1. The Next Fifty Years of Software
Nathan P. Myhrvold
Chief Technology Officer
Microsoft Corporation

2. THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

3. ACM 97 Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to:
Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to:

4. James Burke
Master of Ceremonies

9. NATHAN MYHRVOLD

11. The Next Fifty Years of Software
Nathan P. Myhrvold
Chief Technology Officer
Microsoft Corporation

12. Software: The Crisis Continues!
Nathan P. Myhrvold
Unrepentant Programmer
&
Theoretical Physicist

13. A Brief History of the Universe
Quantum gravitational fluctuation
starts expanding
A Brief History of the Universe
Inflationary expansion
grows exponentially
Expansion slows and particles
condense from quark plasma
Radiation from initial fireball
red shifts by expansion to 3 degrees K
Matter condenses, ultimately into
the San Jose Convention center

15. A Brief History of Information
Writing is invented
Johan Gutenberg
invents moveable type
and modern printing
Von Neumann et. al invent the computer
The microprocessor brings computing to everyone
Networks hook us all together

18. Moore’s Law Price/performance 1,000,000X boost in last 20 years
1,000,000X more in the next 20 years
Likely to continue for at least 40 years

22. Bytes/$ DRAM
Doubling time 964 days
Growth rate 30% per year

23. Software Co. Stock Price

24. Software Co. Stock Price
Doubling time 694 days
Growth rate 44% per year

25. Log (Stock Price/DRAM $ per bit)

26. Nathan’s 1st Law of Software
Software is a gas!
It expands to fit the container it is in!

27. Windows NT Lines of Code
Doubling time 866 days
Growth rate 33.9% per year

29. Browser Code Growth
Doubling time 216 days
Growth rate 221% per year

30. Nathan’s 2nd Law of Software
Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law
Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser)

32. Nathan’s 2nd Law of Software
Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law
Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser)
Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT)
Bring any processor to its knees, just before the new model is out

33. Nathan’s 3rd Law of Software
Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible
That’s why people buy new hardware - economic motivator

35. Nathan’s 3rd Law of Software
Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible
That’s why people buy new hardware - economic motivator
That’s why chips get faster at same price, instead of cheaper
Will continue as long as there is opportunity for new software

37. Nathan’s 4th Law of Software
Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation
It’s impossible to have enough

38. Nathan’s 4th Law of Software
Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation
It’s impossible to have enough
New algorithms

39. Nathan’s 4th Law of Software
Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation
It’s impossible to have enough
New algorithms
New applications and new users

40. Nathan’s 4th Law of Software
Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation
It’s impossible to have enough
New algorithms
New applications and new users
New notions of what is cool

42. The Software Crisis!
Von Neumann had trouble

44. The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble
Software is always in “crisis”

45. The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble
Software is always in “crisis”
Is there some limit to complexity?
Will software ever grow up?

46. Of course not! The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble
Software is always in “crisis”
Is there some limit to complexity?
Will software ever grow up?
Will the crisis ever end?
Of course not!

47. The Perpetual Crisis Panacea solutions High level languages
Object oriented programming
Component software, ...

49. The Perpetual Crisis Panacea solutions
High level languages
Object oriented programming
Component software, ...
Benefits absorbed by rising expectations

51. The Perpetual Crisis Panacea solutions
High level languages
Object oriented programming
Component software, ...
Benefits absorbed by rising expectations
Software will never be easy
Somebody will push the boundary

52. Synthetic Actors

54. Mommy, look at my T. rex!

55. Future Software Techniques
Genetic programming
“Software husbandry”
Tending virtual flocks
How does software complexity compare to genetic complexity?

58. Which is Bigger?
Evita
Evita:
The Motion Picture
Madonna:
The Genotype

59. Evita 4 Gbytes ~1 Gbyte The Movie Wins Madonna: The Genotype Evita:
The Motion Picture

60. Genetic Complexity Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte
Individual difference ~ 0.25%

61. Genetic Complexity Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte
Individual difference ~ 0.25%
Loss less compression 2:1
Individual ~ 1.2 Mbytes

62. Genetic Complexity You fit on a floppy disk Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte
Individual difference ~ 0.25%
Loss less compression 2:1
Individual ~ 1.2 Mbytes
You fit on a floppy disk

63. Genetic Diversity? Human population < 3.7 Tbytes
Compress relatives < 1 Tbytes
Like a big web site!

64. Genetic Diversity? Human population < 3.7 Tbytes
Compress relatives < 1 Tbytes
Like a big web site!
Diversity of all animals on earth?
About the size of the web in a few years!

66. The Ultimate Computer
Learning more about the brain every day

70. The Ultimate Computer Learning more about the brain every day
AI will happen
Computers with same power in 20 to 30 years
Brain has no Moore’s Law

71. Programming The Ultimate Computer
When computers are as smart as humans, how do you program them?
Human takes 20 years to boot!

72. Programming The Ultimate Computer
When computers are as smart as humans, how do you program them?
Human takes 20 years to boot!
Must we teach them?

73. Humans as Software
Uploading to become a program

76. Humans as Software
Uploading to become a program

77. Operating Systems for Human Software
Housing uploads
Treat human upload as an application program
Provide memory & other services
Peripherals to deal with real world

78. Separated at Birth?
Windows
Windows 2047

79. Separated at Birth? Windows 2.0 1987 Windows 2047 Multitasking
Multiple personalities
Virtual memory
Virtual memory

80. Separated at Birth? Windows 2.0 1987 Windows 2047 Multitasking
Multiple personalities
Virtual memory
Virtual memory
Compatible with
DOS applications
Compatible with meat based humans
> 640 Kilobytes
> 640 Petabytes
GUI
You & I

81. See you in 2047!

82. NATHAN MYHRVOLD