1. U.S. East Coast Sea Level Acceleration: Recent Evidence from Tide Gauges John Boon Virginia Institute of Marine Science Gloucester Point, Virginia 23062

2. Sea Level Trends: GMSL vs. RMSL

3. 1952 New York (The Battery), NY 1893-2011 (N = 119 yrs) Trend Estimate: 2.97 ± 0.09 mm/yr Linear Trend: Trend estimate from a fitted mmsl* time series of fixed length N * monthly mean sea level (seasonal cycle removed)

4. Serial Trends: Trend estimates from fitted series of fixed-length n < N ordered in time 1952 New York (The Battery), NY 1893-2011 (N = 119 yrs) Trend Estimate: 2.97 ± 0.09 mm/yr * monthly mean sea level (seasonal cycle removed)

5. Sea Level Trends: GMSL vs. RMSL (n=10 years)

6. Serial Trends: Trend Estimates from Fixed-length Series Ordered in Time > 78 years

7. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) 1933-2011 mmsl x 8 stations for varying values of n

8. Serial Trends: PCA

12. 60-year oscillation? ( Chambers, Merrifield, and Nerem GRL 2012)

15. Constant Acceleration over 1969-2011? (relative sea level rise rate)

16. Boston, MA F = 89.67 ** Norfolk, VA F = 15.37 ** Charleston, SC F = 0.01 ns Critical Value: F = 6.69 99% confidence level

17. The 2011 La Niña: So strong the oceans fell Boening et al., GRL 2012 95% Confidence Bands about individual mmsl heights

18. Acceleration: 0.300 mm/yr 2 Linear Rate: 2.88 mm/yr

19. Acceleration: 0.186 mm/yr 2 Linear Rate: 5.00 mm/yr

20. 20 years not sufficient!

22. 2050 2.07 ft 2100 5.85 ft 1.53 ft U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Sea Level Calculator

23. Sea Level Acceleration U.S.-Canadian Atlantic Coast Tide Stations RSL rise rate history informs serial trends PCA identifies 60-year cycle in addition to Period of near-constant acceleration that began about 1987 as evident from serial trends Acceleration strongest in NE and progressively weaker toward Chesapeake Bay region Expect mmsl 0.8 to 0.9 m above 1983-2001 MSL by 2050 between Norfolk and Boston.. If acceleration remains constant