main fault is seismically quiet for most of the seismic cycle “Mogi doughnuts” Implications of Regional Stress Accumulation Model Region size scales with size of the “predicted” earthquake

15. California Seismicity 1912-2001 M>3.5

16. Earthquake Late in the Earthquake cycle Immediately before the earthquake Immediately after the earthquake Build-up to the Earthquake

17. San Fernando EarthquakeModel Cumulative Benioff Strain Time Which cumulative moment release curve is for a REAL seismicity sequence?

18. Accelerating Seismicity AMR Model vs. Observed

19. Earthquake Late in the Earthquake cycle Immediately before the earthquake Immediately after the earthquake Build-up to the Earthquake

20. Evolution of Gutenberg-Richter Scaling Before the 1987 Superstition Hills Earthquake

21. Two large nearby events show accelerating moment release The regions overlap, approximating the evolution of the seismicity over 2.5 cycles Seismicity in the Pacific Northwest

22. Pacific Northwest Seismicity Pacific Northwest Seismicity Statistics

23. Seismicity in the model & Pacific Northwest

24. Cumulative Benioff Strain Benioff Strain in the model & PNW

25. Evolution of the frequency-magnitude statistics

26. Frequency-magnitude stats in model & PNW

27. Better calculation of the “noise” functions - incorporate stress transfer? More complex fault geometries - simulate real fault networks Additional Testing on real data - Test on earthquakes from other regions (Greece, Turkey, China, etc) - False alarm rate? Relationship to Time-Dependent Hazard Analysis Looking Forward: Pre/re-prints available at: http://geology.fullerton.edu/faculty/dbowman