1. Roll Out of 3G,4G & LTE Progress & Challenges By DR T.H. CHOWDARY Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies Fellow: Tata Consultancy Services Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India ) Former: Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited & Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh T: +91(40) 6667-1191(O) 2784-3121® F: +91 (40) 6667-1111 hanuman.chowdary@tcs.com Lecture @ BITS-Hyd : 7 th Dec 2012

2. Man in Search of Speed Running ( Marathon) Horse Bicycle Steam/ diesel /electric locomotives on rails Automobiles on roads Aeropelanes in the sky Rockets into space 2S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

3. Information Transport Post Office Telegraph/Telex Telephone Radio TV Internet Mobile phones Communications Satellites Optical Fiber Digitization, Packet switching, Routers, Compression, Encryption 3S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

4. Mobile Penetration in the Last Decade S681 _Dec'124 Source: Voice & Data, Sept 2011 and IT U World Telecoms/ KT Indicators Database * Estimates Per 100 Inhabitants THC_CTMS

5. Information traffic grows exponentially Globally the number of mobile internet users will surpass desktop users by 2015 Smart phones, social networking, video on demand, video streaming, e-education, e-books, mobile video conferencing BOYD (bring your own device) Push up information storage & transport 5S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

6. Generations of mobile systems 1G, 2G,3G, 4G and LTE (long term evolution) Digitisation Computer Switching ( Routers), MPLS ( multi protocol label switching ) Modems (analogue – 4kbps, 16 kbps) BB (Broadband), 64 k, 256k, 2MBPS, 8 MBPS, 100MBPS,(N GBPS) 6S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

7. Evolution for Data Access Year1997200020032003+2006 2008 2012 SystemGSMGPRSEDGE3G3.5G 4G Data Rate 9.61153842 MBPS4MBPS 8MBPS 100 MBPS GSM Evolution3GLTE EDGE - Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution LTE – Long Term evolution; GPRS: General Packet Radio Service GSM: Global Service Mobile S681 _Dec'127THC_CTMS

8. Spectrum Requirements 2G3GBWA 100MHZ60MHZ500MHZ 900 & 1800MHZ bands 2,100 MHZ band2,300MHZ band 8S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

9. Radio Spectrum- Bands & Frequency BandFrequency in GHZ BandFrequency in GHZ L1-2U40-60 S2-4V50-75 C4-8E60-90 X8-12W75-110 Ku12-18E90-140 Ka26.5-40D110-170 Q30-50 Infra Red – Light - Ultra Violet Below 1 GHZ : LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF, SHF 9S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

10. Limited Spectrum for Mobile Broadband Best mobile broadband (300 MHz-3.5 GHz) Bounces from the skyBounces inside rooms Penetrates buildings and terrain Reflects from buildings Follows Earth’s curvatureTravels in a straight line Fades in the rain 1 MHz10 MHz 100 MHz 1 GHz 10GHz 75 meters7.5 meters 0.75 meters 7.5 cm 75mm 10S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

11. LTE deployment Mid 2009 Telia Sonera in Norway and Sweden Sept 2010 Metro PCS –USA Dec 2010 Verizon –USA Nov 2010 Hong Kong: CSL Dec 2010 DoCoMo –Japan APril2011-SMART Philippine July 2011- SK Telecom -Korea, Telestra- Australia, SingTel-Singapore 3 Jan 12-South Korea -KT Jan 2012- 40 Networks in operation in 29 countries 229 commitments for deployment in 79 countries India augure in1 4 cities in MP and Chattisgarh in Q1-12 Currently there are 197 LTE enabled devices from 48 manufacturers MTNL in Delhi & Mumbai in Q1-2011 (MTNL & BSNL allotted 3G spectrum even before auction but they required to pay what the auction determined) 11S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

12. Reliance-Mukesh Ambani’s Infotel) Invests in 3/5 yrs $8 bln Constructs 100,000 RKM of O/F cable Phase-I Towers 7000 Traffic aggregators 3500 ach in Delhi & Mumbai based on FTT X technology Pan India BWA already invested $2.8 bln Subscription @ Rs. 800/1000 pm THC_CTMSS681 _Dec'1212

13. Google Fiber Project (to boost Internet speed) July 2012, Kensas City) High Speed & internet @ $ 120 pm 1 GPBS Internet B/W (100 times faster than current speed) 2 TB of DVR storage 1 TB of Google Drive Free Google News 7 Tablet Reliance Info promises ( 10 to 30) MBPS THC_CTMSS681 _Dec'1213

14. Tower Requirements India ‘s population density – 150 (Andaman); Delhi -1800 per sq. mile 1000 subscribers per tower One tower for 6 sq.miles to 18 towers per sq.mile MBPS per tower for 2G-40; for 4G-800 India has 4,50,000 towers Tenancy ratio required :2 to 3 per tower To reduce radiation to less than 1 wt per sq. mtr we need at least 25,000 more towers at a cost of Rs. 7,500 cr. Local bodies and property owners are becoming hungry wolves and clearances are costing huge monies 14S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

15. Back -haul 1.5 to 2 GBPS from each tower Terrestrial microwave is less expensive than Optical Fiber systems (digging and resurfacing costs are a source of unearned income for local bodies and highways) Both TDM and IP traffic require back-haul Encapsulation : Ethernet is cheaper than MPLS which is superior 15S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

16. Broadband wireless access (BWA) (1) The spectrum auction in June 2010 netted $ 8.4 bln (Rs. 40,000 Cr) (the 3G netted Rs. 68000 Cr) Target for broadband subscribers by 2014 – 100 mln Only Reliance Infotel has nation wide licence (cost $ 2.74 bln ) Aircel has a spectrum in 8 circles, Airtel and Qualcomm in 4 circles each; BSNL all over India LTE ready equipment vendors - Nokia Siemens networks, Huawei, Alcatel Lucent & ZTE WiMax is also LTE technology and some a re deploying it. FD, LTE & TDLTE 16S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

17. Broadband wireless access (BWA) (2) 132 operators in 56 countries are now investing in LTE 45 networks are in operation now Reliance uses LTE-TTD (time division duplex) Qualcom (which ha s licence in 4 circles) supplies equipment to every operator promotes TD-LTE in competition with WiMax Qualcom has multi mode chip sets which enable equal footing for services in 2G, 3G and BWA Aircel demonstrated high definition video streaming and three way video conferencing using inter-operable TD-LTE dongles Speed 110 mbps and low latency of 10-20 milli sec. 17S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

18. Monies raised through spectrum auction 3G – Rs. 68,000 Cr Broadband – Rs. 40,000 Cr Reliance Infotel (Mukhesh group) – 4G Spectrum in June 2010 @ Rs. 4,800 Cr Investment to be made Rs. 27,500 Cr Content creation : 15% to creator; 15% to aggregator; 70% to Telcos but Reliance Infotel will pass on 50% to Telcos and aggregator Content- video on demand, live video, mobile video conferencing, e-education(bought online tutoring company extra marks education pvt.), network 18 TV content, triple play ( voice, entertainment and education) Technology used: (TDD)- time division duplex- LTE will provide voice service through applications like Skype and Viber 18S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

19. Auctioning Spectrum is disastrous Gamblers instinct First mobile service licences were auctioned Fantastic “upfront paid “ bids led to near death of Telcos Telcso migrated to revenues share in 1999 Right thing to do - invite bids for revenue share and not for spectrum price DOT/government has stake in Telcos wellbeing DOT/gov take equity in Telcos to control Money made is squandered on “Feed and breed” welfare programs About 30% of what users pay and tax on profits go to government Telecom R&D, and indigenous manufacturing languishing Defense, security, infrastructure are starved 19S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

20. Should Spectrum be Priced? Like air it is an inexhaustible resource, which can be used again and again all the while Infrared, ultra violet, x-ray….. Solar power Sun’s light rays spectrum is not sold The product that is electricity is sold Devices convert sunlight to electricity are sold and taxed. So only products and services derived from spectrum should be sold. Take Nitrogen from air and produce fertilizer what do you sell /tax? 20S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

21. Industry Woes (1) Telco Revenues @ Rs. 1.5/2 Tln. Telco Investments of = Rs. 3 Tln Telcos debt Rs.3 Tln Debt of Telcos to Banks Rs. 1,00,000cr (R-Com = Rs. 35,000 cr) Profits are declining ARPUs lowest in the world Hyper competition – Services customers – Sickness for companies DOT/TRAI-function? Raising Revenues for government or Reaching service upto aam admi Return on capital employed <6.5% S681 _Dec'1221THC_CTMS

22. Industry Woes (2) No company has declared a dividend in the last 18 years Share prices’ performance below BSE index Banks not enthused to finance 2G spectrum purchases. A Kotak Investment Study finds need for “Viability Gap Funding” by government ? S681 _Dec'1222THC_CTMS

23. Perverse views of DOT/TRAI Asking internet service providers (ISPs) for revenue share. Asking tower companies to pay revenue share and take a licence Asking cell companies to pay spectrum charge determined by 2012 2G auctions for the remaining period of the licence of P-telcos 2014/15. (Electricity transmission towers and distribution poles do not require a licence nor do they pay anything to any body.) Withholding VOIP for the last 10 years an d now saying OK Not allowing 3 G roaming between different company networks (no single company got 3Glicence for the entire country – Airtel- 13; Idea-11; Vodafone-9; BSNL-everywhere ) Suggesting reforming of 2 G networks from 800 MHZ to 800/900 MHZ bands 23S681 _Dec'12THC_CTMS

24. Thank You: Dhanyawad S681 _Dec'1224THC_CTMS