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Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3XY Tel+44 (0)20 7628 6000 Fax+44.

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Presentation on theme: "Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3XY Tel+44 (0)20 7628 6000 Fax+44."— Presentation transcript:

1 Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3XY Tel+44 (0)20 7628 6000 Fax+44 (0)20 7638 7928 www.barings.com June 2009 The Greater China Fund, Inc. and The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

2 1 Asia vs World: Relative performance over past decade (May 31, 2009) After 2008 setback, Asia’s out-performance is expected to continue Source: Factset as at 31 May 2009 MSCI Total Returns (in US$ terms)

3 2 Asia vs World: Long term performance Asia is the clear long term winner Source: Factset as at 31 May 2009 MSCI Total Returns (in US$ terms)

4 3 Driver of global growth How Asia has transformed itself: Pre- and post-financial crisis Pre- 1997Post- 1998 Current accountDeficitSurplus CurrencyOvervaluedUndervalued Foreign borrowingHighWorld’s major lender LeverageExcessiveDeleveraging Capacity expansionExcessiveDisciplined Corporate RoEFallingRising Relative valuationPremiumDiscount Growth driverExportsConsumption Derivative of global growth More sustainable growth post restructuring

5 4 Asia’s Balance Sheet Revisited: Healthy Asian banks have capacity to lend Asian corporate debt levels are close to 25 year lows... as well as external debt levels The external position of Asia is healthier today than 20 years ago in terms of current account balance... 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1981198419871990199319961999200220052008E Asia ex-Japan Net Debt- to-Equity Ratio 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 929394959697989900010203040506070809 GDP-wgt Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (major financial institutions) -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 84858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708 Asia ex HK/Sing Current Account Balance as % of GDP 16 21 26 31 84858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708 Asia ex HK/Sing Total External Debt as % of GDP Source: Citi (6/2009) Data prior to 1995 excludes Taiwan It is most likely that Asia can weather this storm well % of GDP

6 5 Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Singapore Ten years after crisis, restructured & ready to pounce! Rising returns on equity ASEAN corporates now recognise the importance of ROE and are focused on sustaining and increasing returns to shareholders Source:CSFB as at June 2009

7 6 Chinese Economy: Sustainable GDP Growth Real GDP Growth (Year-on-year Percentage, %) Source: BCA Research, JP Morgan as at May 2009, Bloomberg Sustainability preferred to boom and bust CREDIT TIGHENING 9% swing 10% swing 4% swing

8 7 China Fiscal policy has a lot of room to expand Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates as at May 2009

9 8 China: Recent PMI and domestic property sales Source: (left) CITICS as at May 2009 and (right) Goldman Sachs as at May 2009 (Primary market — Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan and Nanjing) PMI new orders up faster than PMI finished good inventory Property sales volume improving in primary market

10 9 Corporate Earnings Growth: Downgrades bottoming out Source: JP Morgan (6/2009) Room for upward surprise in 2009 ? US: Earnings Revisions Index Asia Pacific ex-Japan: Earnings Revisions Index

11 10 Asian Equities’ Valuations Valuations not at extremes, earnings revisions the key Source: JP Morgan (6/2009) P/E (x) Div. Yield (X) P/BV (x)Earning growth (%)ROE (%) Country Current Trailing 12m fwd Current Trailing 2008E2009E2010E2009E Global *12.413.13.31.6-9.4-18.118.711.2 USA *18.514.32.42.0-22.1-9.822.511.8 EMF Asia15.214.42.31.8-20.2-6.824.511.4 China14.613.82.72.0-8.7-2.017.313.5 Korea15.813.81.41.3-34.0-1.838.18.0 *Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. US trailing PE is calculated as per reported earnings. For all other markets and sectors, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest. Companies with different yearends are calendarised to December yearends and are free float adjusted for aggregation. Historical numbers are from MSCI.

12 11 Asia and China Strategy and Outlook Massive monetary injection stabilises liquidity environment and asset prices Little evidence of sharp broad based recovery yet selected regions and industry segments stand a good chance to see growth re-accelerating Asian economies and consumers are underleveraged with China continuing to drive growth and reflation in the whole Asian region Markets will re-focus on secular and above market earnings growth following the strong share price rebound from distressed valuations Our high alpha approach seeks to capture the best opportunities in the region through companies with the most attractively priced growth

13 12 Asia Pacific Fund  Country - Overweight China, Taiwan, Singapore and Indonesia  Sector – Overweight Financials and Energy  Key themes : Chinese domestic consumption, regional asset reflation, return of liquidity in Taiwan, energy and niche growth technology  Prefer secular growth to cyclicals. Underweight defensives Greater China Fund  Prefer China to Hong Kong  Look for beneficiaries of strong infrastructure spending and stimulus package – construction companies and building materials  Quality China properties stock benefit from government policy support and market recovery  Bombed out cyclical stocks – material and technology – to lead early rally in restocking expectation  Focus on market leaders which play consolidator roles and with restructuring angle  Stock selection focus switching from valuation support to earnings delivery following the strong share price rebound from distressed levels Asia and China Strategy and Outlook

14 13 The China and Asia Conundrum What is the share of China and Asia ex-Japan in the world’s economy five years from now? What is the potential size of the Chinese economy compared to Japan? What is China and Asia ex-Japan’s market capitalization relative to that of the US? What was Japan’s market capitalization relative to that of the US in 1990? How are you positioned in China and Asia ex-Japan? Is it consistent with your economic view?

15 14 Asia and China The World’s Biggest “Underweighting” Source: JPM as at June 2009 Asia in the World Region 2009May 2009 PopulationGDPMarket Cap. % in total % MSCI North America5.1%28.2%48.3% Developed Europe7.7%29.2%26.7% Asia50.1%26.5%20.2% Australia0.3%1.6%2.8% China19.9%8.7%2.0% Japan1.9%9.3%9.9% CEEMEA4.9%5.6%2.4% LatAm6.9%5.2%2.4% Others25.2%5.0%0.0% Global100.0%

16 15 Important Information – Regulatory Disclosure This document is provided as a service to professional investors/advisers. It is issued in the United Kingdom by Baring Asset Management Limited and/or by its investment adviser affiliates in other jurisdictions. The affiliate serving as the Greater China Fund/the Asia Pacific Fund’s investment adviser is Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited. In the United Kingdom this document is issued only to persons falling within a permitted category under (i) the FSA’s rules made under section 238(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and (ii) the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. This is not an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment referred to in this document. Baring Asset Management group companies, their affiliates and/or their directors, officers and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information from third party sources which are believed to be reliable but no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. This document may include forward-looking statements, which are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections as of the date on the cover hereof. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. Compensation arrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available. Private investors in the Company referred to herein should obtain their own independent financial advise before making investments. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in the Company, we recommend that all relevant documents, such as reports and accounts and prospectus should be read, which specify the particular risks associated with investment in the Company, together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The Company may not be available for investment in all jurisdictions. There may also be prohibitions or restrictions on distribution of this document and other material relating to the Company and accordingly recipients of any such documents are advised to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. Compliance (Boston): June 10, 2009


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