1. NOAA's Space Weather Program Contributions to NSWP December 12, 2005 Presented to NSWP Assessment Team

2. NOAA’s Space Weather Program One of 45 Programs in NOAA Charter Established, 2005 Mission Requirements 1.Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment 2.Provide timely and accurate space weather, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena 3.Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space wather data 4.Understand the processes that influence space weather develop applications for the user community 5.Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather needs

3. 5 41 3 2 NOAA’s relationship to National Program

4. Terrestrial Weather Coasts Oceans Space Weather Fresh Water Soil Moisture Estuaries Air Quality Atmosphere Snow Pack Environmental Services Includes all observing systems required to support NOAA's mission (NOAA and non-NOAA data sources) Space weather observations are integrated into NOSA NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA) NOAA is focused on building “an integrated global environmental observation and data management system”— an Earth observation system that is comprehensive and sustained. Design observing systems that support NOAA's mission and provide maximum value.

5. Monitor, Measure and Specify Data for Today’s Space Weather NOAA POES NOAA GOES NASA ACE NASA SOHO L1 ACE (NASA) –Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles –Magnetic field strength and direction SOHO (NASA) –Solar EUV Images –Solar Corona (CMEs) GOES (NOAA) –Energetic Particles –Magnetic Field –Solar X-ray Flux –Solar X-Ray Images POES (NOAA) –High Energy Particles –Total Energy Deposition –Solar UV Flux Ground Sites –Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) –Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) –SOON Sites (USAF) –RSTN (USAF) –Telescopes and Magnetographs –Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) –GPS (CORS)

6. Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV Lower energy electrons and protons begin on GOES N Heavy Ions begin on GOES R Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array Solar EUV Sensor (EUVS) – first on GOES N Monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in five bands between 10 and 125 nm Coronagraph (SCOR) –GOES R ?? Pre-Planned Product Improvement (not yet manifested) GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan) (Launch: 4/25/97, Operational) GOES 11(Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage) GOES 12(Launch: 7/23/01, Operational) GOES N0P(Launch GOES N early 2006) GOES RSeries starts 2012 GOES 10 SXI: NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership

7. Polar Observations (POES, METOP, NPOESS) POES and METOP –Total Energy Detector (TED) 50 eV to 20 KeV electrons and ions Total energy deposition into atmosphere –Medium Energy Proton And Electron Detector (MEPED) Electrons from 30 KeV to 2.5 MeV Ions from 30 KeV to 6.9 MeV Protons 16 MeV to >140 MeV –Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV 2 or GOME on METOP) Primarily an ozone sensor Monitors solar irradiance from 140 to 340 nm NPOESS –HEPS,MEPS, LEPS Particle sensors similar to TED and MEPED –Thermal Plasma Sensor Electric fields and plasma temperatures similar to DMSP SSIES –AURORA UV airglow sensor Similar to DMSP SSUSI –Total Solar and Spectral Irradiance Sensor similar to NASA SORCE TIM and SIM Operational Satellites NOAA14 (marginal SEM, marginal SBUV) NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV) NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV) NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV) NOAA-18 (working SEM, working SBUV) NOAA-N’ (2008) METOP-1 (2006) European Collaboration METOP-2 (2010) European Collaboration NPOESS (2013?)

8. Examples of Ground-Based Observations used in Space Weather Operations Solar –AF SEON, NSO SOLIS, HAO Mauna Loa, NJIT Big Bear, Stanford Wilcox, Mt. Wilson, Penticton radio F10.7, NSO GONG Cosmic Rays –Thule and McMurdo Neutron Monitor Ionosphere –AF DISS Network and other globally distributed ionosondes –NOAA CORS and other global GPS networks Magnetic Field –USGS and Intermagnet Magnetometers Energetic particle precipitation –Thule RIOmeter Mt. Wilson Solar Magnetogram Mauna Loa H-alpha USGS Magnetometer Real-time ionospheric electron density using CORS

9. Near the Earth and under the radiation belts - Shuttle and ISS ops: EVA scheduling, and occasional “sheltering”. Knowledge of current SWx situation required. In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhances exploration. Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions. Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq The Future: Observations are needed for Space Exploration

10. Core Space Science Research Living With a Star NASA Targeted Space Weather Research NSF/AF/ONR/NOAA Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling NSF Multi-University Research Initiatives AF/ONR Space Weather Research Community DoDSEC Rapid Prototyping Centers Verification Documentation DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations CCMC Model Access Validation Metrics Space Weather Model Development

11. Wang, Sheeley, Arge Solar Wind Model (Arge / NOAA CIRES) Research to Operations: Testbed Products Shue et al. Magnetopause Model (Detman / SEC) POES Polar Cap Solar Protons (Evans, Greer / SEC) CISM Ap Forecast Model (Weigel, Gehmeyr et al. / CU) Weimer Magnetic Disturbance Model (Weimer / MRC) Polar Cap HF Propagation Model (Sauer / NGDC, Fuller-Rowell / NOAA CIRES)

12. Concept and Initiation –Be user focused (target highest priority needs) –Consider many sources of potential transition candidates Within and external to SEC (CISM, CCMC, USAF, commercial, etc.) –Rank transition candidates against these factors: Strategic Importance, Operational Significance, Implementation Readiness –Have commitment of SEC Management in SEC AOP Planning and Implementation –Employ appropriate level of project management principles –Use iterative development and validation –Generate routine experimental products in an operational-like (systems and data) test bed environment SEC Product Development and Transition Process

13. Approval and Delivery –Track and sign off critical internal transition steps Documentation, software CM, support procedures, training, etc. –Release as a NWS test product for external review –Finalize product and get SEC and NWS approval –Advertise new product in appropriately WWW, announcements, publications, meetings, etc. Maintain and Assess for Continual Improvement –Establish appropriate performance metrics –Track product performance through ongoing verification –Explore product enhancements or replacement as technology evolves or new opportunities occur SEC Product Development and Transition Process

14. Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes: Space environment effects Impacts on economy, health, and safety Information for decision makers Relevant research Service enhancements Vendor meetings Interagency coordination International Space Environment Services meetings April 5 - 8, 2005 http://sec.noaa.gov/sww

15. A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA space weather services today: U.S. power grid infrastructure Commercial airline industry Dep. of Transportation ( GPS) NASA human space flight activities Satellite launch and operations DoD Operations DOE Nuclear Reg Comm Schlumberger NY/PJM Grid Ball Loral NESDIS/SOCC Digital Globe Boeing Lockheed Aerospace Echostar NASA Space Command ISS Astronauts FAA American United Airlines Northwest Continental Growth of Space Weather Customers NOAA Space Environment Center Sunspot Cycles Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation

16. TOKYO OSAKA HONG KONG SHANGHAI CHICAGO NEW YORK 82 N #1 #1A #2 #3 #4 UAL POLAR ROUTES BEIJING Source: M. Stills, UAL

17. The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997) Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23

18. Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month. –~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products –more than 250,000 unique customers per month –customers from 150 countries NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite. A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) – 140,000 unique users monthly Five million POES file transfers per month (web only) – 185,000 unique users monthly – 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum! Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer Summary

19. NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups… NOAA/SEC Radiation Alert/Warning NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group NASA Mission Control NASA Management Flight Control Biomedical Engineers Surgeon ESA (Europe) Mission Control NASDA (Japan) Mission Control CSA (Canada) Mission Control RSA (Russia) Mission Control Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems Lockheed Martin Management Service Begins

20. ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users: Japan U.S. Government.com (commercial) United Kingdom Education.net (commercial) Germany Russia Australia Belgium 46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site: 35 updating Plots, 8 real-time lists 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials" Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month.

21. Loss of Solar Wind Data Impact: Loss of service includes: ending many geomagnetic storm warning services and a significant decline in accuracy and timing for the remaining geomagnetic storm forecast products; loss of key data input to 16 space weather models in operations or in development; and loss of key data for vendor services. Critical solar wind data used by NOAA is broadcast from the ACE NASA research satellite ACE has long passed its expected 5 year life time There is no backup system (that meets requirements) to replace ACE when it fails NOAA’s broad area announcement is refining best cost and schedule options for replacement including: - collaborative data purchase - lowest cost government satellite - lowest cost Triana/DSCVR refurbishment Extended Mission Nominal Mission 1996 200020082004 2012 2016 ACE No Solar Wind Measurements ACE – Solar Wind Monitoring Loss of NOAA’s Ability to Issue Warnings of Geomagnetic Storms Issue #1: NASA will end ACE program (NASA’s research mission accomplished; however, ACE has fuel reserve to last to ~2015). Solutions: Extend ACE solar wind monitoring by: ● NASA transfers ACE program to NOAA ● NOAA funds NASA to continue ACE program Issue #2: ACE fails Solutions: NOAA establishes monitoring by: ● Data buy or satellite program (start ~2010) ● Relying on non-U.S. source (e.g., KuaFu mission - proposed Chinese space weather satellite with a launch date ~2012)

22. Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six

23. P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes: Did a CME occur? Will the CME hit the Earth, thus causing a geomagnetic storm? When will the storm begin? - 1 to 3 days warning How strong will the storm be? How long will the storm last? Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003 NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms

24. NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an absolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations NOAA/SEC Data (Primarily Satellite) - Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations >80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data STRATCOM USAF Air Force Weather Agency Joint Space Ops Center Missile Defense Agency Space Command U.S. Northern Command and NORAD Army and Navy Operations National Reconnaissance Office National Security Impacts

26. Impact Area Geomagnetic and Radiation Storm Predictions Customer (examples)Action (examples)Cost (examples) Spacecraft (Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects) Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD - Postpone launch - In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft Loss of s/c can exceed $500M Commercial loss exceeds $1B Worst case storm - $100B Electric Power (Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company Many mitigating actions: - adjust/reduce system load - disconnect components, - postpone maintenance. -Estimated loss per year ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms - $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout) Airlines (Communications) (Loss of flight HF radio communications) United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc. Divert polar flights, change flight plans Change altitude Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight $10-50k for re-routes Airlines (Radiation) (Radiation dose on crew and passengers) United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc. Divert polar flights, change flight plans Change altitude (even at mid-latitudes) - Cost ~$100k per diverted flight - Health risks Surveying & Navigation (Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted) FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc. Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs Vendor Industry (Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid) Northwest Research Assoc., INC Solar Terrestrial Dispatch Metatech Corp. Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms Out of business without solar wind data! Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Weather Products

27. Solar Wind Monitor Impact of ACE Failure on Space Weather Services Only known method of producing accurate warnings of geomagnetic storms with ~1 hour lead time –> 90 % reliability of predicting major storms Complete loss of short term geomagnetic storm warnings –5 classes of products lost (Impulse, K4, K5, K6, >K7) Impact on other geomagnetic storm watches Impact on radiation storm products Customer Impacts –Only source of reliable short term warnings disappears –Commerce impacted: Electric Power, Radio Communication including airlines, Pipelines, Vendor Industry –U.S. Space Program and Federal Agencies Impacted NASA, FAA, NRA –International commerce impacted, same effects world- wide

28. National Research Council Report www.nap.edu DoD and NOAA should be the lead agencies in acquiring all the data sets needed for accurate specification and forecast modeling… Solar Wind Monitor NASA’s ACE satellite at L1 Beyond design lifetime (1997-2002) NASA currently funds through 2005 Solar Wind monitor follow-on planning underway in NOAA and partnerships are being explored ACE Satellite At L1

29. Commercial Aviation: Now and Future Polar Routes Open late 1990s late 1990s (UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day) Develop New Products Existing NWS Structure WAFS/ICAO Joint Planning & DevelopmentOffice Next Generation Air Transportation System Triple the Capacity of Airspace Aircraft Fly Higher More Radiation and Navigation Issues Need more Space Weather Products and Services New Products in System Need more Space Weather Products and Services

30. Predicted Polar Route Capacity 2005 Est.200920142019 Capacity228,000384,000972,0001,768,000 Growth Rate 13.9%20.4%12.7% Source: Transport Canada Assumptions Report 2005-2019, September 2005, p. 60

31. SEC Observation Sources GOES POES ACE SOHO DISSDISS IMSIMS SCINDASCINDA SEONSEON SOONSOON