1. Strategy For The 21 st Century Prometheus Process venturist ® incorporated Design The Future: Scope The Environment Scope the Environment Paint the Future Picture Engrave the Precepts Craft the Measures of Merit Design the Future Target for SuccessCampaign to WinFinish with Finesse

2. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX The Promethic Observations Cycles Pervade The World Change Is Inevitable Most Strategic Endeavors Fail In The Short Term, And All Fail In The Long Term Disruption Is Inevitable

3. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX The Basic Cycle People Companies Countries Continents Galaxies Universes

4. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Very Long Cycles From: Petit, J.R., D. Raynaud, C. Lorius, J. Jouzel, G. Delaygue, N.I. Barkov, and V.M. Kotlyakov. 2000. Historical isotopic temperature record from the Vostok ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change.Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

5. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Medium To Very Short Cycles Very Short Medium Short Source: US House of Representatives Source: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Source: US Treasury Department

6. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Cycles Within Cycles Very Short (months)Medium (decades) Very Long (millennia) Long (centuries)Short (years) Gas Prices Leaded Gasoline Gasoline Long Economic Cycles Energy demand per capita Oil Market Oil Company

7. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Living With Cycles Think Early About Cycles When Possible, Move With Cycles Rather Than Against Them –Look For Coincident Cycles Don’t Confuse Long Cycles And Short Cycles Don’t Extrapolate The Slopes Of Short Cycles Cycle Specifics Are Uncertain –So Hedge Your Bets

8. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX A World Of Revolutionary Change Revolution Is =>10X –Available And Useable Knowledge –Pace Of Change –Precision –Business Models

9. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Twenty Year Development Cycle (Concept to Field) Technology Growth 10,000X 1000X 100X 10X 510 Time In Years 1520 Technology Growth

10. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Impacts Of Revolutionary Change Velocity of Information Dissemination Time Customer/Opponent Knowledge Information Life Span Competition Duration Product Cycle Times Difficulty of Entry

11. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Rethinking Product Life Cycles Impact Years 01020 Slow To Start, Slow To Fade New Era: Rapid Impact, Rapid Fade X86 Business Model

12. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX The Business And Military Precision Revolution Number of Bombs To Drop To Have A 90% Probability of One Bomb Hitting A Target A Third The Size of A Football Field Conflict Average Miss DistanceNumber of Bombs WW II (B-17s)3300 Feet9070 Desert Storm (F-117)< 10 Feet1 Reduced Support Lower Cost Far Faster Very High Cost Lots Of Waste Very Slow

13. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX New Era Product Diffusion Curve New Business Model: Parallel Product Introduction Diffusion Years 0510 Old Era Product Diffusion Curve Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Laggards Late Majority

14. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Succeeding In A Revolutionary Environment Embrace Change Be Very Agile Move Very Fast

15. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Strategic Endeavors: Risk And Probability Most Tactical Endeavors Are Successful –Cross The Street, Fly An Airplane, Cook A Hamburger The Majority Of Strategic Endeavors Fail –Start A Business, Introduce A New Product, Attack A Country (~80% Failure Rate) The Probability Of Success P s Is Always Less Than “1” –The Cost Of Failure Ranges From Tolerable To Intolerable

16. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Strategic Success vs Tactical Success Strategic Realm Tactical Realm Probability High Low

17. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Prospering In A Low Probability World Understand That It Is Impossible To Predict What Will Succeed And What Will Fail Identify And Abandon Failure Quickly Focus On Success

18. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Disruptors A Disruptive Technology Or Concept –Displaces Or Destroys Products Or Services Based On Existing Technologies Or Concepts –Normally Begins Life Looking Less Capable Than What It Will Disrupt –Eventually Has Overwhelming Advantages Compared To Its Predecessor –May Originate From A Completely Different Industry Or Market Systems—Markets, Companies, People—Tend To Resist Change -- And Then Embrace It Rapidly Best Customers Almost Always Ask For Marginal Improvements (Sustaining Innovation) Verity: At Some Point In The Future You Will Be Disrupted See The Innovator’s Dilemma by Clayton Christensen for a complete discussion of this topic.

19. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Examples of Disruptive Technologies Sail To Steam Vacuum Tube To Transistor Dumb Bomb To Smart Bomb Hamburger Stand To McDonald’s Typewriter To Computer VHS Video To DVD Cathode Ray Tube To LCD, Plasma, DLP Cable To Hydraulic Excavators

20. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX The Acceptability Curve Old Product Sustaining Innovation Curve Disruptive Product Capability Improvement Curve Customer Cross-Over Point Disruptive Product Initial Capability Up-market Drive New Sustaining Innovation Curve

21. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Sustaining Vs Disruptive Innovation Innovations Can Be Sustaining Or Disruptive –Sustaining: Electronic Fuel Control For Automobile Companies Like General Motors –Disruptive: Semiconductors For Vacuum Tube Manufacturers Like Columbia Sustaining Innovation Normally Associated With Existing Markets That Are Reasonably Well-Understood Disruptive Innovations Normally Associated With New Markets For Which Little Or No Data Exists See The Innovator’s Dilemma, The Innovator’s Solution, and Seeing What’s Next by Clayton Christensen for a complete discussion of this topic.

22. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Three Customer Categories Of Disruption Non-Consumers, Over-Served, And Under-Served Non-Consumers: People Who Have Not Been Able To Do Something Conveniently At A Reasonable Price (Non Consumption) –Desktop Photocopiers In 1980s Over-Served: People Who Would Buy Something Less Capable If It Were Available At Far Lower Prices –Re-bar Market (Nucor vs Integrated Mills) Underserved: People Who Would Pay More For Something With Dramatic New Characteristics Even If Base Performance Is Less Than Currently Available –Air Taxis –Plasma TV Screens ~2000 See The Innovator’s Dilemma, The Innovator’s Solution, and Seeing What’s Next by Clayton Christensen for a complete discussion of this topic.

23. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Success In Disruption Best Chances Of Success: Low End Or Non- Consuming Customers –Low End: Incumbents May Happily Abandon (Mini-mill Rebar) –Non Consumption: Only Competition Is The Non-Consumption (eBay) Channels: Must Accommodate The Disruptive Product With Symmetric Motivation (Sony Transistor Radios Via Discount Stores) See The Innovator’s Dilemma, The Innovator’s Solution, and Seeing What’s Next by Clayton Christensen for a complete discussion of this topic.

24. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Don’t Listen To Your Customers Customers Will Almost Never Ask For A Disruptive Technology or Concept The First Market For A Disruptive Technology or Idea Will Probably Not Be With “Mainstream” Customers Disruptive Products Normally Require Disruptive Channels Selling Revolutionary Products and Services Must Be Revolutionary -- About The Future! “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have told me a faster horse.” Henry Ford

25. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Be A Disruptor—Not A Disruptee! New Concepts – New Ideas -- Quantum Leaps! Credit: CPU by Scott, BigStockPhoto

26. Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist ® incorporated Copyright Venturist®, Inc. 2001-2006 – All Rights Reserved Licensed To Advanced Micro Devices, Sunnyvale, CA and Austin, TX Scope The Environment Injunction Think Strategically Move Quickly Focus Sharply

27. Strategy For The 21 st Century Prometheus Process venturist ® incorporated Prometheus Process Scope The Environment Insights and Discussion Photo Credits: (Rethinking Product Life Cycles, Computer Chip, BigSkyPhotos License) (The Business and Military Precision Revolution, Exploding Bombs and Iraq Airfield Photos, US Air Force; Photo of J Warden in front of a Saddam Hussein Palace in Baghdad, by J Warden) (The Acceptability Curve, Cable and Boom excavator Photo by M Cline, Truck and Hydraulic Excavator Photos BigSkyPhotos License) (Be A Disruptor, Chip BigSkyPhotos License)