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Economic Outlook: Debt, Inflation & Political Unrest’s Impact on Deal Markets March 17, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Outlook: Debt, Inflation & Political Unrest’s Impact on Deal Markets March 17, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Outlook: Debt, Inflation & Political Unrest’s Impact on Deal Markets March 17, 2011

2 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 2 of 17 2011 Economic/Credit Market Outlook March 17, 2011 Jim DeMasi, CFA Fixed Income Research & Strategy Group Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated. Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC

3 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 3 of 17 2011 Outlook Overview  Economy: Moderate growth should continue, though “escape velocity” may remain elusive.  Interest Rates: Steep curve/low rate environment likely to persist as the Fed maintains highly accommodative monetary policy.  Credit Markets: Ample liquidity should continue to foster favorable conditions for debt issuers, while bank underwriting standards gradually ease.

4 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 4 of 17 Economic Outlook

5 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 5 of 17 Recovery progressing, but not yet firing on all cylinders Consumer Spending Business Investment Residential Construction International Trade

6 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 6 of 17 Severe recession followed by tepid recovery  The economy is slowly repairing the damage from the steep 2008/2009 downturn.  However, growth to date has been too slow to significantly reduce the unemployment rate or reverse the downward trend in core inflation.  Global events threaten to further delay the onset of a self-sustaining recovery.

7 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 7 of 17 Three factors supporting near-term growth  The release of pent-up demand for durable goods is spurring a strong rebound in consumer spending.  The double-digit growth rate in business investment should continue in 2011, as enhancing productivity remains a key corporate priority.  Monetary (QE2) and fiscal policies should continue to provide significant short- term stimulus.

8 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 8 of 17 FOMC’s Objectives Prevent deflation by raising inflation expectations. Prevent deflation by raising inflation expectations. Maintain low real interest rates to stimulate loan demand. Maintain low real interest rates to stimulate loan demand. Bolster household net worth to increase spending. Bolster household net worth to increase spending. Promote favorable financial conditions to support stronger economic and job growth. Promote favorable financial conditions to support stronger economic and job growth. QE2 meeting most of Fed’s objectives

9 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 9 of 17 Three formidable headwinds to stronger growth  Debt repayment and savings accumulation are diverting funds away from consumption.  Massive inventory overhang continues to weigh on housing market.  Retrenchment at the state and local government level and rising commodity prices are mitigating federal stimulus.

10 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 10 of 17 Incremental improvement rather than robust growth  Downside Risks:  Geopolitical (Euro debt crisis; Middle East unrest, Japan)  Rising food and energy prices  Substantial (>10%) decline in national home price indices  Upside Possibilities:  Moderation in commodity prices  Export growth/narrower trade deficit  Decline in personal savings rate

11 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 11 of 17 Interest Rate Forecast

12 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 12 of 17 Macro environment points to trading range in Treasuries  Combination of moderate growth, low inflation, and high unemployment likely to keep the Fed on hold until at least the first quarter of 2012.  Short-term Treasury yields/LIBOR rates should remain well anchored until Fed signals a shift in policy.  Upward adjustment of “real” interest rates once QE ends should take longer-term yields toward top of 2009 – 2010 trading range.

13 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 13 of 17 Projecting moderate upward drift in yields  Downside Risks to Yields:  Flight to quality  Extension/expansion of QE  Weaker-than-expected economic growth  Upside Risks to Yields:  Substantial outflows from bond funds  Sharp upturn in core inflation  Early termination of QE2

14 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 14 of 17 Credit Market Outlook

15 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 15 of 17 Credit spreads reverting to pre-crisis averages *Averages were calculated for the 10-year period from June ’97 to January ’07.

16 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 16 of 17 Fixed Income Total Returns

17 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 17 of 17 Slow healing process in banking sector  Bank lending has lagged the progress in the public debt markets.  C&I lending appears to have reached a positive turning point, while CRE loan portfolios continue to contract.  Bank balance sheet fundamentals continue to gradually improve, though regulatory environment remains difficult and risk aversion continues to be high.

18 Refer to page 17 of this report for Stifel Nicolaus Fixed Income Capital Markets disclosures and analyst certifications. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated Member NYSE / SIPC 18 of 17 Additional information is available upon request. For Distribution to Institutional Investors Only. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated makes a market in the aforementioned securities as at the date of issuance of this research report noted at the top of page 1 of this report. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated has managed or co-managed a public debt offering for FannieMae, Freddie Mac, the FHLB and/or the FCCB within the past 12 months. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated has received compensation in the past twelve months, or expects to receive compensation in the next three months, for investment banking services from one or more of the borrowers mentioned in this report. The Fixed Income Capital Markets trading area of Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Incorporated owns debt securities of the borrower or borrowers mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed reliable but is not guaranteed by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data, nor is it to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities referred to herein. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of investors. Employees of Stifel Nicolaus or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed within. No investments or services mentioned are available to “private customers” in the European Economic Area or to anyone in Canada other than a “Designated Institution”. Stifel Nicolaus and/or its employees involved in the preparation or the issuance of this communication may have positions in the securities or options of the issuer/s discussed or recommended herein. Securities identified herein are subject to availability and changes in price. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. is a multi-disciplined financial services firm that regularly seeks investment banking assignments and compensation from issuers for services including, but not limited to, acting as an underwriter in an offering or financial advisor in a merger or acquisition, or serving as a placement agent in private transactions. Moreover, Stifel Nicolaus and its affiliates and their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees, may from time to time have long or short positions in such securities or in options or other derivative instruments based thereon. Readers of this report should assume that Stifel Nicolaus or one of its affiliates is seeking or will seek investment banking and/or other business relationships with the issuer or issuers, or borrower or borrowers, mentioned in this report. Stifel Nicolaus’ Fixed Income Capital Markets research and strategy analysts (“FICM Analysts”) are not compensated directly or indirectly based on specific investment banking services transactions with the borrower or borrowers mentioned in this report or on FICM Analyst specific recommendations or views (whether or not contained in this or any other Stifel Nicolaus report), nor are FICM Analysts supervised by Stifel Nicolaus investment banking personnel; FICM Analysts receive compensation, however, based on the profitability of both Stifel Nicolaus (which includes investment banking) and Stifel Nicolaus’ Fixed Income Capital Markets. The views, if any, expressed by FICM Analysts herein accurately reflect their personal professional views about subject securities and borrowers. For additional information on investment risks (including, but not limited to, market risks, credit ratings and specific securities provisions), contact your Stifel Nicolaus financial advisor or salesperson. I, Jim DeMasi, certify that the views expressed in this presentation accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this presentation. © 2011 Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, One South Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. All rights reserved. Fixed Income Capital Markets Disclosures

19 Upcoming ACG Events March 21 - 23, 2011 ACG InterGrowth | San Diego, CA April 21, 2011 Ronald J. Naples | Quaker Chemical Company May 10, 2011 Member Only Wine Tasting & Networking Event May 19, 2011 Annual Middle Market Lenders Panel June 2, 2011 Corporate Development Dinner Roundtable Event June 16, 2011 Leading With Cash: Cash Flow for Corporate Renewal


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