1. Forecasting Sales: A Step Towards Better Inventory Management Sewell Infiniti Jordan Whitteberry

2. Contacts Rick Cowart Dr. Barr Tim Jordan Whitteberry

3. Problem and Circumstances Seasonal by months Daily holding cost Lead time Jordan Whitteberry

4. Purpose Find seasonality of historical sales data Find leading indicators that they can track going forward Jordan Whitteberry

5. Questions and Decision Are there any local indicators that would track to our sales and help, in a leading manner, indicate the future of our sales? How does that affect ordering of inventory? Which indicators should be used? What focus should the indicators have? How many should be used? What should be done about the missing data for May of 2007? Jordan Whitteberry

6. General Approach Generate numbers for May Smoothie Find historical data for indicators MLR Jordan Whitteberry

7. Smoothie PeriodActualTrendSeasonalCyclicalForecastError 7182147.3721.0860.962160.09821.902 8197146.9171.3280.956195.1661.834 9132146.4610.90.957131.7480.252 10116146.0060.9060.952132.271-16.271 11110145.550.8540.954124.23-14.23 12169145.0951.2160.961176.436-7.436 1396144.640.7470.949108.004-12.004 1490144.1840.7680.936110.744-20.744 15183143.7291.2880.925185.175-2.175 16108143.2730.7630.922109.276-1.276 17156142.8181.1340.927162.017-6.017 18121142.3621.010.931143.78-22.78 19155141.9071.0860.935154.1610.839 20170141.4511.3280.948187.906-17.906 Jordan Whitteberry

8. MLR Must use data that is at least three months ahead to compare Searching for a combination of r 2 s that add up to be above 0.5 LIBOR BCI CPI Unemployment Jordan Whitteberry

9. Taking Unemployment Into Account Jordan Whitteberry

10. Taking Dallas BCI Into Account Jordan Whitteberry

11. Variables Period Seasonality Index Cyclical Index Unemployment Rate 3 months prior BCI 6 months prior Jordan Whitteberry

12. Equations ERROR = -464.617639 +2.299667 * BUSI_CYC ERROR = 180.854826 - 37.995136 * UNEMP Trend = 150.560349 + - 0.455445 * Period Jordan Whitteberry

13. Final Mathematical Model F = (150.560349 + -0.455445 * Period) * Seasonality * Cyclical - 180.854826 - 37.995136 * UNEMP + -464.617639 + 2.299667 * BUSI_CYC Jordan Whitteberry

14. Model’s Logic Final Forecast 150.560349 + -0.455445 * Period Seasonality * Cyclical 180.854826 -37.995136 * UNEMP -464.617639 +2.299667 * BUSI_CYC Jordan Whitteberry

15. Issues Unemployment Business Cycle Index Jordan Whitteberry

16. Interpretation Jordan Whitteberry

17. Conclusion Unemployment and BCI relate Limited outcome Try personal income and outlays, real estate purchases Try to stay locally focused Jordan Whitteberry