1. National Weather Service Office of Science & Technology Perspective on Future Enterprise Observing Systems Mike Johnson Don Berchoff, Director Paula Davidson, Pete Roohr Office of Science & Technology National Weather Service 2 February 2010

2. Overview Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems  Requirements Process  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Summary Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems  Requirements Process  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Summary

3. NESDIS/OSD Technology, Planning and Integration Office (TPIO)…Current Process NOAA Satellite And Info. Service NESDIS National Marine Fisheries Service NMFS National Ocean Service NOS Oceanic & Atmos- pheric Research OAR National Weather Service NWS Program Planning & Inte- gration PPI Program Analysis & Eval- uation PA & E CFO Ecosystem Goal EC Climate Goal CL Weather & Water Goal WW Commerce & Transportation Goal CT Mission Support Goal MS Satellite Sub- Goal Fleet Sub-Goal MOBI Sub-Goal Leadership Sub-Goal Line and Staff Offices Goals and Sub-Goals Councils Manage observing requirements process for Interface with 3 Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO  Collect Observation Requirements  Maintain and manage Consolidated Observation Requirement List (CORL)  Manage NOAA’s observing requirement verification and validation process  NOAA Observing System Portfolio Analysis  Maintain and manage NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA)  Perform investment portfolio analysis  Develop and Analyze NOAA Environmental Data Management Systems  Maintain and manage Information Management System (IMS) inventory  Implement Global Earth Observation-Integrated Data Environment (GEO-IDE) Chief Financial Officer Provide analysis products to CFO Research Council Research NOAA Observing Systems Council NOSC NOAA Ocean Council NOC Fleet Council FC Chief Info. Officer Council CIO Chief Financial Officer Council CFO Goals and Sub-Goals

4. NOAA’s Proposed Strategy…future process (still under draft & review) NOAA’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY NOAA’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY Science Service Stewardship Mission: To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs Weather Ready Nation Sustainable, Resilient Fisheries, Species & Habitats Sustainable Coastal Communities and Economies Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Vision: Healthy and productive communities, economies, and ecosystems within a changing world Provide Science, Service, and Stewardship Produce Observations, Modeling, and Research Manage People, Finances, and Infrastructure NOAA’S 5-YEAR STRATEGY NOAA’S 5-YEAR STRATEGY Objectives NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan, Mary Glackin NOAA DUS @ Jan 2010 AMS

5. Overview Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems  Requirements Process  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Summary Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems  Requirements Process  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Summary

6. National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a Weather-Sensitive Society  Severe weather to protect lives and property  Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives  Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets  Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts  Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency  Severe weather to protect lives and property  Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives  Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets  Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts  Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP (NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)

7. Aviation Weather: High-impact Information Baseline Demand Future Demand >200% Sector Capacity 125-200% 80-125%  Air traffic likely doubling by 2025  Delays cost $41 billion/year (2007)  70% were weather related NextGen 2025 goal:  2/3 reduction with better weather information  Improvements to forecast lead- time for initiation of storm-scale convection, ceiling/visibility

8. NWS/OS&T Mission Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations  Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance)  Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions  Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation  Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next- generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc  Enable Continuous Improvement…with  Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere budget era  Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints  Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations  Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance)  Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions  Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation  Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next- generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc  Enable Continuous Improvement…with  Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere budget era  Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints  Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

9. 9 S&T Roadmap 2025 Stretch Goals Science Service Area Key Products/ Services S&T Goal 2025 Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire WeatherRed Flag Warning>24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% PODSimulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior HydrologyInundation ForecastsDependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles AviationConvection Initiation, evolution and dissipation 30 mins LTInitiation and evolution of convection Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter HazardsHigh-Res User-Defined ThresholdsSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter Storm Warning30 hour LTSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate, probabilistic 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Accuracy >85% out to day 5Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter >90% accuracy, out to day 2Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind <5 mins after triggering eventEnhanced observations and models 1km resolution, 5 min updatesMeteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Air Quality Predictions Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts Air Quality Space Weather Tsunami Emerging Areas/ Surface Wx Aviation Key Products: Key Products: Convection Initiation Convection Initiation 2025 Stretch Goal: 30 minute lead time 30 minute lead time Research Needs/Oppty Examples: Initiation, evolution of convection Initiation, evolution of convection Tropical Weather Key Products: Hurricane Track, Intensity ForecastsHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts 2025 Stretch Goal: Errors reduced by 50%Errors reduced by 50% Research Needs/Oppty Examples: Causes of rapid intensity changesCauses of rapid intensity changes http://www.weather.gov/ost/S&TRoadmap

10. Roadmap Example: Tropical Weather Better sea surface observations and data assimilation Better ocean-atmosphere coupled models Social Sciences integration … requires Stretch goal: 50% Reduction in Forecast Track and Intensity Errors

11. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program: Recent Progress Accomplishments: Improved Data Assimilation system gave 14% improvement in 5- day track forecast High resolution ensemble systems show both track and intensity forecast improvements NCEP Reworking Data Assimilation plans based on finding

12. S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Integrated Observation/Analysis System 12 Accomplishments Established Mesonet Project Office Contracts for Metadata analysis Interagency Collaboration; Committees: OFCM/Integrated Observing Systems AMS Ad Hoc Committee OSSE Testbed Analysis Inventory & Assess systems, metadata Assess i nterdepend- encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality Current Individual Systems Public, Private. Universities Radar, Satellite Surface; in-Situ, Upper Air…. Strategies Integration: National Mesonet, Network of Networks, Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR), Global Systems, multisensor platforms Optimization: OSEs, OSSEs Standards Architectures, Protocols Maximize investment value Future Weather Information Database Open Architecture

13. S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Integrated Environmental Modeling System 13 Atmospheric Model 13 Ocean Land Surface Air Quality Space Hydrology Ecosystem Ensembles Etc Resolution Changes, Downscaling Post Processing: bias correction, statistics, ensembles Product Generation Verification 4D Data Assimilation e.g. 4D Var, EnKF, hybrids Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Components PhysicsDynamics Chemistry Couplers Earth System Models Accomplishments Increased focus on external participation Investment in Developmental Test Center – WRF today; Ensembles tomorrow, Global models in future NUOPC NOAA/Navy/AF partnership WIDB Weather Industry

14. S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Next Generation Forecast and Decision Support System 14 Responders IMETS Accomplishments Innovation center outreach Groundwork to advance iNWS enterprise-wide NWS Forecasters Emergency Managers Emergency Operations Center WIDB

15. Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Integration into User Decisions Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations ForecastingForecasting 4D Wx SAS Radars Aircraft Surface Satellites Soundings Private Sector NWS Forecaster NWS Forecaster Forecast Systems Forecast Integration Statistical Forecasting Systems Numerical Modeling Systems S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Weather Information Database (WIDB) WIDB Cube Accomplishments NOMADS, MADIS, NDFD data/information ready Progress on weather IT architecture integration

16. Strategic Priorities Putting it All Together: Grand Challenge Demonstrations  For developing and injecting S&T advances needed for improved:  Prediction of initiation, evolution of convection for aviation weather, severe weather, tropical weather  Ecosystem prediction with hydrology focus  Winds forecasting for renewable energy  For developing and injecting S&T advances needed for improved:  Prediction of initiation, evolution of convection for aviation weather, severe weather, tropical weather  Ecosystem prediction with hydrology focus  Winds forecasting for renewable energy

17. Overview Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems  Requirements Process  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Summary Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systems  Requirements Process  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Summary

18. Summary  Requirements process defines observation needs to meet strategic goals  Requirements process is changing  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap defines NWS strategic goals  These goals are used as context for prioritizing observation needs to fill weather & water goals  Requirements process defines observation needs to meet strategic goals  Requirements process is changing  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap defines NWS strategic goals  These goals are used as context for prioritizing observation needs to fill weather & water goals

19. Questions? email: nwsostroadmap@noaa.gov Questions?

20. S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Incorporate Social Sciences Strategies in Research & Operations Private Sector Today Forecasters Public Decision Makers Public High Time Human Factors, Communicating Uncertainty Example Probabilistic Forecasts Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Example Probabilistic Forecasts Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Incorporating Uncertainty for Managing Risk and Making Decisions Educated on use of probabilistic guidance to ensure best response 20 Low Weather Industry Sophisticated Users Social Science Infusion Difficulty

21. Service Area Goals Science Service Area Key Products/ Services S&T Goal 2025 Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire WeatherRed Flag Warning>24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% PODSimulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior HydrologyInundation ForecastsDependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles AviationConvection Initiation30 mins LTInitiation and evolution of convection Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter HazardsHigh-Res User-Defined ThresholdsSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter Storm Warning30 hour LTSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Accuracy >85% out to day 5Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter >90% accuracy, out to day 2Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind <5 mins after triggering eventEnhanced observations and models 1km resolution, 5 min updatesMeteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Air Quality Predictions Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts Air Quality Space Weather Tsunami Emerging Areas/ Surface Wx

22. Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD) Description: Summary (report) of Program observing system requirements Requirements independent of current or planned platforms Recipients: Hardcopy/email to program managers,NOSC, etc Application: Allows program managers to review and verify current observing requirements 22 Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO

23. Halved track & intensity forecast errors Warnings and forecasts prior to cyclogenesis Communication of accurate high- resolution information Tropical Cyclones Roadmap 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25 Track forecast to 7 days Detailed storm- surge/inundation forecasts Improved tropical cyclone precip. estimates Wind radii forecasts to 5 days Wind& surge impact guidance to 36-hr Improved rapid intensity change, POD and FAR 23 Time Increasing Impact Vision Finer scale and highly accurate track, intensity and inundation forecasts that trigger appropriate responses resulting in reduced loss of life and economic impacts R&D Needs and Opportunities Cause of rapid intensity changes Key observations needed for improved forecasting Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed conditions Predictability limits Vortex-convection-environment interactions Microphysics of convection at high-resolution Social Science