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HYDROPOWER: A Comparative Energy Review J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC NWHA February 23, 2011
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Wood to Coal to Oil to ? 1890 1945 JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Existing Net Summer Capacity by Energy Source Source: EIA, 1/4/2011 JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Electric Generation Growth 2008 to 2035 JMR Energy Infra, LLC Source: EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook GWs
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No New Nuclear Generation Sites 1997 - 2008 1,000 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Nuclear Time and Money The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to complete. The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW. The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year 2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no long term storage. JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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New Coal Fired Generation 1997 – 2008 0 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) S is the problem. CO 2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to humans in a concentration of 10-11%. To sequestrate CO 2 – Many miles of pipe are needed. Up to 23,000 miles of CO 2 pipeline will be needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL) – Permanent, non-cycling storage sites must be found. Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent domain JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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New Non-Hydro Renewable Generation 1997 – 2008 23,000 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Wind and Solar Energy Land Use and Transmission Land use: 500 MW facility – Wind: 30,000 acres – Solar: 3,500 acres DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn Renewable sources are not near the market Current regulatory regimes for siting electric transmission are poor S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009 JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Sources: FERC Between 2000 and 2009 nine High Voltage (≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines were built 682 miles 345 kV Transmission Projects DC 765 kV JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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New Natural Gas Fired Generation 1997 – 2008 221,000 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Transco (204,236,323) Southern (336,330) Kern River (135,886) North Baja (500, 2,700) Tuscarora (96) SCG Pipeline (190) 1 2 3 Northwest (191) East Tennessee (510) TETCO (197) El Paso (230,320,150) WBI (80) ANR (194,220) 11 Cheyenne Plains (560) 13 11. CIG (85,133,105) 12. TransColorado (250) 13. WIC (120,675,350,556) 14. Entrega (1,500) 15. Rockies Express West (1,800) 8 Transwestern (500) Questar (102) Florida Gas (270) East Tennessee (170) 4 6 Northern Border (544,130) Midcontinent (1,500) Southern Trails (120) Gulfstream (1,130, 155) 7 Guardian (750, 537) Trailblazer (324) 12 El Paso (502) Golden Pass (2,500) 14 Columbia (172) 5 8 Dominion (700) Port Arthur (3,000) 9 Center Point (1,237, 280) Vector (245,105) 10 Northern Natural (374) 15 Trunkline (510) TETCO (150) Gulf South(1,700, 560) Natural (200) Elba Express (1,175) Southeast Supply(1,140,175) Gulf Crossing (1,732) Texas Gas (1,609) CenterPoint (132) Rockies Express East (1,800) CenterPoint (132) Southern/Magnolia (82) Cypress (500) NorthernStar (1,300) 1. Islander East (285) 2. Iroquois (100,200) 3. Columbia (135) 4. Transcontinental (130,142) 5. Transcontinental (100) 6. Maritimes (418) 7. Tennessee (500) 8. Tennessee (136) 9. Texas Eastern (900) 10. Algonquin (325) JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Pending Hydropower Projects Sept 2, 2010 168 MW Source: FERC 29 Projects JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Electric Generation Capital Costs Dollars Source: EIA, 2010 JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Six Principles of Energy Infrastructure Siting Six Principles HydropowerRenewables/ Transmission Natural Gas Pipelines 1) Pre-filing xx 2) Exclusive Authority ?x 3) Disciplined Schedule x 4) One Federal Record x 5) Expeditious Judicial Review x 6) Eminent Domain xx JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Cost of FERC Hydro Application JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Integrated Licensing Process JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Evolved Integrated Licensing Process PAD JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Developing a Hydropower Siting Culture Economic Interdependence Appreciation of the time scale for Major Energy Infrastructure Intergenerational Responsibility JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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Hydropower’s Future Competition without subsidies - costs Legislative/Regulatory Environment Development Culture JMR Energy Infra, LLC
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