1. International Trade Issues & Texas Agriculture Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University

2. Trade Issues & Texas Agriculture WTO Negotiations Complete NAFTA Implementation- 2008 Trade Agreements Cuba Export Opportunities Trade Disruptions

3. 1990200020012006F2010F2015F2020 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 NAWEI. ASIAEE/FSUD. ASIA MEAFRLATOTAL Billions 6.5 7.6 Ind. + 8%, Dev. + 31%

4. GDP, Trillion 1997 Dollars Ind. + 64%, Developing + 140%

5. U.S. Tariffs, 1789-2004 Statistical Abstract of the United States 178918161820184018601880190019201940196019802000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Tariff of Abominations, 1828 Morrill Act, 1861 Smoot-Hawley Tariff, 1930 Generalized System of Preferences, 1968 Fordney-McCumber Tariff, 1922 GATT, 1947 WTO, 1995

6. World Average Agricultural Tariffs, 2002 Source: WTO & ERS/USDA 115 85 55 40 30 25 10 Asia Caribbean Islands Central America South America European Union North America United States 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Percent Region Average World Average 62%

7. Since 2000 Exports + 30% Imports + 50%

8. World Trade Organization Doha Development Agenda (2001-06)? Agreement on Reductions by April 30, 2006 Did Not Happen Draft Schedules Due July 31, 2006? Conclude Negotiations December 31, 2006?? Trade Promotion Authority Expires July 2007

10. Australia ‘05 Bahrain ‘05 CAFTA-DR ‘05 Chile ‘04 FTAA ? Morocco ‘04 Southern African Customs Union ‘06 Singapore ‘03 Jordan ‘01 U.S. Trade Agreements NAFTA ‘94 Israel ‘85 CUSTA, ‘89 Andean FTA ‘06 Panama ‘06 Thailand ‘06 MEFTA ‘06 S. Korea

15. Million Dollars

18. Texas Ag Export Impacts Business Activity ($ M) $6,558 Income($ M) $2,724 Jobs (#) 88,875 Ag Exports $3,363 million

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20. Observations Disparity in Population & Income Growth Disparity in Use of Trade Barriers Disparity in Agricultural Trade Growth China Emerging as Major Market & Economic Force

21. Observations Questions About Role & Future Importance of Trade WTO Agreement Important Open Markets Eliminate Export Subsidy Distortions Minimize Litigation Over Farm Policy Fruit/Vegetable Issues Ag Exports Important to Texas Economic Growth, but Concentrated in Certain Regions

22. Conclusions & Implications U.S. Market Is Open, Rest of World Is Not U.S. Export Growth Lags Import Growth If Trade Growth is Important, Disparities Must Be Addressed Progress in WTO Important to U.S. & Texas for at Least 2 Reasons: Markets Farm Policy

23. Conclusions & Implications Absent WTO Progress, Expect More Litigation in WTO Aimed at Farm U.S. Policy Trade Agreements Likely Important Way to Address Market Access Trade is Important Growth Component of Texas Economy

24. Thank You! Parr Rosson Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843-2124 Telephone: 979-845-3070