1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 8, 2012

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:2008 and 2010 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action Projects: –First Meetings: Education: 23 February Cities: 8 March Regional: 13 March Universities: ?????

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global

4. Reading Response: Due March 14, 2012 Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link)link Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link)link Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do not need to be elaborate, but they should also not summarize the reading. They should be used by you as think pieces to refine your questions and insight from the readings. They must be submitted via CTools at least two hours before the start of lecture for the relevant readings.

5. Wedges on the Web Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton UniversityCarbon Mitigation Initiative

6. Today Energy supply decarbonization ‘tools’ –Energy efficiency –Renewable energies –Carbon sequestration –Biofuels Some organizing figures Structure of problem solving

7. Pielke Jr. argues The need for technology to make solutions possible. Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative Must go –From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap –To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive We need to de-carbonize energy

8. Energy Decarbonization Tools:1. Efficiency Gains The low-hanging fruit! Essentially three kinds: –End-use electricity efficiency (fluorescent bulbs instead of incandescent bulbs) –Energy generation efficiency (coal plant operating at 60 % efficiency instead of current 40 %) –Transportation efficiency (60 mpg instead of 30 mpg) Efficiency gains are generally cheap mitigation options But will only get so far before cutting into primary energy used for economic activity

9. Energy Decarbonization Tools: 2. Renewable energy Hydro-power –Already widely used - not much potential for expansion Wind –Abundant and competitive Solar –Photovoltaic (PV) –Concentrating solar

10. Energy Decarbonization Tools: 2a. Wind Probably most promising renewable energy source Supplies ~1 % of world electricity, ~0.3 % in US Is cost-effective against coal and natural gas Is undergoing very rapid growth Wind energy cost in $/kWh

11. Advantages: –Wind energy is relatively mature technology and is cost effective –Can be utilized at all scales Large wind farms On small agricultural farms –Total theoretical potential of wind energy on land/near shore is 5x current energy consumption  Large potential for expansion Energy Decarbonization Tools: 2a. Wind

12. Disadvantages: –Dependent on Production Tax Credits provided by congress (~2 cents/kWh) to be competitive –Horizon pollution and NIMBY siting problems –Birds…(though this is often over-stated – about 1-2 birds per turbine per year) –Wind is intermittent! It can therefore not make up a large fraction of base load (unless effective energy storage) Energy Decarbonization Tools: 2a. Wind

13. Energy Decarbonization Tools: 2b. Solar Essentially three kinds: 1.Solar heat –Water is heated directly by sunlight –Used cost-effectively on small scale in houses 2.Solar photovoltaic (PV) –Uses photo-electric effect (Einstein!) to produce electricity –Supplies ~0.04 % of world energy use 3.Solar concentrated –Use large mirrors to focus sunlight on steam turbine or very efficient PV panels –More cost-effective than just PV

14. Energy Decarbonization Tools: 2b. Solar Advantages: –Enormous theoretical potential! –Applicable at various scales (individual houses to solar plants) –Solar heating can be cost effective –Economy of scale and/or breakthroughs might reduce costs of PV and solar concentrated Disadvantages –PV and solar concentrated are expensive! Currently only cost- effective with government subsidies –Intermittent – can not make up large portion of base load (except with storage capability) –Covers land with solar panels

15. Energy Decarbonization Tools: 3. Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Main idea: –Burn fossil fuels for electricity/hydrogen production –Capture CO 2 –‘Sequester’ it in geological formation, oil/gas field, or ocean floor This principle is immensely important for future CO 2 mitigation! –Fossil fuels are abundant and cheap –Renewable energy generally not mature enough to replace fossil fuels –Coal-fired power plants with CCS could provide low-carbon energy at competitive costs

16. CCS: Carbon Capture Both conventional and modern types of coal-fired power plants can be adapted for CCS Conventional coal-fired power plant: –Burn coal in air (much like the old days) –Exhaust gas is ~15 % CO 2 (rest is mostly nitrogen and water vapor) –Exhaust gas flows over chemicals that selectively absorb CO 2 (‘amines’) –The amines are heated to ~150 ºC to give up the CO 2 and produce a (nearly) pure CO 2 gas that can be sequestered. Modern coal-fired power plant: –Coal is burned with pure oxygen in a gasification chamber to produce hydrogen and CO 2 –The CO 2 is filtered out and the hydrogen is burned for electricity

17. CCS: Sequestration 1.Depleted oil/gas reservoirs (can even be used to enhance oil/gas recovery – reduces costs) 2.Deep saline (brine) formations – these are porous media in which CO 2 can be stored and dissolve in the salty water 3.Use for coal-bed methane recovery (one of those ‘unconventional’ fossil fuels) 4.Ocean floor (very controversial!)  CO 2 can be sequestered at ~1 km underground, here pressure is high enough to liquify CO 2, which helps prevent it from leaking  Several options for sequestering CO 2:

18. CCS: economics CCS could become cost-effective with future carbon legislation

19. Energy Decarbonization Tools: 4. Biofuels Initially hailed as a sustainable substitute for oil Can help reduce oil imports and improve national security –In US, this is probably main motivation for recent push (“addicted to oil”, Bush’s 2006 State of the Union) Two main kinds of biofuels: 1.First generation: Produced by converting sugar in corn, sugar beets, etc., into ethanol (alcohol) 2.Second generation: Produced through “cellulosic conversion” of biomass into sugar, then sugar into ethanol Climate change impact of different biofuels is very different!

20. Biofuels – First Generation In US, mainly corn-based ethanol –Heavily subsidized by federal government to reduce oil dependence (~$1.90/gallon) Effect on climate change is negative: –Energy used in production is comparable to energy content –Significant amounts of N 2 O (a potent GHG) can be produced through fertilizer use –Often, more carbon would be sequestered by letting crop land lie fallow –Raises food prices  Tropical deforestation, which releases more carbon than saved from fuel production over > 30-year period Source: Fargione et al., Science, 2008

21. Biofuels – Second Generation Produced from plants containing cellulose –Cellulosic conversion to sugar is very difficult and expensive! (cows have 4 stomach compartments for a reason…) Second generation biofuels are better for climate change: –Similar amount of carbon sequestered as fallow cropland –But, competition with food could still lead to tropical deforestation and net release of carbon! US 1 st generation biofuel US 2 nd generation biofuel

22. Biofuels – do they help or hurt? In general, biofuels that compete with food will not contribute to mitigating climate change –Direct link between food demand/prices and tropical deforestation Production of first generation biofuels (directly from food such as corn) is not a solution to climate change and should be avoided! Production of second generation biofuels (from biomass) is only helpful if it doesn’t compete with food production (so not grown on cropland) –Second generation biofuels from marginal farmland or agricultural waste could play important role, but is currently not cost-effective –Could play an important role in mitigating transportation emissions if breakthroughs in cellulosic conversion are made

23. Some Biofuel References Searchinger, Ethanol and Greenhouse gases, 2008Searchinger, Ethanol and Greenhouse gases, 2008 Tilman, Biofuels and Food and Energy and Environment, 2009Tilman, Biofuels and Food and Energy and Environment, 2009 Fargione, Biofuels and Land Use, 2008 Royal Society, Biofuels, 2008 DOE, Energy and Water Use, 2006

24. Water Energy Intersection Both energy and water are critical resources Many areas already suffer water stress –note Africa, India, China, where greatest population growth is projected to occur Projected to become worse with increasing population, pollution, and climate change –Dry areas are generally projected to become drier. Must address energy challenge without exacerbating water scarcity

25. Energy Summary (1) Energy is far more important to policy makers than climate change –Energy Security –Existing versus Potential Futures Interface of Climate, Economics and Policy –Standard of living –Employment

26. Energy Summary (2) Energy is highly controversial amongst climate scientists worried about mitigation –Role of nuclear energy Jim Hansen and nuclear energy Rocky Mountain Institute Union of Concerned Scientists Nathan Lewis Summary –Coal with sequestration –Nuclear with breeder reactors –Solar with technology development

27. Today Energy supply decarbonization ‘tools’ –Energy efficiency –Renewable energies –Carbon sequestration –Biofuels Some organizing figures Structure of problem solving

28. Summary Points: Science Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Consequences Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Attribution

29. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

30. Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation

31. Summary Points: U.S. Energy

32. McKinsey 2007: Large

33. Thinking about the lay of the line …

34. Oil Consumption - Production CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION Energy Information Administration

35. ENERGY VERSUS HUNGER RICH VERSUS POOR Amigos de la Tierra Int. y Acción Ecológica 2002. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos ENERGY HUNGER

36. Today Energy supply decarbonization ‘tools’ –Energy efficiency –Renewable energies –Carbon sequestration –Biofuels Some organizing figures Structure of problem solving

37. Granularity No matter how we cut through this problem we come to the conclusion that there is a lot of granularity within the problem. This granularity represents complexity, which must be used to develop a portfolio of solutions rather than to classify the problem as intractable.

38. The previous viewgraphs have introduced “granularity” This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem. –Ethics –Economics –Reaction versus anticipation Similarly, regional versus global Rich and poor Competing approaches –Mitigation versus adaptation –Transportation versus Electrical Generation –This versus that

39. We arrive at levels of granularity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales. Need to introduce spatial scales as well Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change

40. What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

41. Structure of Problem Solving (http://glisaclimate.org/home )http://glisaclimate.org/home

42. Projects

43. Use of climate information Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: –Co-development / Co-generation –Trust –Narratives –Scale Spatial Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005

44. Projects Broad subjects and teams defined Meeting 1 with Rood –Now to early March: Project vision and goals Meeting 2 with Rood –Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed Class review –Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 Final written report: April 25

45. Project Teams Education / Denial –Allison Caine –Nayiri Haroutunian –Elizabeth McBride –Michelle Reicher

46. Project Teams Regional –Emily Basham –Catherine Kent –Sarah Schwimmer –James Toth –Nicholas Fantin

47. Project Teams City –Jian Wei Ang –Erin Dagg –Caroline Kinstle –Heather Lucier

48. Project Teams University –Nathan Hamet –Adam Schneider –Jillian Talaski –Victor Vardan

49. glisaclimate.org Goal to facilitate problem solving –Based on class experience –Support narratives –Build templates for problem solving