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Economic Outlook March 2012 Economic Policy Division.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Outlook March 2012 Economic Policy Division."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Outlook March 2012 Economic Policy Division

2 Real GDP Outlook

3 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q4 2011 Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale $5.2- $11.5- $7.7- $4.2- $14.0- $9.4- $6.3- Forecast

4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Real Disposable Income Per Capita Household Wealth Personal Consumption Outlook

5 Consumer Debt Service Household Liabilities Household Assets Household Balance Sheet

6 Net National Savings Net National Savings Rate Savings Components

7 Housing Market Trends Housing Starts Median Home Prices Housing Inventory Home Sales

8 Housing Market Trends Mortgage Delinquency Rates Mortgage Foreclosure Rates Housing Affordability Index

9 Investment Real Private Investment in Equipment & Software Real Private Investment - Structures Real Change in Private Inventories

10 Sector Indicators ATA Truck Tonnage Index Total Rail Carloadings Boxboard Production

11 U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

12 Labor Market Total Nonfarm Jobs Initial Unemployment Claims Unemployment Rate January: 8.3 percent Household Employment

13 Civilian Participation Rate Duration of Unemployment Part-time for Economic Reasons Discouraged Workers Labor Market

14 Labor Participation Rates (by age class, population shares) 16%

15 Inflation Consumer Price Index Core Consumer Price Index

16 Spot Market Price Index: All Commodities Spot Market Price Index: Metals

17 Interest Rates & Spreads Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 3-Month Treasury Note Yield TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3- Month Treasury

18 Fed Policy Bank Assets and Liabilities

19 Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks Consumer Credit Outstanding Domestic Bank Lending Home Equity Loans

20 Deficit to GDP CBO’s Baseline Deficit (January 2012)

21 Alternative Deficit Forecasts Forecast Budget Deficit Forecast

22 Government Baseline Debt (CBO’s Baseline – January 2012)

23 Alternative Debt Forecasts Forecast

24 Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (January 2012)


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