1. 3 - 1© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 3 Project Management PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer and Render Operations Management, 10e Principles of Operations Management, 8e PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl

2. 3 - 2© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Outline  Global Company Profile: Bechtel Group  The Importance of Project Management  Project Planning  The Project Manager  Work Breakdown Structure  Project Scheduling

3. 3 - 3© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Outline - Continued  Project Controlling  Project Management Techniques: PERT and CPM  The Framework of PERT and CPM  Network Diagrams and Approaches  Activity-on-Node Example  Activity-on-Arrow Example

4. 3 - 4© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Outline - Continued  Determining the Project Schedule  Forward Pass  Backward Pass  Calculating Slack Time and Identifying the Critical Path(s)  Variability in Activity Times  Three Time Estimates in PERT  Probability of Project Completion

5. 3 - 5© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Outline - Continued  Cost-Time Trade-Offs and Project Crashing  A Critique of PERT and CPM  Using Microsoft Project to Manage Projects

6. 3 - 6© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Learning Objectives 1.Use a Gantt chart for scheduling 2.Draw AOA and AON networks 3.Complete forward and backward passes for a project 4.Determine a critical path When you complete this chapter you should be able to:

7. 3 - 7© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Learning Objectives 5.Calculate the variance of activity times 6.Crash a project When you complete this chapter you should be able to:

8. 3 - 8© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Bechtel Projects  Building 26 massive distribution centers in just two years for the internet company Webvan Group ($1 billion)  Constructing 30 high-security data centers worldwide for Equinix, Inc. ($1.2 billion)  Building and running a rail line between London and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion)  Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea region to Russia ($850 million)  Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600 million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2 billion)

9. 3 - 9© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Bechtel Projects  Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen $2 billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)  Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6 billion)  Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand ($700 million)  Building 30 plants for iMotors.com, a company that sells refurbished autos online ($300 million)  Building a highway to link the north and south of Croatia ($303 million)

10. 3 - 10© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Strategic Importance of Project Management  Bechtel Project Management:  Iraq war aftermath  International workforce, construction professionals, cooks, medical personnel, security  Millions of tons of supplies  Hard Rock Cafe Rockfest Project:  100,000 + fans  planning began 9 months in advance

11. 3 - 11© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Single unit  Many related activities  Difficult production planning and inventory control  General purpose equipment  High labor skills Project Characteristics

12. 3 - 12© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Examples of Projects  Building Construction  Research Project

13. 3 - 13© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Management of Projects 1.Planning - goal setting, defining the project, team organization 2.Scheduling - relates people, money, and supplies to specific activities and activities to each other 3.Controlling - monitors resources, costs, quality, and budgets; revises plans and shifts resources to meet time and cost demands

14. 3 - 14© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Planning  Objectives  Resources  Work break-down structure  Organization  Scheduling  Project activities  Start & end times  Network  Controlling  Monitor, compare, revise, action Project Management Activities

15. 3 - 15© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 BeforeStart of projectDuring projectTimelineproject

16. 3 - 16© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 BeforeStart of projectDuring projectTimelineproject

17. 3 - 17© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 BeforeStart of projectDuring projectTimelineproject

18. 3 - 18© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 BeforeStart of projectDuring projectTimelineproject

19. 3 - 19© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 BeforeStart of projectDuring projectTimelineproject Budgets Delayed activities report Slack activities report Time/cost estimates Budgets Engineering diagrams Cash flow charts Material availability details CPM/PERT Gantt charts Milestone charts Cash flow schedules

20. 3 - 20© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Establishing objectives  Defining project  Creating work breakdown structure  Determining resources  Forming organization Project Planning

21. 3 - 21© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Often temporary structure  Uses specialists from entire company  Headed by project manager  Coordinates activities  Monitors schedule and costs  Permanent structure called ‘matrix organization’ Project Organization

22. 3 - 22© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Organization Works Best When 1.Work can be defined with a specific goal and deadline 2.The job is unique or somewhat unfamiliar to the existing organization 3.The work contains complex interrelated tasks requiring specialized skills 4.The project is temporary but critical to the organization 5.The project cuts across organizational lines

23. 3 - 23© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall A Sample Project Organization Test Engineer Mechanical Engineer Project 1 Project Manager Technician Project 2 Project Manager Electrical Engineer Computer Engineer Marketing Finance Human Resources Design Quality Mgt Production President Figure 3.2

24. 3 - 24© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Matrix Organization MarketingOperationsEngineeringFinance Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4

25. 3 - 25© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall The Role of the Project Manager Highly visible Responsible for making sure that: 1.All necessary activities are finished in order and on time 2.The project comes in within budget 3.The project meets quality goals 4.The people assigned to the project receive motivation, direction, and information

26. 3 - 26© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall The Role of the Project Manager Highly visible Responsible for making sure that: 1.All necessary activities are finished in order and on time 2.The project comes in within budget 3.The project meets quality goals 4.The people assigned to the project receive motivation, direction, and information Project managers should be:  Good coaches  Good communicators  Able to organize activities from a variety of disciplines

27. 3 - 27© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Ethical Issues 1.Offers of gifts from contractors 2.Pressure to alter status reports to mask delays 3.False reports for charges of time and expenses 4.Pressure to compromise quality to meet schedules  Project managers face many ethical decisions on a daily basis  The Project Management Institute has established an ethical code to deal with problems such as:

28. 3 - 28© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Work Breakdown Structure Level 1.Project 2.Major tasks in the project 3.Subtasks in the major tasks 4.Activities (or work packages) to be completed

29. 3 - 29© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Level 4 Compatible with Windows ME Compatible with Windows Vista Compatible with Windows XP 1.1.2.3 1.1.2.2 1.1.2.1 (Work packages) Level 3 Develop GUIs Planning Module Testing Ensure Compatibility with Earlier Versions Cost/Schedule Management Defect Testing 1.1.1 1.2.21.3.2 1.3.11.2.1 1.1.2 Work Breakdown Structure Figure 3.3 Level 2 Software Design Project Management System Testing 1.11.2 1.3 Level 1 Develop Windows 7 Operating System 1.0

30. 3 - 30© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Scheduling  Identifying precedence relationships  Sequencing activities  Determining activity times & costs  Estimating material & worker requirements  Determining critical activities

31. 3 - 31© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Purposes of Project Scheduling 1.Shows the relationship of each activity to others and to the whole project 2.Identifies the precedence relationships among activities 3.Encourages the setting of realistic time and cost estimates for each activity 4.Helps make better use of people, money, and material resources by identifying critical bottlenecks in the project

32. 3 - 32© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Scheduling Techniques 1.Ensure that all activities are planned for 2.Their order of performance is accounted for 3.The activity time estimates are recorded 4.The overall project time is developed

33. 3 - 33© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Gantt chart  Critical Path Method (CPM)  Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Project Management Techniques

34. 3 - 34© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall A Simple Gantt Chart Time J F M A M J J A S Design Prototype Test Revise Production

35. 3 - 35© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Service For a Delta Jet Figure 3.4 Passengers Baggage Fueling Cargo and mail Galley servicing Lavatory servicing Drinking water Cabin cleaning Cargo and mail Flight services Operating crew Baggage Passengers Deplaning Baggage claim Container offload Pumping Engine injection water Container offload Main cabin door Aft cabin door Aft, center, forward Loading First-class section Economy section Container/bulk loading Galley/cabin check Receive passengers Aircraft check Loading Boarding 010203040 Time, Minutes

36. 3 - 36© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Control Reports  Detailed cost breakdowns for each task  Total program labor curves  Cost distribution tables  Functional cost and hour summaries  Raw materials and expenditure forecasts  Variance reports  Time analysis reports  Work status reports

37. 3 - 37© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Network techniques  Developed in 1950’s  CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)  PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)  Consider precedence relationships and interdependencies  Each uses a different estimate of activity times PERT and CPM

38. 3 - 38© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Six Steps PERT & CPM 1.Define the project and prepare the work breakdown structure 2.Develop relationships among the activities - decide which activities must precede and which must follow others 3.Draw the network connecting all of the activities

39. 3 - 39© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Six Steps PERT & CPM 4.Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity 5.Compute the longest time path through the network – this is called the critical path 6.Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the project

40. 3 - 40© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 1.When will the entire project be completed? 2.What are the critical activities or tasks in the project? 3.Which are the noncritical activities? 4.What is the probability the project will be completed by a specific date? Questions PERT & CPM Can Answer

41. 3 - 41© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 5.Is the project on schedule, behind schedule, or ahead of schedule? 6.Is the money spent equal to, less than, or greater than the budget? 7.Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? 8.If the project must be finished in a shorter time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost? Questions PERT & CPM Can Answer

42. 3 - 42© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions Activity onActivityActivity on Node (AON)MeaningArrow (AOA) A comes before B, which comes before C. (a) A B C BAC A and B must both be completed before C can start. (b) A C C B A B B and C cannot begin until A is completed. (c) B A C A B C Figure 3.5

43. 3 - 43© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions Activity onActivityActivity on Node (AON)MeaningArrow (AOA) C and D cannot begin until both A and B are completed. (d) A B C D B AC D C cannot begin until both A and B are completed; D cannot begin until B is completed. A dummy activity is introduced in AOA. (e) CA BD Dummy activity A B C D Figure 3.5

44. 3 - 44© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions Activity onActivityActivity on Node (AON)MeaningArrow (AOA) B and C cannot begin until A is completed. D cannot begin until both B and C are completed. A dummy activity is again introduced in AOA. (f) A C DB AB C D Dummy activity Figure 3.5

45. 3 - 45© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall AON Example ActivityDescription Immediate Predecessors ABuild internal components— BModify roof and floor— CConstruct collection stackA DPour concrete and install frameA, B EBuild high-temperature burnerC FInstall pollution control systemC GInstall air pollution deviceD, E HInspect and testF, G Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing's Activities and Predecessors Table 3.1

46. 3 - 46© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall AON Network for Milwaukee Paper A Start B Start Activity Activity A (Build Internal Components) Activity B (Modify Roof and Floor) Figure 3.6

47. 3 - 47© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall AON Network for Milwaukee Paper Figure 3.7 C D A Start B Activity A Precedes Activity C Activities A and B Precede Activity D

48. 3 - 48© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall AON Network for Milwaukee Paper G E F H C A Start DB Arrows Show Precedence Relationships Figure 3.8

49. 3 - 49© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall H (Inspect/ Test) 7 Dummy Activity AOA Network for Milwaukee Paper 6 F (Install Controls) E (Build Burner) G (Install Pollution Device) 5 D (Pour Concrete/ Install Frame) 4 C (Construct Stack) 1 3 2 B (Modify Roof/Floor) A (Build Internal Components) Figure 3.9

50. 3 - 50© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Determining the Project Schedule Perform a Critical Path Analysis  The critical path is the longest path through the network  The critical path is the shortest time in which the project can be completed  Any delay in critical path activities delays the project  Critical path activities have no slack time

51. 3 - 51© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Determining the Project Schedule Perform a Critical Path Analysis Table 3.2 ActivityDescriptionTime (weeks) ABuild internal components2 BModify roof and floor3 CConstruct collection stack2 DPour concrete and install frame4 EBuild high-temperature burner4 FInstall pollution control system 3 GInstall air pollution device5 HInspect and test2 Total Time (weeks)25

52. 3 - 52© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Determining the Project Schedule Perform a Critical Path Analysis Table 3.2 ActivityDescriptionTime (weeks) ABuild internal components2 BModify roof and floor3 CConstruct collection stack2 DPour concrete and install frame4 EBuild high-temperature burner4 FInstall pollution control system 3 GInstall air pollution device5 HInspect and test2 Total Time (weeks)25 Earliest start (ES) =earliest time at which an activity can start, assuming all predecessors have been completed Earliest finish (EF) =earliest time at which an activity can be finished Latest start (LS) =latest time at which an activity can start so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project Latest finish (LF) =latest time by which an activity has to be finished so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project

53. 3 - 53© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Determining the Project Schedule Perform a Critical Path Analysis Figure 3.10 A Activity Name or Symbol Earliest Start ES Earliest Finish EF Latest Start LS Latest Finish LF Activity Duration 2

54. 3 - 54© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Forward Pass Begin at starting event and work forward Earliest Start Time Rule:  If an activity has only a single immediate predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the predecessor  If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors, its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its predecessors ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}

55. 3 - 55© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Forward Pass Begin at starting event and work forward Earliest Finish Time Rule:  The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity time EF = ES + Activity time

56. 3 - 56© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper Start 0 0 ES 0 EF = ES + Activity time

57. 3 - 57© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper Start 0 0 0 A2A2 2 EF of A = ES of A + 2 0 ES of A

58. 3 - 58© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall B3B3 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 3 EF of B = ES of B + 3 0 ES of B

59. 3 - 59© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall C2C2 24 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20

60. 3 - 60© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall C2C2 24 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 D4D4 7 3 = Max (2, 3)

61. 3 - 61© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall D4D4 37 C2C2 24 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20

62. 3 - 62© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 Figure 3.11

63. 3 - 63© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Backward Pass Begin with the last event and work backwards Latest Finish Time Rule:  If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the activity that immediately follows it  If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more than one activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all activities that immediately follow it LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}

64. 3 - 64© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Backward Pass Begin with the last event and work backwards Latest Start Time Rule:  The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its activity time LS = LF – Activity time

65. 3 - 65© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall LS/LF Times for Milwaukee Paper E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 LF = EF of Project 1513 LS = LF – Activity time

66. 3 - 66© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall LS/LF Times for Milwaukee Paper E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 15 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 LF = Min(LS of following activity) 1013

67. 3 - 67© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall LS/LF Times for Milwaukee Paper E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 15 1013 8 48 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 LF = Min(4, 10) 42

68. 3 - 68© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall LS/LF Times for Milwaukee Paper E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 15 1013 8 48 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 42 84 20 41 00

69. 3 - 69© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Computing Slack Time After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for all activities, compute the slack or free time for each activity  Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

70. 3 - 70© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Computing Slack Time Table 3.3 EarliestEarliestLatestLatestOn StartFinishStartFinishSlackCritical ActivityESEFLSLFLS – ESPath A02020Yes B03141No C24240Yes D37481No E48480Yes F4710136No G8138130Yes H131513150Yes

71. 3 - 71© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Critical Path for Milwaukee Paper E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 15 1013 8 48 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 42 84 20 41 00

72. 3 - 72© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall ES – EF Gantt Chart for Milwaukee Paper ABuild internal components BModify roof and floor CConstruct collection stack DPour concrete and install frame EBuild high- temperature burner FInstall pollution control system GInstall air pollution device HInspect and test 12345678910111213141516

73. 3 - 73© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall LS – LF Gantt Chart for Milwaukee Paper ABuild internal components BModify roof and floor CConstruct collection stack DPour concrete and install frame EBuild high- temperature burner FInstall pollution control system GInstall air pollution device HInspect and test 12345678910111213141516

74. 3 - 74© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for each activity and there is no variability in activity times  PERT uses a probability distribution for activity times to allow for variability Variability in Activity Times

75. 3 - 75© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall  Three time estimates are required  Optimistic time (a) – if everything goes according to plan  Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very unfavorable conditions  Most likely time (m) – most realistic estimate Variability in Activity Times

76. 3 - 76© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Estimate follows beta distribution Variability in Activity Times Expected time: Variance of times: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 v = [(b – a)/6] 2

77. 3 - 77© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Estimate follows beta distribution Variability in Activity Times Expected time: Variance of times: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 v = [(b − a)/6]2 Probability of 1 in 100 of > b occurring Probability of 1 in 100 of < a occurring Probability Optimistic Time (a) Most Likely Time (m) Pessimistic Time (b) Activity Time Figure 3.12

78. 3 - 78© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Computing Variance Table 3.4 MostExpected OptimisticLikelyPessimisticTimeVariance Activity ambt = (a + 4m + b)/6[(b – a)/6] 2 A1232.11 B2343.11 C1232.11 D2464.44 E14741.00 F12931.78 G341151.78 H1232.11

79. 3 - 79© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities  2 = Project variance =  (variances of activities on critical path) p

80. 3 - 80© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities Project variance  2 =.11 +.11 + 1.00 + 1.78 +.11 = 3.11 Project standard deviation  p = Project variance = 3.11 = 1.76 weeks p

81. 3 - 81© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion PERT makes two more assumptions:  Total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution  Activity times are statistically independent

82. 3 - 82© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks 15 Weeks (Expected Completion Time) Figure 3.13

83. 3 - 83© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 week deadline? Z=–/  p = (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76 = 0.57 dueexpected date dateof completion Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date

84. 3 - 84© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 week deadline? Z=−/  p = (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76 = 0.57 dueexpected date dateof completion Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date.00.01.07.08.1.50000.50399.52790.53188.2.53983.54380.56749.57142.5.69146.69497.71566.71904.6.72575.72907.74857.75175 From Appendix I

85. 3 - 85© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Probability of Project Completion Time Probability (T ≤ 16 weeks) is 71.57% Figure 3.14 0.57 Standard deviations 1516 WeeksWeeks

86. 3 - 86© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Determining Project Completion Time Probability of 0.01 Z Figure 3.15 From Appendix I Probability of 0.99 2.33 Standard deviations 02.33

87. 3 - 87© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Variability of Completion Time for Noncritical Paths  Variability of times for activities on noncritical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time  Variation in noncritical activity may cause change in critical path

88. 3 - 88© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall What Project Management Has Provided So Far 1.The project’s expected completion time is 15 weeks 2.There is a 71.57% chance the equipment will be in place by the 16 week deadline 3.Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on the critical path 4.Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the critical path and have slack time 5.A detailed schedule is available

89. 3 - 89© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Trade-Offs and Project Crashing  The project is behind schedule  The completion time has been moved forward It is not uncommon to face the following situations: Shortening the duration of the project is called project crashing

90. 3 - 90© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Factors to Consider When Crashing a Project  The amount by which an activity is crashed is, in fact, permissible  Taken together, the shortened activity durations will enable us to finish the project by the due date  The total cost of crashing is as small as possible

91. 3 - 91© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Steps in Project Crashing 1.Compute the crash cost per time period. If crash costs are linear over time: Crash cost per period = (Crash cost – Normal cost) (Normal time – Crash time) 2.Using current activity times, find the critical path and identify the critical activities

92. 3 - 92© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Steps in Project Crashing 3.If there is only one critical path, then select the activity on this critical path that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per period. If there is more than one critical path, then select one activity from each critical path such that (a) each selected activity can still be crashed, and (b) the total crash cost of all selected activities is the smallest. Note that the same activity may be common to more than one critical path.

93. 3 - 93© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Steps in Project Crashing 4.Update all activity times. If the desired due date has been reached, stop. If not, return to Step 2.

94. 3 - 94© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Crashing The Project Table 3.5 Time (Wks)Cost ($) Crash CostCritical ActivityNormalCrashNormalCrashPer Wk ($)Path? A2122,00022,750750Yes B3130,00034,0002,000No C2126,00027,0001,000Yes D4248,00049,0001,000No E4256,00058,0001,000Yes F3230,00030,500500No G5280,00084,5001,500Yes H2116,00019,0003,000Yes

95. 3 - 95© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Crash and Normal Times and Costs for Activity B ||| 123Time (Weeks) $34,000 — $33,000 — $32,000 — $31,000 — $30,000 — — Activity Cost Crash Normal Crash TimeNormal Time Crash Cost Normal Cost Crash Cost/Wk = Crash Cost – Normal Cost Normal Time – Crash Time = $34,000 – $30,000 3 – 1 = = $2,000/Wk $4,000 2 Wks Figure 3.16

96. 3 - 96© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Critical Path and Slack Times for Milwaukee Paper Figure 3.17 E4E4 F3F3 G5G5 H2H2 481315 4 813 7 15 1013 8 48 D4D4 37 C2C2 24 B3B3 03 Start 0 0 0 A2A2 20 42 84 20 41 00 Slack = 1 Slack = 0Slack = 6 Slack = 0

97. 3 - 97© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Advantages of PERT/CPM 1.Especially useful when scheduling and controlling large projects 2.Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex 3.Graphical networks help highlight relationships among project activities 4.Critical path and slack time analyses help pinpoint activities that need to be closely watched

98. 3 - 98© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Advantages of PERT/CPM 5.Project documentation and graphics point out who is responsible for various activities 6.Applicable to a wide variety of projects 7.Useful in monitoring not only schedules but costs as well

99. 3 - 99© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 1.Project activities have to be clearly defined, independent, and stable in their relationships 2.Precedence relationships must be specified and networked together 3.Time estimates tend to be subjective and are subject to fudging by managers 4.There is an inherent danger of too much emphasis being placed on the longest, or critical, path Limitations of PERT/CPM

100. 3 - 100© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Project Management Software  There are several popular packages for managing projects  Primavera  MacProject  Pertmaster  VisiSchedule  Time Line  Microsoft Project

101. 3 - 101© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Using Microsoft Project Program 3.1

102. 3 - 102© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Using Microsoft Project Program 3.2

103. 3 - 103© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Using Microsoft Project Program 3.3

104. 3 - 104© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America.