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Skinner, Sureka, Yan1
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S&P500 Sector Weighting Information Technology Largest Sector : 18.6% Telecommunication Services Smallest Sector: 3.0% Financials Second largest sector 15.1% Source: S&PSource: Seeking Alpha Skinner, Sureka, Yan2
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Sector Weighting Financials are underweighted by 610 BPs Skinner, Sureka, Yan3
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Various Industries in Sector Banks Consumer Finance Diversified Financial Services Insurance-Brokers Insurance-Life/Health Insurance-Multi–Line Insurance-Property/Casualty Multi-sector Hldgs Real Estate Investment Trusts Skinner, Sureka, Yan4
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Largest Companies by Market Cap American Express Bank of America Citigroup Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Chase Metlife Travelers Wells Fargo Skinner, Sureka, Yan5
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Current Holdings in Financials Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (HCBK) JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Visa Inc. (V) Skinner, Sureka, Yan6
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Financial Sector Layout Financial are in the mature phase.Cyclical in Nature Skinner, Sureka, Yan7
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Sector Performance Financial Sector Year to Date - 20.30% Quarter to Date -.93% S&P 500 Year to Date – 19.52% Quarter to Date – 2.13 Skinner, Sureka, Yan8
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Demand GDP Interest Rates Business Profitability Investor Confidence Investible Assets Skinner, Sureka, Yan9
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Supply Market Saturation Consolidation in industry since 1990s Government forced consolidation during financial crisis Consumer and commercial credit losses Future Government regulations Strict lending standards Skinner, Sureka, Yan10
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Sector Attractiveness High barriers to entry Well established brands Economies of scale Economies of scope Relationships Customer Loyalty Skinner, Sureka, Yan11
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Unattractiveness Intense Rivalry Substitute products Government Regulations on capital requirements and wages Lack of consumer confidence Highly cyclical Skinner, Sureka, Yan12
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Regression Analysis Skinner, Sureka, Yan13
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Skinner, Sureka, Yan17 Absolute BasisHighLowMedianCurrent P/Trailing E136.510.514.6136.5 P/Forward E21.610.612.720.8 P/B3.4.52.11.1 P/S3.7.62.51.4 P/CF47.17.210.324.8 EntValue/EBITDAn/a Relative to SP500HighLowMedianCurrent P/Trailing E7.8.51.757.6 P/Forward E1.4.53.751.3 P/B.9.3.7.5 P/S1.9.91.61.2 P/CF4.2.6.92.4 EntValue/EBITDAn/a
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Sector P/E P/E close to High end Relatively expensive but may vary by industry Skinner, Sureka, Yan18
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Ratios Across Sector Cheap: Regional Banks Expensive: Diversified financial services Insurance-life/health Skinner, Sureka, Yan19
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Market value lower than book value Regional banks drop the most Insurance is almost even Skinner, Sureka, Yan20
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P/S looks good so far Not the whole story Skinner, Sureka, Yan21
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Sector EBITDA Worse than S&P 500 No sign for a break Skinner, Sureka, Yan22
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Industries reflect the Big picture Skinner, Sureka, Yan23
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Recommendation Increase SIM Holdings by 400BPs But, still keep it underweight relative to S&P500 We are bullish for long run and bearish for short run Real Estate-Avoid; Regional Banks- trading at attractive multiples Regional Banks will benefit from long term growth Skinner, Sureka, Yan24
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