1. The Decline of the UUP?: an electoral analysis

2. Main Research Questions
What individual characteristics (background, attitudinal) best predict support for the UUP in the Assembly Elections of 2001 [NI Election Study]
What aggregate characteristics (census, electoral, Orange) best predict support for the UUP in District Council elections, [Ecological Regression]
Is there an 'Orange vote' and which party benefits [Ecological Regression]

7. Attitudes to Integration

8. The Importance of Ideology over Class

10. Moderate Republicans

11. Anti-UK Govt/Anti-Labour

12. Anti-Establishment

13. Respectful Young Integrationists

14. Influential Male Cynics

15. Dissatisfied Social Services

16. 2001 Election Study Findings (Protestants)
Self-Identified Protestants participate at same level as Catholics
Age by far the strongest predictor of UUP vote, esp vs cohorts
Education level more important than income or class for a pro-UUP vote
Anti-Establishment feeling very important for anti-UUP vote

17. Survey Summary
Factors associated with a deferential, traditional political culture play a central role in UUP support
De-traditionalisation and cohort replacement will make UUP resurgence more difficult
Liberal ('civic unionist') support is important, but this cannot compensate for loss of traditional UUP base

18. Age and the Ulster Unionist Council: the Orange Order Leadership vs
Age and the Ulster Unionist Council: the Orange Order Leadership vs. UUC Orange members
48% of Orange officebearers are under 40 while just a quarter of Orange UUC members are under 45
29% of Orange officebearers over 50, while 66% of UUC Orange members were over 55
UUC is far more elite in terms of social status (wealth, education) than the Order or the Unionist Community

19. UUP share of Protestant vote at District Council level

22. Church of Ireland % of Protestants, 1991 (by DC)

23. Orange Order Lodges & Density 1991

24. Orange Order Density 1991

28. Determinants of UUP Constituencies, 1993-2001 (by z score)

29. Predictors of UUP vote, 1993-2001 (with Orange density), N = 165

30. The Role of Context
Areas of High Protestant Unemployment are likely to be young and anti-Elite in attitude
Church of Ireland and Orange counties and councils may be more deferential for historical reasons (these forces may once have shaped local political cultures) Less clear that they do so today.

31. Conclusion
Importance of 'traditional' vs 'modern' divide (i.e. Older Generation, Church of Ireland, Respect for Institutions and leaders)
'Civic Unionist' segment exists in metropolitan Belfast but does not counterbalance de-traditionalisation in UUP/DUP voting calculus

32. Traditionalists (Orange & Other), Co. Tyrone

33. Orange Skeptics & Liberal Civics (East Belfast)

34. Non-Orange Skeptics: Protestant Working-Class Area,
Co. Armagh

35. http://www.kpdata.com/epk/index.html (Follow link 1)
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38. Findings: Individual
Orange and MLA status are the most important individual characteristics
Rural, Gender, Title, Education and Status unimportant
Age may be important

39. Findings: Contextual
Contextual factors explain most of the variance (party section, geography of residence)
Sectional splits and Geographic splits within the Orange Order are critical
Big difference between UUC delegates who happen to be Orange and those who represent the Orange

40. Conclusion Implications of breaking UUC-Orange link
'Orange skeptics' vs. 'rational civics' idea needs to be contextualised to official Orangeism - esp. in Belfast & Antrim
Importance of 'traditional' vs 'modern' divide (i.e. West Bann Orangemen, respectable working-class constituencies)

41. Differences in Stance within the Orange UUC

42. Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics
Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement Unionism

43. Main Research Questions
What is the social profile of the UUC and how does this differ from that of the Orange Order and the Unionist community as a whole
Which factors best predict support for the Good Friday Agreement within the UUC?
What are the characteristics of pro-UUP constituencies, [time permitting]

44. UUC Social Profile: Previous Survey Research
Late 2000 Survey of UUC (Tonge & Evans 2001; 2002). 1/3 response rate
Social Profile in terms of age, education, gender, income, occupation, county of residence
Showed that roughly half the UUC were Orange members

45. Research Strategy We add contextual factors to the analysis
Party List (gender, title, postcode, section)
Strategists assign vote (pro/anti-GFA)
MOSAIC classifications assigned to party members
NI MOSAIC score 1-27 (status), (rural)
MOSAIC group and score used in multi-level and fixed-effects logistic regressions

46. The Social Profile of the UUC and Orange Order
by MOSAIC Classification (99% sample)
% Top 12
Rural 8
Bottom 7
Nonrural Top 12
Nonrural Bottom 7 N
Freemason officebearers
67.8%
15.5%
8.0%
80.2%
9.4%
766
Orange bloc UUC delegates
45.7%
36.2%
12.4%
71.6%
19.4%
105
UUC delegates total
44.3%
35.9%
8.4%
69.0%
13.1%
879
Grand Orange Lodge officebearers
34.7%
44.4%
9.7%
62.5%
17.5%
144
Northern Ireland population average
32.5%
18.1%
22.9%
39.6%
27.9%
1.6m
Orange Order (lodge) officebearers
32.4%
43.9%
57.7%
22.1%
1429

47. Occupation: Orange Order versus Orange UUC Delegates

48. Age: Orange Order Leadership vs. the Orange UUC
48% of Orange officebearers are under 40 while just a quarter of Orange UUC members are under 45
29% of Orange officebearers over 50, while 66% of UUC Orange members were over 55

49. The Regional Base of the UUC

50. Findings: Social Profile
Major status difference between Orange leadership/membership and Orange UUC delegates
UUC profile is elderly and elite
Explains why Protestant alienation from the UUP may be greater than from the Orange
Explains why many Orange leaders and a majority of the membership wish to break the link with the UUC while Orange UUC delegates do not

51. GFA Voting Dynamics: Previous Survey Research
Orange Order membership and age were clearly important (p < .001)
Much unexplained: R2 = .1 predicting 1998 vote and .03 in predicting 'Vote Today'
Concluded that division lay between 'Orange skeptics' and 'rational civics'

52. Support for the Agreement by UUP Constituency Association, c. 2002

53. UUC Constituency Profile: Rural

54. UUC Constituency Profile: Status

55. Table 2: UUC Social Profile (Party Section), by MOSAIC Classification (99% sample)
% Top 12
% Rural
% Bottom 7
% Nonrural Top 12
% Nonrural Bottom 7 N
East Belfast
81.6%
0.0 %
0.0% 38
North Down
74.3%
5.7%
11.4%
78.8%
12.1% 34
South Antrim
63.8%
23.4%
6.4%
83.3%
8.3% 47
MLAs
60.0%
28.0%
8.0%
11.1% 25
Strangford
59.6%
21.3%
10.6%
75.7%
13.5%
UUC total
44.3%
35.9%
8.4%
69.0%
13.1%
879

56. Orange/Non-Orange Differential in Support for the Agreement

57. Orange/Non-Orange Differential in Support for the Agreement