1. Alan F. Blumberg and Nickitas Georgas Davidson Laboratory August 22 -23, 2013

2. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents Water Level Salinity Temperature Waves

3. 3D Circulation Model (ECOM/POM-derived): Boussinesq, Hydrostatic, Primitive Equation, Sigma Coordinate Model Mode Splitting: 10 external/internal steps, Δt e =1sec. Smagorinksy lateral diffusion: HORCON=0.01, Prandtl Number=1000! Mellor-Yamada 2.5-Kl vertical closure: UMOL=10 -6 m 2 /s. Bottom stress: C Dmin =3x10 -3, z 0 =10 -3 m, everywhere! *Modified by dynamic wave boundary layer (Grant-Madsen)! Surface Wind Stress: Large and Pond 1982. Barometric Pressure Gradient forcing: Switched off. 2D Surface Heat Fluxes: Ahsan and Blumberg, QUAL-2E-type. *Modified for 10m winds, generalized for UTC or local time coordinate. Robust, explicit, wetting and drying. Dynamically Coupled, Surface Wind Wave Model (GLERL-derived): Empirical Wave Momentum Model, JONSWAP spectrum. Wind-wave growth equation: γ=2.8%, C Ds =0.7x10 -3,,z 0w =σ/5. Incl. Bottom dissipation: f w =0.04 Incl. Depth-induced breaking: γ B =0.8261 (Longuet-Higgins and Fenton, 1974). *Dynamic depth from circulation model. Incl. Offshore wave boundary condition. Adopted new dispersion eqn. for shallows. Included and validated Thin Dams (obstruction grids). Standardized, CF-protocol-compliant, NetCDF Outputs. sECOM Hydrodynamic Model. NYHOPS App.

4. Bathymetry: Over 1M soundings! Resolution: 4km -> 25m DE NJ CT RI NY NYC NYHOPS Forecast Model _ it is all about realism! 3D General Circulation Model dynamically coupled with Surface Wind-Wave model Input forcing: (O): Observed (F): Forecasted (H): Historic Tides (O+F) NOS Offshore Surge and Steric (O+F) NOS Offshore Waves (O+F) Surface Winds (O+F) NAM 12km Heating and Cooling (O+F) 239 Rivers and Streams (O+F) NERFC 280 Major Dischargers (H) River Ice (O+F) Output: hindcasts+forecasts 4x/day Results every 10min, since 2006.  Total water level.  3D Currents, Salinity, Temperature.  Significant wave height and wave period. Colored DOM and light absorption. + 1967 + Real time Observations External data and models Distributed Inflows and Effluents

5. A fully automated system of systems New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System 0.5 hrs + 1.5 hrs + 2.0 hrs

6. Validation Every model has errors. Validation tells us that they are sufficiently small. Adopted NOAA/NOS Model Evaluation Software (DB-MEE). 2 years of recent in situ data: 2007-2009; 6+ years of real-time experience Over 100 local stations (Georgas and Blumberg ‘10, DiLiberto et al ’11, etc.) T/S vertical transect profiles from gliders (Georgas and Blumberg ‘08) Satellite SST comparisons (Bhushan ‘09, Bhushan, Blumberg, Georgas ‘10) HF-radar (Gopalakrishnan ‘11) and surface drifters (Blumberg et al, forthcoming).

7. Marine Search and Rescue (SAR) Missions………… NY/NJ Harbor Commercial Pilots & Schedulers (Harbor Pilots Associations, Marine Transportation)…………… Recreational Boaters (Regattas, Kayaks,…)……………….. Coastal Flooding Responders (PD, FEMA, NWS)…… Scientists/Engineers…… NYHOPS supports: New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System

8. Sandy surge Post-Sandy Nor’easter 1 Totals for Sandy’s forecast period: 30,334 unique hits. The NYHOPS/SSWS forecast water elevation (posted Saturday at 6am): -Along coast of NJ/NY and all of the Hudson River were within 5%, -the Battery, NY was low by 20%, -Long Island Sound was low by 10%

9. Conclusions NYHOPS established as an urban ocean forecast system – large following – extensive validation MARACOOS assets a blessing – hf radar, drifters, gliders and “met forcing” Need more robust assimilation – bring in mobile sensors, including truncated fisheries data Need better offshore boundary forcing Study wave and wave-driven set-up modeling Faster code… offsite mirroring… online data store Thank you NWS & NCEP & NOS– great operational products Links needed to National Hurricane Center collection of hurricane models; Include infrastructure ensembles/probabilistic forecasts;

10. Thank You! ablumberg@stevens.edu