1. Keeping Middle Grades Students On Track to Graduation Initial Analysis and Implications Robert Balfanz, Johns Hopkins University Liza Herzog, Philadelphia Education Fund February 2006 Support Provided by the William Penn Foundation

2. Research Question How early in the middle grades (g. 6-8) can we identify students at high risk for falling off the graduation track?

3. Important Prior Findings Students who enter high school two or more years behind grade level in math and literacy have only a 50/50 chance of on-time promotion to the 10 th g. Ninth grade retention is a major risk factor for dropping out of high school

4. Cont.-Prior Findings Student attendance, behavior, and effort all influence the likelihood that students will significantly improve their achievement levels during grades 6-8 In a representative sample of high poverty middle schools in Phila., 77% of the students who had 95%+ attendance, got excellent behavior marks, had above average effort levels in 6 th —8 th grades, and had strong teachers for 2 of the 3 years, made large achievement gains in math

5. Cont.-Prior Findings But only 20% of students in the sample of high poverty middle schools in Phila. had high attendance, excellent behavior, high effort levels throughout grades 6-8, and strong teachers in 2 of the 3 years

6. Impact of Attendance

7. Impact of Behavior

8. Impact of Effort

9. Why Focus on Middle Grades? Adolescence and living in neighborhoods with concentrated poverty have been shown to negatively impact student attendance, behavior, and effort

10. High Poverty Neighborhood % of Students who miss 20+ days (grades 1-5) % of Students who miss 20+ days (grades 6-8) # Middle Grade Students (Baltimore) Clifton-Berea15%46%513 Greenmount15%50%499 Madison21%65%552 Midway6%55%553 Park Heights17%57%627 Impact of Adolescence and Poverty on Attendance in Baltimore

11. Middle Grades Dropout Prevention Study—Data and Methods We followed all students enrolled in the 6 th grade in 1996-1997 through 2003-2004 (one year beyond standard time to graduate) We also looked at more recent cohorts of 6th graders (1998-99, 2000-01, 2003-04) to verify our findings We did a preliminary screen of about 20 variables (i.e., test scores, overage, course failures, attendance, behavior marks) to see which, if any, could identify as early as 6 th grade students at high risk for falling off the graduation track

12. Data and Methods (cont.) We looked for variables with a high yield (75%+ students with this characteristic do not make it to the 12 th grade on time) Once we identified these variables, we looked at their impact on graduation status (on-time and within one extra year)

13. Data and Methods (cont.) Examples of VARIABLES SCREENED Student status: Special ed, ESL Standardized test scores –PSSA by scoring level (e.g., proficient, basic) –TerraNova by decile (<10 th, 11-20 th, 21-30 th, 31-40 th ) Course Failure: core courses 5 th grade (Big Four) Overage: 1-2 years, 2 years+ 9 th g. repeaters # Suspensions Race Gender SES

14. Findings-- 4 Powerful 6 th Grade Predictors of ‘Falling Off Track’ Attending school 80% or less of the time Receiving a poor final behavior mark Failing Math Failing English

15. Significant Numbers of 6 th Graders Have These Risk Factors In a given year, between 1,000-2,000 6 th graders in Philadelphia have each of these risk factors Students typically have one or two risk factors Only a few have three, virtually none have all four Altogether, about 3500 6 th graders in 1996/97 had one or more of these risk factors

16. These 6 th Graders Account for 40% of SDP Students Who Do Not Graduate 6 th graders who do not attend regularly, receive poor behavior marks, or fail math or English have no more than –a 10% chance of graduating on time –a 20% chance of graduating one year late

17. They Also: Score poorly on the PSSA Become overage in the middle grades Become 9 th grade repeaters (often for several years)

18. Attendance Low attending sixth graders (students missing betw. 36 and 54 school days) have a 1 in 5 chance of making it to 12 th grade on time Only 14% graduate on time or within one extra year

19. Behavior Sixth graders with poor behavior (students earning an unsatisfactory final behavior mark) have a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the 12 th g. on time Only 17% graduate on time or within one extra year

20. Failed Math Sixth graders who fail math have less than a 1 in 5 chance of making it to the 12 th grade on time Only 21% graduate either on time or with one extra year

21. Failed English Sixth graders who fail English have a 1 in 8 chance of making it to the 12 th grade on time Only 16% graduate on time or with one extra year

22. Comparison Group Sixth graders with 90%+ att., excellent behavior, passed math and English, and scored at or above basic on the 5 th grade PSSA math and reading have more than a 3 in 4 chance of making it to the 12 th grade on time 69% graduate on time or with one extra year

23. How Many Students With These Risk Factors Are Found in Our Middle Schools?

24. Successive Cohorts Numbers of 6 th g. students in SDP in need of interventions remains high

25. Agency Interaction: 6 th Grade Risk Factors,* Social Service Agency Involvement,** and Teenage Pregnancy % of Students Involved with Social Service Agency % of All 6 th Grade Cohort Involved with Social Service Agency % of Females that Have a Child During Adolescence % of All 6 th Grade Cohort Females that have Child during Adolescence Have 6 th Grade Risk Factor 28%69%19%61% No 6 th Grade Risk Factor 10%31%7%39% *6 th grade risk factors include: poor attendance, poor behavior mark, fail math or fail English **Agency involvement includes: foster care, substantiated abuse and neglect, other DHS out of home placement (i.e., group home), juvenile justice out-of-home placement

26. Implications As early as the sixth grade, we can identify a significant percentage of students who will ultimately leave SDP without graduating Before they drop out, these students will have multiple years of low test scores, poor behavior, and weak attendance This will impact not only the students themselves but the schools they attend

27. Implications (cont.) Intervening early and getting students “back on track” will not only decrease the dropout rate but will have positive impacts on middle grade and high school test scores, attendance, and overall school climate

28. Implications (cont.) Different groups of students will need different interventions As a result, the number of 6 th graders needing additional supports can easily reach 50 to 100 students per school

29. How Can Middle Grades Be Re-designed and Re- envisioned… So that students make significant achievement gains? So that students stay on track to graduation?

30. Middle Grade Schools Need to… Acknowledge the impact of adolescence Acknowledge the impact of poverty Develop preventative and proactive strategies to mitigate their effects …In addition to having strong school-wide instructional programs, quality teachers, and strong professional development/teacher support

31. Impact of Poverty on 6 th Grade Risk Factors, SDP

32. Combining Academic and Social Supports is Key The Good News: Research-based programs and approaches exist for both academic and social supports, for four levels of intervention The Real Deal: Will take reorganization of human effort, resources, and outlook to implement academic and social supports well and widely

33. Four Levels of Interventions Needed Systemic School-wide Targeted Intensive

34. Interventions Needed: Systemic

35. Interventions Needed- Attendance

36. Interventions Needed-- Behavior

37. Interventions Needed—Course Failure

38. Creating Smaller, More Personalized, Community- Based Middle Grade Schools Will Help

39. But… By Itself, This is Not Enough

40. Impact of K-8s on 6 th Grade Risk Factors, SDP

41. Conclusion Middle grades reform in urban, high- poverty districts needs to be based on a proactive, preventative vision Transition to adolescence in neighborhoods of concentrated poverty can be a perilous time –A near majority of Philadelphia students are falling off the grad track at this point

42. Conclusion (cont.) Middle Grades schools need to assume that significant numbers of sixth graders will have attendance or behavior issues and/or need extra support in math and reading Without intervention, we can be fairly certain that these students will fall off track to graduation Middle grade schools need to be organized and resourced to meet the needs of these young people

43. Next Steps– Need Integrated Supports Putting all of these interventions in place in a coordinated, integrated, and comprehensive fashion in schools serving middle grades students; and Establishing effective partnerships between schools and social service providers