1. Research Sponsored By the Product Development Focus Team February 12, 2001 Technology Roadmap Development Presented By: Angie Kelic

2. Kelic-2/2001 - 2 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Agenda  Review of research motivation  State of the literature  Goals of the research  Progress to date

3. Kelic-2/2001 - 3 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Timescale Discrepancy  Clockspeed (in the product)  Slower developing (example: airframe)  Faster developing (example: electronics)  Product development timescales  Electronics – 2 years  Military aircraft - ~20 years  Product lifetime  Electronics – 18 months  Military Aircraft > > 10 years

4. Kelic-2/2001 - 4 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation The Problem  Leading to:  Obsolescence in newly operational systems  Difficulty in upgrade programs  Technology obsolescence “It is essential to be aware of, and plan for, changes that are likely to occur in COTS hardware and software products.” – USAF Scientific Advisory Board report

5. Kelic-2/2001 - 5 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Historical Perspective  Why now?  Military percent of semiconductor market  1960s - ~10%  Today - <.03%  No incentive for specialized parts  Intel left the market  Motorola left the market

6. Kelic-2/2001 - 6 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Possible Solutions  Lifetime buys  Guess and stockpile  Aftermarket manufacturers  Repair issues  No learning curve/improvement  Requires fund for stockpiling  Congressionally risky

7. Kelic-2/2001 - 7 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Technology Planning  Technology roadmapping  Identify critical product needs/system requirements  Identify process and performance targets  Determine technology alternatives  Set milestones for meeting targets  May select and pursue multiple alternatives to mitigate risk  In use in aerospace for technology planning

8. Kelic-2/2001 - 8 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative What Is Roadmapping? State of the Literature  Very little (~7 articles) – mostly review of the SIA process  Exploratory thesis, 4 companies – case study  Communications systems  Electronic components  Engines  Printing systems

9. Kelic-2/2001 - 9 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative What Is Roadmapping? The Component Parts  Forecasting  Planning  Decision making  Design (Kappel, 1998)

10. Kelic-2/2001 - 10 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Research Goals  Explore the roadmapping process in aerospace  Characteristics of roadmap development  Characteristics of the roadmap  Use of roadmaps (or substitutes)  Comparisons to earlier exploratory work and examination of trends  Explore the accuracy of the forecasts in roadmapping using the SIA roadmaps as a case study

11. Kelic-2/2001 - 11 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Research Procedure  Survey on the roadmapping process  Survey on the use of roadmaps  Statistical analysis of SIA roadmap forecasts and reality

12. Kelic-2/2001 - 12 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Creation Survey  37 responses to date  ~75% military programs  Some response inconsistencies  Preliminary analysis complete  Likely to obtain additional data with data gathering effort for Roadmap Use Survey

13. Kelic-2/2001 - 13 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Position

14. Kelic-2/2001 - 14 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Type of Program

15. Kelic-2/2001 - 15 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Degree Held

16. Kelic-2/2001 - 16 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Creation

17. Kelic-2/2001 - 17 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Use

18. Kelic-2/2001 - 18 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Update Frequency

19. Kelic-2/2001 - 19 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Number of Technologies Roadmapped

20. Kelic-2/2001 - 20 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Cost

21. Kelic-2/2001 - 21 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Timespan (years)

22. Kelic-2/2001 - 22 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Information Sources

23. Kelic-2/2001 - 23 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Information Sources

24. Kelic-2/2001 - 24 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Primary Information Sources

25. Kelic-2/2001 - 25 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Primary Information Sources

26. Kelic-2/2001 - 26 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Information Sources (All and Primary)

27. Kelic-2/2001 - 27 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Team Creation

28. Kelic-2/2001 - 28 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Team Membership

29. Kelic-2/2001 - 29 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Review

30. Kelic-2/2001 - 30 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Reviewers

31. Kelic-2/2001 - 31 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Distribution

32. Kelic-2/2001 - 32 © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Critical path items  Final process survey data manipulation and write-up  Roadmap use survey data gathering (need more data, esp. from commercial programs)