1. 1 EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT…. High-Clockspeed Technology-Based Trends* Judith A. Droitcour, Ph.D. U.S. Government Accountability Office Contact: droitcourj@gao.govdroitcourj@gao.gov Presented at Evaluation 2009 Panel: Prospective Evaluation and Technology: New Developments and 21 st Century Challenges November 13, 2009 * Based in part on GAO, HIGHWAY SAFETY: Foresight Issues Challenge DOT’s Efforts to Assess and Respond to New Technology-Based Trends, October 2008 (GAO-09-56). The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

2. 2 TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS: TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS: Key Phases -- Innovation Cycle Phase 3 --benefit(s) at individual, societal level (e.g., economic) --side effects (<= how used) Phase 2 --commercialization --consumer adoption --potentially varied uses of innovation Phase 1 --research and development --“validation” of new innovations

3. 3 TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS CAN IMPACT AGENCY GOALS Phase 3 --benefit(s) at individual, societal level (e.g., economic) -- side effects that negatively Impact safety goals Phase 2 --commercialization --consumer adoption --potentially varied uses of innovation Phase 1 --research and development --“validation” of new innovations

4. 4 PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES, LIKE CELL PHONES 3. Side- effects 2. Consumer adoption, varied uses 1. New innovations

5. 5 SIDE EFFECT: IMPACTS DOT’s/ NHTSA’S HIGHWAY SAFETY GOAL

6. 6 CLOCKSPEED: CLOCKSPEED: Can an agency keep pace with a fast-paced technology-based trend? (organizational clockspeed = rate at which an organization introduces new products, adopts new production processes, or reorganizes itself; Sources: Charles H. Fine, 1998; David W. Rejeski, 2003)

7. 7 STILL-EVOLVING INNOVATIONS: STILL-EVOLVING INNOVATIONS: e.g., visual component (experts don’t see tech. slowing down) Source: Prof. Babak A. Parviz, University of Washington

8. 8 COMMERCIALIZATION, CONSUMER ADOPTION: COMMERCIALIZATION, CONSUMER ADOPTION: fast-evolving trend over the past decade dates of wide-availability PDAs late 1990s hands-free phones (no wire to ear) ~ 2003 GPS and cameras on phones ~ 2004 newest cell phones have streaming TV, video-calling have internet access are replaced every 17 months text messages numbered 14 million/mo. 2000 18+ b illion/mo. 2006 120+ billion/mo. 2009*

9. 9 COMBINING INNOVATIONS, USES, SIDE EFFECTS: COMBINING INNOVATIONS, USES, SIDE EFFECTS: road-phoning devices

10. 10 GAO EVALUATION (2008) When faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….

11. 11 1. DECIDING/RESPONDING: 1. DECIDING/RESPONDING: Evidence - Governance Options Framework

12. 12 NHTSA: DECIDING/RESPONDING electronic driver distractions--2008

13. 13 2. DEVELOPING EVIDENCE 2. DEVELOPING EVIDENCE: Criteria for selecting methods to assess impact of high-clockspeed trend  Technically adequate  Timely  Capable of being repeated over time (relatively frequently, i.e., non-costly) …..as we found for NHTSA and new distractins, it can be difficult to meet all three

14. 14 3. COMMUNICATING Two key attributes  Comprehensiveness re: relevant trends  Timeliness ….. as of 2008 DOT had not included new driver distractions in key reports to the Hill

15. 15 GAO’S RECOMMENDATIONS re: high-clockspeed trends affecting safety 1. deciding/responding anticipatory risk management…* or adaptive strategies, weigh old vs new, etc. 2. developing evidence potentially, use newest technology 3. communicating more complete, timely communications

16. 16 POSTSCRIPT: FALL 2009 deciding/responding DOT took some key steps….re: banning developing evidence NHTSA developing new research plan communicating DOT’s driver distraction summit, included Hill and other stakeholders

17. 17 THANK YOU

18. 18 TECHNOLOGY-BASED TREND: crash-avoidance 2 nd TECHNOLOGY-BASED TREND: in-vehicle crash-avoidance tech’s Phase 3 --benefit(s) at individual, societal level (e.g., life- saving) --side effects (<= how used) Phase 2 --commercialization --consumer adoption --potentially varied uses of innovation Phase 1 --research and development --“validation” of new innovations

19. 19 DOT/NHTSA: IN-VEHICLE CRASH- AVOIDANCE TECHNOLOGIES deciding/responding expand NCAP* program (include crash-avoidance info’) developing evidence encountered difficulties getting highest level evidence that is timely communicating considerable communication *NCAP = New Car Assessment Program (earlier sole focus: crash-worthiness)

20. 20 FORESIGHT FRAMEWORK When faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….