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ABB INDIA LTD., Buying Level : 1580-1650. Target :1820-2000-2350. The Scrip has formed a ascending triangle between 1560-1650 on daily chart. We recommend.

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Presentation on theme: "ABB INDIA LTD., Buying Level : 1580-1650. Target :1820-2000-2350. The Scrip has formed a ascending triangle between 1560-1650 on daily chart. We recommend."— Presentation transcript:

1 ABB INDIA LTD., Buying Level : 1580-1650. Target :1820-2000-2350. The Scrip has formed a ascending triangle between 1560-1650 on daily chart. We recommend to accumulate At these levels. The scrip had taken a strong support at lower Level. A weekly close above 1660 will move the stock to the target.

2 Company Outlook ABB unveils growth plan ABB announced its growth plan for India. The company sees significant potential in India and has plans to double its business volumes by 2010 (We assume that the base for doubling of revenues would be CY07). We are encouraged by the management's outlook for growth as it is in conformity with our growth expectations. However, we note that our projections already factor in the company doubling its revenues by 2010. Business volumes in India expected to double by 2010 n Additional USD 100 mn investment announced n Employee strength expected to touch 10000 by 2010

3 ABB continues to look at India as a key focus area for the group. The Chairman of ABB Group expects Indian operations to play an integral role in strengthening ABB's global footprint. To support its growth plans, ABB India plans to significantly rampup manpower to 10000 from 6000 currently. India is expected to be among the top five markets for ABB in the coming years and ABB's strong presence, it expects the business volumes for ABB in India to double by 2010. ABB India has completed its previously announced investment programme of USD 100 mn. It now plans to invest an additional USD 100 million for capacity and range expansion over the next 2-3 years. The upcoming manufacturing units would also be used to cater to the markets in neighboring countries. Company Outlook

4 Capacity Expansion plans include a new greenfield facility near Bangalore for manufacturing Low Voltage products and Power Electronics. The company is also establishing new manufacturing units in Vadodara for Small Power Transformers and Distribution Automation products. ABB will double its production capacity for high voltage (HV) breakers, instrument transformers and HT (high tension) machines as well as expand the capacity of large power transformers to 17000 MVA as part of its expansion plans. n Looking at the strong emerging market potential in the High-Voltage segment, ABB will also manufacture 765 kV equipment in India. n In addition to its existing global Operations and Engineering Center in Bangalore a second such Center has recently been established in Chennai to support Power Systems and Process Automation projects across the world. The company plans to double its headcount at these centers from the present strength of around 350 engineers. Company Outlook

5 Earnings Outlook and Valuation ABB's order inflows have grown 34.5% in 9M CY07. Order backlog stood at Rs 49 bn providing a revenue visibility of 10 months. In our view, given ABB's lower order execution cycle, visibility of 10 months is good enough to deliver a 34.8% revenue growth in CY08. For CY09, we have projected 30% growth in revenues. Thus based on our estimates, ABB would report Rs 80 bn in revenue in CY08. Doubling of CY07 revenues would require ABB to deliver 14% rise in revenue in CY10. This implies that our growth projections capture the management's target of doubling CY07 revenues over next three years. Since March 07, ABB has clearly outperformed the broad market and has returned 136% against Sensex return of 57% over the same period. We expect earnings to grow at 42% and 35% in CY08 and CY09 respectively. As against this, the stock currently trades at 48.4x and 35.8x CY08 and CY09 earnings respectively. We highlight that investment momentum in power transmission continues to be strong on the back of rollout of power transmission infrastructure and upgradation of power distribution system. Earnings Outlook and Valuation

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7 in (Cr) Dec ' 06 Dec ' 05 Dec ' 04 Dec ' 03 Dec ' 02 Income : Operating Income 4,291.34 2,976.30 2,260.22 1,468.36 1,175.76 Expenses Material Consumed 1,244.53 892.06 717.38 553.92 487.60 Manufacturing Expenses 1,963.56 1,287.86 977.56 503.61 319.01 Personnel Expenses 241.42 178.38 136.05 116.13 120.79 Selling Expenses 63.71 50.42 42.84 24.89 16.63 Adminstrative Expenses 274.71 229.33 165.74 117.44 109.62 Expenses Capitalised 0.00 Cost Of Sales 3,787.93 2,638.05 2,039.56 1,315.98 1,053.65 Operating Profit 503.41 338.25 220.66 152.38 122.11 Income Statement

8 Other Recurring Income 50.65 30.90 41.81 19.92 21.56 Adjusted PBDIT 554.06 369.15 262.47 172.30 143.67 Financial Expenses 10.10 13.40 7.00 5.28 5.89 Depreciation 26.47 23.14 20.36 18.44 18.32 Other Write offs 0.00 Adjusted PBT 517.49 332.61 235.11 148.58 119.46 Tax Charges 182.90 120.80 86.00 51.77 41.73 Adjusted PAT 334.59 211.81 149.11 96.81 77.73 Non Recurring Items 5.71 6.87 5.21 27.61 19.34 Other Non Cash adjustments 0.00 -0.28 0.00 -3.49 0.11 Reported Net Profit 340.31 218.68 154.32 124.19 97.17 Earnigs Before Appropriation 375.25 248.61 182.16 146.77 121.74 Equity Dividend 42.38 33.91 29.67 25.43 Preference Dividend 0.00 0.48 Dividend Tax 5.94 4.76 3.88 3.26 -2.11 Retained Earnings 326.93 209.95 148.61 118.09 97.94 Income Statement

9 Dec ' 06 Dec ' 05 Dec ' 04 Dec ' 03 Dec ' 02 SOURCES OF FUNDS Owner's Fund Equity Share Capital 42.38 Share Application Money 0.00 Preference Share Capital 0.00 Reserves & Surplus 1,138.65 846.67 666.94 546.16 453.92 Loan Funds Secured Loans 0.00 Unsecured Loans 1.55 2.73 1.49 10.10 12.37 Total 1,182.58 891.78 710.81 598.64 508.67 USES OF FUNDS Fixed Assets Gross Block 514.52 414.16 358.03 313.66 286.68 Less : Revaluation Reserve 14.81 15.07 15.34 15.61 15.87 Less : Accumulated Depreciation 207.34 187.50 168.02 153.92 142.82 Net Block 292.36 211.59 174.66 144.13 127.98 Capital Work-in-progress 24.62 38.42 4.93 10.27 4.14 Balance Sheet

10 Investments 77.35 87.15 106.97 58.59 27.58 Net Current Assets Current Assets, Loans & Advances 2,813.24 2,007.45 1,421.64 1,200.78 966.64 Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions 2,025.00 1,452.83 997.39 815.12 617.67 Total Net Current Assets 788.24 554.62 424.25 385.66 348.98 Miscellaneous expenses not written 0.00 Total 1,182.57 891.78 710.81 598.65 508.68 Note : Book Value of Unquoted Investments 7.90 40.40 64.69 57.79 26.80 Market Value of Quoted Investments 71.48 52.72 41.51 1.78 0.93 Contingent liabilities 95.57 105.08 104.97 88.83 75.30 Number of Equity shares outstanding (in Lacs) 423.82 Balance Sheet

11 Dec ' 06 Dec ' 05 Dec ' 04 Dec ' 03 Dec ' 02 PER SHARE RATIOS Adjusted E P S (Rs.) 78.95 49.98 35.18 22.84 18.23 Adjusted Cash EPS (Rs.) 85.19 55.44 39.99 27.19 22.55 Reported EPS (Rs.) 80.30 51.60 36.41 29.30 22.81 Reported Cash EPS (Rs.) 86.54 57.06 41.22 33.65 27.14 Dividend Per Share 10.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 Operating Profit Per Share (Rs.) 118.78 79.81 52.06 35.95 28.81 Book Value (Excl Rev Res) Per Share (Rs.) 278.67 209.77 167.36 138.87 117.10 Book Value (Incl Rev Res) Per Share (Rs.) 282.16 213.33 170.98 142.55 120.85 Net Operating Income Per Share (Rs.) 1,012.55 702.26 533.30 346.46 277.42 Free Reserves Per Share (Rs.) 266.46 197.45 153.46 124.99 103.27 PROFITABILITY RATIOS Operating Margin (%) 11.73 11.36 9.76 10.37 10.38 Gross Profit Margin (%) 11.11 10.58 8.86 9.12 8.82 Net Profit Margin (%) 7.83 7.27 6.70 8.34 8.11 Adjusted Cash Margin (%) 8.31 7.81 7.36 7.74 8.02 Adjusted Return On Net Worth (%) 28.33 23.82 21.02 16.44 15.56 Reported Return On Net Worth (%) 28.81 24.59 21.75 21.10 19.48 Return On long Term Funds (%) 44.61 38.79 34.06 25.70 24.64 Ratios

12 LEVERAGE RATIOS Long Term Debt / Equity 0.00 0.01 0.02 Total Debt/Equity 0.00 0.01 0.02 Owners fund as % of total Source 99.86 99.69 99.78 98.31 97.56 Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio 8.59 7.42 6.52 4.82 4.10 LIQUIDITY RATIOS Current Ratio 1.39 1.38 1.43 1.47 1.56 Current Ratio (Inc. ST Loans) 1.39 1.38 1.43 1.47 1.56 Quick Ratio 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.31 1.36 Inventory Turnover Ratio 13.05 15.99 14.58 12.83 10.57 PAYOUT RATIOS Dividend payout Ratio (Net Profit) 14.20 17.67 21.73 23.09 24.11 Dividend payout Ratio (Cash Profit) 13.17 15.98 19.20 20.11 20.27 Earning Retention Ratio 85.56 81.75 77.51 70.37 69.82 Cash Earnings Retention Ratio 86.62 83.55 80.21 75.11 75.61 Ratios

13 COVERAGE RATIOS Adjusted Cash Flow Time Total Debt 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.12 Financial Charges Coverage Ratio 54.88 27.55 37.48 32.62 24.38 Fin. Charges Cov.Ratio (Post Tax) 37.33 19.05 25.94 28.00 20.59 COMPONENT RATIOS Material Cost Component(% earnings) 30.23 32.78 37.08 41.00 Selling Cost Component 1.48 1.69 1.89 1.69 1.41 Exports as percent of Total Sales 10.86 8.13 13.44 24.90 10.87 Import Comp. in Raw Mat. Consumed 40.50 44.03 53.13 56.92 40.76 Long term assets / Total Assets 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.14 Bonus Component In Equity Capital (%) 44.35 Ratios

14 Disclaimer: This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and the information contained herein may not be deemed to be an investment advice. Such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any company, industry or security. The views expressed may change. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents. Investors are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments and should consult with and rely upon their own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision. Neither the author nor his firm accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/ article. This report is exclusively for the clients of Venkataraman & Co. only. VENKATARAMAN & CO., Stock & Share Brokers, New No.2 (Old No.52) Dr. Ranga Road, Mylapore, Chennai 600 004. Web: www.venkataraman.com E-mail: vnkco@vsnl.com


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