1. What’s Completion Got to Do With It?
Unpacking the Value of Student Short-Term Course-Taking
LearningWorks & RP Group Webinar | October 31, 2012

2. Session Outcomes
Recognize how student course-taking behaviors relate to completion and success
Understand how this analysis relates in a specific college context
Know about resources to support a course-taking analysis and discussions at your own institution
NOTE: Please ask questions throughout the presentation by typing into the chat window on the left
11:00-11:02 Kathy kicks off
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

3. The perfect storm of accountability and budget cuts
WHY THE FOCUS ON COMPLETION?
The perfect storm of accountability and budget cuts
10 minute segment
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

4. Student Success Act Places an emphasis on completion through:
Placed an emphasis on completion through:
Setting enrollment priorities around pathways that lead to degrees, certificates and transfer
Prioritizing structures that encourage students onto a completion pathway (e.g., educational plans, programs of study, basic skills, and mandatory assessment)
Creating a public scorecard that will bring completion to the forefront
11:02-11:04
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

5. The Budget Crisis
Colleges are reviewing data on what departments, programs and services to keep or cut.
Some are pre-emptively following the Task Force direction
We are getting public pressure to justify our resource allocation
Our existing data primarily focuses on measures like completion and retention—most colleges don’t have other success measures available
11:04-11:06
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

6. What Gets Lost in the Completion Discussion?
Not all of our students are seeking completion
Particularly in CTE, students may go get jobs without completing certificates
Our completion rates are not equitable
If we have to do more with less and completion is the measure, will our more vulnerable students be forced out?
The journey to completion is a very long one
We need to understand what happens along the way to figure out where to focus our resources
11:06-11:08
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

7. Share Your Story
Weigh in by clicking on checkbox icon in the window on the left and selecting yes or no: is your college using completion of degrees, certificates, or transfer to prioritize offerings?
11:08-11:10
What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

8. What student course-taking behaviors can tell us
How else can we understand success?
What student course-taking behaviors can tell us
30 minute segment
What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

9. Peter Bahr’s Cluster Analysis
165,921 first-time students who enrolled in at least one credit or noncredit community college course in fall 2001
Followed course-taking patters over 7 years
Did NOT use factors such as students’ race/ ethnicity, status as a credit/noncredit student or stated goal
11:10-11:12 – include a VERY high level overview of what cluster analysis is
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

10. Key Definitions Completion First Time Student Associate’s degree
Certificate
Transfer
First Time Student
Had not previously attended college
Were not co-enrolled in high school or a four-year institution
Accounted for 70% of students who entered system in fall 2001 and attempted four-fifths of units in
11:12-11:13
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

11. The Clusters Completion-Directed Pathways Non-Completion Pathways
Completion Likely (2 subgroups)
Completion Unlikely
CTE
Non-Completion Pathways
Skills-Builders
Noncredit
11:13-11:15 – Very quick overview, detail below
What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

12. Completion-Likely Continuum
Students Most Likely to Complete
Enroll full time, stay about 6 years
Attempt an average of 123 credits in transferrable courses
Pass 73% of courses and have high completion rates (68%)
Students Somewhat Likely to Complete
Enroll full time, stay about 4 years
Attempt 66 transferrable credits, but fewer math, physical & life sciences
Pass 73% of courses but have low completion rates (31%)
11:15-11:17
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

13. students take 65-125 units four to six years to complete and amass
Our successful
students take
four to six
years to complete and amass
units
11:17-11:18

14. Completion Directed Completion Unlikely
Enroll part time, attend intermittently, stay about 2 years
Attempt 16 transferrable credits, with more CTE
Pass 26% of courses and have very low completion rates (10%)
Career Technical Education Students
Enroll full time, stay about 5 years
Attempt 82 units in commercial services, engineering and industrial technologies, health fields and public and protective services
Pass 80% of courses but have low completion rates (35%)
11:18-11:20
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

15. more likely to African American,
Latino and Native American students are
more likely to
be in our
less-successful clusters
11:20-11:21

16. Non-Completion Pathways
Skills-Builder Students
Take one course a year for two years, on average
Attempt 7 credits in transferrable humanities and CTE, especially engineering and industrial technologies
Pass 94% of courses but have very low completion rates (9%)
Noncredit Students
Enroll in about three courses a year for five years
Take ESL, short-term vocational programs, health and safety education and programs for older adults
Course completion data missing
11:21-11:23
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

17. Comparison of Pass and Completion Rates Among Clusters
11:23-11:24
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

18. Statewide Averages Bahr found that averages varied by college
First-Time Student Types, Based on Head Count
Bahr found that averages varied by college
11:24-11:25 Ask the question first, then reveal the pie chart, then the caveat on variation by college
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

19. What About Those Non-Completers?
A preliminary analysis of UI wage data found wage increases for skills-builder students.
The CTE Employment Outcome survey found significant wage gains for non-completers (26% increase in hourly wage for non- completers; 39% for completers).
There are pathways through our colleges that we aren’t documenting or measuring.
11:25-11:27 tell the dirt pathways story
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

20. job training and may erroneously treat
Our current measures
don’t capture
job training and may erroneously treat
a third of our students
as failures
11:27-11:28

21. Bringing Bahr’s Analysis Home
You can download a summary of Bahr’s study from the RP Group or LearningWorks sites
You can download instructions to replicate this study locally, using a guide that also includes discussion questions
The RP Group is offering technical support on implementing the study
Bahr is conducting a detailed wage analysis for non-completers, including mapping common course-taking pathways—watch for results in spring 2013
11:28-11:30
What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

22. Share Your Story
Weigh in by clicking on checkbox icon in the window on the left and selecting yes or no: Is your college tracking wage outcomes as a way to measure success? Share by typing into the chat window on the left: How do you think changes your college is making to enrollment or course- scheduling will affect skills-builder and noncredit students?
11:30-11:35
What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

23. Applying Bahr’s Findings to Cabrillo College
From the state to the local
Applying Bahr’s Findings to Cabrillo College
Hand the baton to Rock-expected timeframe of 15 minutes (11:35-11:57)
What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

24. $1,000,000,000
2,700 hours

25. Stewardship

26. Completer/Leaver Survey
Started in 2000
Survey ~ 1 year after students either
Complete
complete a certificate or degree
Leave
have completed at least 10 units in a CTE program and don’t enroll the following year
Response rate ~50%

31. Completers vs Leavers
Who are the real winners?

32. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

33. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

34. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

35. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

36. Leavers Completers 9

37. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

38. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

39. Leavers Completers 9

40. 2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

41. Dental Hygiene Persistence – At what point do leavers leave?
Units Completed
Completer
Leaver
<=3 2
<=25 1
<=30
<=35
<=45
>45 34
Persistence – At what point do leavers leave?

42. Construction & Energy Management
Units Completed
Completer
Leaver
<=3
167
<=9
135
<=15 56
<=25 1 26
<=30 5 10
<=40 14 6
<=35
>45
<=45 2
68% leave after completing <= 9 units

43. Classroom Survey What are students’ intentions?
Motivation for taking the class?
Academic goal?
What would success look like?
All CTE classes first half of semester

44. What is your current academic goal?
Not really sure at this point
168 8%
Complete this course - no plans beyond that 64 3%
Complete a few courses but no plans beyond that 98 4%
Complete 1 or more skills certificates
202 9%
Complete a certificate of achievement
223
10%
Complete an associate degree
809
36%
Transfer to a 4-yr. school
637
29%
No Reponse 23 1%
2,224
1 to a few courses 7%
Certificate, degree or transfer 84%

45. What is the main reason you are taking this class?
For personal interest/self-enrichment
178 8%
Prepare for a career or a career in another field
1,199
54%
Acquire skills required in existing job
216
10%
Prepare for career advancement
378
17%
Other career related reasons 84 4%
Other 46 2%
To transfer
122 5%
2,223
84% Career Related

46. Construction & Energy Management Academic Goal
Not really sure at this point 14 7%
Complete this course - no plans beyond that 8 4%
Complete a few courses but no plans beyond that 21
11%
Complete 1 or more skills certificates 40
21%
Complete a certificate of achievement
Complete an associate degree 46
25%
Transfer to a 4-yr. school 37
20%
15% have a goal of taking no more than 1 to a few classes
68% leave after completing 9 or fewer units

47. What have we learned? Leavers are not losers We can do better
with 10 or more units
we may need to align our certificates with what the labor market says is good enough
We can do better
Large #s of students who desire certificates or degrees aren’t succeeding
Data is critical for effective stewardship

48. Find Out More
Summary of the Bahr Study & Implementation Guide
Terrence Willett, Course-taking Analysis Support
Kathy Booth, Statewide Success Conversations
Rock Pfotenhauer, Cabrillo’s Data Collection Efforts