1. 11 Green Growth: A Canadian Perspective David McLaughlin President and CEO, NRTEE Canada and the OECD: 50 Years of Converging Interests

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3. 3 Low-Carbon Economy Stream How does Canada’s low-carbon performance compare to others? What climate policy options are best for Canada-U.S. harmonization? What does a low-carbon growth plan for Canada look like? Released 2010 Released 2011 To be released 2012

4. 4 Characterizing the opportunity in terms of growth, resilience and competitive advantage Identifying and assessing barriers and challenges Developing the recommended policy pathway Integrating into existing approaches and future needs Looking @ Green Growth

5. 5 “The Green Race is On” And its taking on different forms Policy … If you want to be a leader in the world economy and do well in the ‘Green Race’ you need to transform your domestic market and build capabilities, demand and scale...We need new types of partnerships between business, government and civil society. (Bjorn Stigson, WBCSD, 2011)Innovation Ministers noted that innovation, supported by a strong intellectual property rights system, is a key to countries’ abilities to achieve economic growth, create green jobs, and protect the environment. (OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, 2011)Investment The British government outlined plans for the world's first state-backed green investment bank…– a key plank of its pledge to transition the country into a low-carbon economy. (Huffington Post, 2011)

6. 6 Where are we now?

7. 77 NRTEE G8 Low-carbon Performance Index

8. 88 Canadian Emissions to 2020 (Mt CO2e) Source: Environment Canada Projection, 2011

9. 9 Low-carbon Resilience Total GHG Emissions –with existing government measures Emission Target for 2020= 607 Mt Emissions Intensity Target for 2020 = 0.425 From 1990-2008, emissions intensity decreased by 23%, of which 15% occurred between 2000-2008. From 2008 to 2020, an emissions intensity decrease of 14% is forecasted. Source: NRTEE 2008

10. Global Low-carbon Goods and Service Market 10 Blue Map BAU

11. 11 Canadian Low-carbon Opportunity to 2050 Source: Delphi Group, 2011- preliminary modelling for the NRTEE 0.9% of global LCGS investment 0.5% of global LCGS investment

12. 12 GHG Emissions Sources vs. Low-Carbon Investments Source: Conference Board, 2011- preliminary research for the NRTEE

13. 13 Canada’s Trade in Low-Carbon Goods in 2010 ($million) Source: Conference Board, 2011- preliminary research for the NRTEE -$4,000-$2,000$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000 Climate Friendly Exports Climate Friendly Net Imports Climate Friendly Trade Balance USOther Top 10Rest of World

14. 14 Illustrative Example – Wind Sector Total investment in Canada: $1.4B annually between 2005 and 2010 Annual exports ~$290M Annual trade imbalance in the range of $400M Source: Analysis undertaken for NRTEE by Delphi Group and EnvrioEconomics 14

15. 15 What is the path forward?

16. 16 This is about Canada’s transition to a low-carbon economy & a policy pathway to help get us there.

17. 17 NRTEE’s Approach Targeted and original RESEARCH Regional and national CONVENING Regional Partners Canada West Foundation Mowat Centre for Policy Innovation Écotech Québec Atlantic Provinces Economic Council

18. 18 Our Approach  Characterize the risk and show the opportunity  Develop scenarios that combine growth and decarbonization  Identify what is at stake; opportunities gained and lost  Assess comparative advantage, identifying regional and sectoral strengths and challenges  Identify where and how we need to invest to build and maintain competitiveness  Consider public and private investment in trade, innovation, skills, and energy efficiency, and emissions reduction technology and infrastructure  Propose governance structures and mechanisms that build on current approaches and integrate policies and actions  Build a policy pathway that is realistic, integrated, and dynamic for Canada…that is Canadian…for our circumstances and our goals.

19. 19 Learn more… www.nrtee-trnee.ca