1. Growth, Poverty and Agriculture in Africa: Linkages and Policy Joachim von Braun Director General International Food Policy Research Institute Accra, Nov. 2007

2. Influence on policies Impact on poor people IFPRI’s Strategic Framework Research Capacity strengthening Policy communication Partners, stakeholders, donors, IFPRI Board and Staff Policymakers, media, opinion leaders, and IFPRI

3. ECOWAS CORAF COMESA ASARECA IFPRI Offices SAKSS Nodes IFPRI in Africa NEPAD AU

4. Africa on the move: Overview 1.Growth for poverty reduction 2.Africa’s new growth and development initiatives (NEPAD and CAADP) 3.Supporting implementation of Africa’s growth agenda

5. AFRICA IS GROWING AGAIN

6. GROWTH IS SPREADING

7. Agriculture GROWTH IS SPREADING

8. Index of Ag. Export Value (2000 =100) TRADE PERFORMANCE IS PICKING UP Index of Ag. Export Volume (2000 =100)

9. More and more countries are witnessing changes towards improved ‘Government Effectiveness’ Source: 2006 Worldwide Governance Indicators, The World Bank, 2007

10. Food retailers top 10:$777bln Wal-Mart Carrefour Royal Ahold Metro AG Tesco C o n s u m e r s $4,000 billion The world food system globalizes Food processors and traders top 10: $363 bln Nestle Cargill Unilever ADM Kraft Foods Agricultural input industry top 10: $37 bln Syngenta Bayer BASF Monsanto DuPont Farms Agricultural value added: $1,315 bln 450 million >100 ha: 0.5% < 2 ha: 85% Source: von Braun, 2005

11. Prices: Agricultural and energy prices increasingly correlate Source: IMF 2007;OECD 2005; World Bank 2007 Source: IMF 2007; OECD 2005; World Bank 2007 …and price variations are up

12. Climate change & energy threats By 2020, 75-250 million people expected to be exposed to drought (mainly in Africa)By 2020, 75-250 million people expected to be exposed to drought (mainly in Africa) -Adverse effect on livelihoods & food security -Exacerbate malnutrition & water-related problems -By 2020, yields could be reduced by up to 50% (rain-fed agriculture) Energy: biofuels - food / biomass competition Higher food prices (scenarios: 30 to 80% + prices) Instabilities increase (new risks for Africa’s poor)

13. Looking beneath the dollar-a-day line Subjacent poor ($0.75 and <$1): 485 mln in 2004 Ultra poor (<$0.50): 162 mln in 2004 Medial poor ($0.50 and <$0.75): 323 mln in 2004 Source: Ahmed et al. IFPRI, 2007

14. The share of the poorest in SSA is growing Source: Ahmed et al. 2007 Change in the share of poor living below.50$/day 1990-2004

15. MDG progress (GHI), growth & governance Source: Wiesmann 2007. L ow gov. effectiveness is assigned to countries in the lowest quartile of Worldwide Governance Indicators.

16. What explains the high poverty and hunger incidences in Africa? 1.Low agricultural productivity and output growth 2.Poor access to infrastructure, production inputs and rural services (e.g. health and education) 3.Loss of competitiveness in domestic, regional and world markets 4.Years of neglect of food staples and livestock sectors 5.Inadequate public and private sector investments, especially in rural areas 6.Weak enabling environment: governance, institutions, standards and regulations 7.Low capacity to deal with vulnerabilities to political instability and natural shocks (droughts, disease and pests, health, such as HIV/AIDS and Malaria)

17. The Strategic Square Innovation & Capacity ECONOMIC GROWTH; Agriculture CONFLICT & Governance Services & infrastructure

18.  AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1  TARGET GOAL OF 6% SECTOR GROWTH RATE  INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE)  FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT  Land and water management  Agribusiness and Infrastructure  Hunger and social safety nets  Science and Technology  POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW, ACCOUNTABILITY  EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES  INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

19. Supporting implementation of Africa’s growth agenda Analytical Agenda and M&E of CAADPAnalytical Agenda and M&E of CAADP Piloting Country Strategy SupportPiloting Country Strategy Support Establishment of ReSAKSSEstablishment of ReSAKSS Providing Roundtable Support to Implement CADDP at the National LevelProviding Roundtable Support to Implement CADDP at the National Level

20. Analytical Agenda and M&E for CAADP Implementation Developing Analytical Agenda to Support Pillar 1: Land and water managementPillar 1: Land and water management Pillar 2:Regional integration and trade, market access, agribusiness, and rural infrastructurePillar 2:Regional integration and trade, market access, agribusiness, and rural infrastructure Pillar 3: Food securityPillar 3: Food security Pillar 4: Agricultural research and technologyPillar 4: Agricultural research and technology

21. PROGRESS TOWARDS CAADP GROWTH TARGET PROGRESS TOWARDS CAADP GROWTH TARGET

22. Progress against CAADP 10% goal (2004) Source: Fan et al., IFPRI (forthcoming)

23. Analysis Support 1. How agricultural growth vs. non agricultural growth contributes to national development goals1. How agricultural growth vs. non agricultural growth contributes to national development goals 2. How much investment is needed to support needed agricultural growth2. How much investment is needed to support needed agricultural growth 3. How to allocate agricultural investment3. How to allocate agricultural investment 4. What are other complementary polices are needed to help the poor who will not benefit from agricultural growth4. What are other complementary polices are needed to help the poor who will not benefit from agricultural growth 5. How to reform the governance structure5. How to reform the governance structure

24. Ghana Source: IFPRI work in Progress

25. GHI Trends in Africa 1981 - 2003

26. African economic growth accelerates Agriculture is essential element of growth Institutional reforms for markets & infrastructure Strategic support at National and regional level Facilitating learning across countries Conclusions: New partnering with Africa