1. Ann Berrington, University of Southampton Acknowledgements to Juliet Stone, Peter Tammes & Steve Roberts Young Adults, Economic Precariousness and Housing The Crisis for Contemporary Youth: Opportunities and Civic Values in Comparative, Longitudinal and Inter-generational Perspective. 4-5 th June 2015, London.

2. Overview 1.Changing socio-economic and policy context 2.With whom do young adults live? 3.What is the impact of economic precariousness on transition out of parental home? 4.Discussion

3. 1.Changing socio-economic and policy context

4. Increased Economic Precariousness Increased enrolment in HE. – Increased student debt. Increased youth unemployment and economic insecurity for those in work. – Part time, temporary & short hours contracts. 4

5. – Increased house prices, lack of mortgage credit. – Increased rental prices, deposits. Source: Shelter (2015) Declining affordability of private housing

6. First time buyers now older, middle earners squeezed out Source: Shelter (2015)

7. Annual average growth in number of households (source: DCLG Live Table 401) Sources: From 1946: DCLG live tables. Earlier: Scottish Housing, and AE Holmans 2005

8. Increased reliance on private rental sector Source: Labour Force Survey

9. Welfare retrenchment – Residualisation of social housing sector – Restrictions in housing benefit/Local Housing Allowance (LHA) Shared Accommodation Rate under 35 single young adults Reductions in value of LHA Overall benefit cap, soon to be reduced further 9

10. 2. With whom do young adults live?

11. % living with a parent, UK, 2001, 2011 and 2014 Source: ONS, from LFS Female Male

12. Household Type by Economic Activity Status. Women aged 25-29, UK 2009/10 employed Source: Understanding Society

13. Tenure distribution of young women living outside parental home according to age and household type, UK 2012. Source: UK LFS. Berrington & Stone (2014)

14. Percentage of young adults who are single and living outside the family home in shared accommodation, UK 2012 and 2014 Source: Labour Force Survey

15. Concealed Families on the Rise Again, Especially in London Percentage of families that are concealed according to age of head of family unit and family unit type, Eng & Wales, 2011 Source: 2011 Census

16. 3. What is the impact of economic precariousness on chances of leaving parental home?

17. Measuring economic precariousness UK 25-29 year-olds, 2009/10 % of total who are unemployedemployed semi-/ routine employed part-time employed temporary Men131867 Women816268 Source: Berrington A. et al. (2014) Economic Precariousness and Young Adults’ Living Arrangements., ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper.

18. Analytical Framework – analyses leaving home Parental characteristics Parental household income Maternal education Parental family structure Young adult’s characteristics Economic activity / precariousness Highest educational qualification Ethnicity Region residence Probability of transition out of parental home

19. Modelling Transition Out of Parental Home Analysis of paired waves of Understanding Society (UKHLS) data waves 1-3 Sample: men and women aged 16-29 living at home at t0 Logistic hazards model of leaving home between t0 and t1 Parental background and individual level explanatory variables I will show findings for employed young men Secure (i.e. permanent full time work) vs Insecure work (i.e. part time or temporary work)

20. Predicted annual probabilities of leaving parental home by job security and parental household income. UK employed males, 16-22, 2009-2013. Other variables held at reference category: white, higher educated, living in London, high maternal education, living with two natural parents

21. Predicted annual probabilities of leaving parental home by job security and parental family structure. UK employed males, 16-22, 2009-2013. Other variables held at reference category: white, higher educated, living in London, high maternal education, highest quartile of HH income

22. Predicted annual probabilities of leaving parental home by job security and ethnicity. UK employed males, 23-29, 2009-2013. Other variables held at reference category: higher educated, living in London, high maternal education, highest quartile of HH income, living with two natural parents

23. 4. Discussion

24. Young Adults Priced Out of Owning a Home Private rented sector dominant role in housing pathways for older / wider sector of population. House price to income ratios rapidly increasing from 2001 onwards. Mortgage interest low but large deposits required (Help to Buy ~ 100,000 homes). Inter- and intra-generational inequality in housing pathways. Need to increase availability of stable, good quality rented accommodation for increasing numbers of young families. Regulation of PRS – new life course phases. “The Government must build more of the right homes at the right prices in the right areas”’ David Orr (National Housing Federation)

25. Transition to Residential Independence Are these trends result of short term crisis or part of a longer term change in nature of housing transitions? Early home leaving seen both among advantaged young adults (e.g. to attend HE), and among disadvantaged (e.g. more likely to leave to search for a job, family friction). Select group who remain in parental home in late twenties and early thirties tends to be socio-economically disadvantaged Returning home esp. after HE, partnership dissolution (Stone et al., 2014)

26. Policy Implications Lack of ability of some vulnerable groups to return home. Queen’s Speech => 18-21 yr olds => homelessness Need supported pathways for early, non-student leavers. Importance of policy to recognise gender and ethnic differences in housing pathways. Implications of changes to level of LHA, e.g. benefit claimants priced out of London Slight increase in sharing - At what age should we expect young people to live in shared housing? Current housing policy supports main carer of dependent children but ignores non-resident parent.

27. References Berrington, A. and Stone, J. (2014) Young adults’ transitions to residential independence in Britain: The role of social and housing policy. In Hamilton, M., Antonucci, L. & Roberts, S. (Eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave Macmillan. Berrington, A. et al. (2014) Economic Precariousness and Young Adults’ Living Arrangements., ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper. http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers.php http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers.php Shelter (2015) Housing Affordability for First Time Buyers, March 2015. Stone,J.,et al. (2011) Demographic Research, 25(20):629-66. The changing determinants of UK young adults' living arrangements. http://www.demographic- research.org/volumes/vol25/20/25-20.pdfhttp://www.demographic- research.org/volumes/vol25/20/25-20.pdf Stone, J. et al. (2014) Gender, turning-points and boomerangs: returning home in the UK. Demography, 51, (1), 257-276. 27

28. Acknowledgements This research is funded by ESRC Grant numbers RES-625-28-0001 and ES/K003453/1. The Centre for Population Change is a joint initiative between the University of Southampton and a consortium of Scottish Universities in partnership with ONS and NRS. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to ONS or NRS. Understanding Society is carried out by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. The UK Labour Force Survey is carried out by the Office for National Statistics. Access to these data is provided by the UK Data Archive. The original data creators, depositors or copyright holders, the funders of the Data Collections (if different) and the UK Data Archive bear no responsibility for their further analysis or interpretation. 28

29. SPARE SLIDES

30. Unemployment rate 1992-2013 according to graduate status, UK Source: ONS, 2014

31. Household Type by Economic Activity Status. Men aged 25-29. UK 2009/10

32. Reported parental family type at age 14, UK men and women aged 16-24 in 2009-10 by ethnic group.

33. Large cross-national variations in co-residence among young adults 33 % males aged 25-34 living with a parent in 2012 and 25-29 male unemployment rate in 2012

34. DimensionsTypesIndicators 1-Precarious labour market A-labour insecurity i-(Un)employed ii-Occupational class & mobility B-income insecurityi-Earnings, wages 2-Precarious employment relations A-Employment insecurity i-Part-time contract ii-Temporary contract iii-Other: seasonal, shifts B-Skill reproduction insecurity i-Training & development C-Work insecurity i-Protection against accidents, illness, inferior treatment 3-Precarious social and political relations A-Representation insecurityi-Trade union representation ii-Right to strike B-Social insecurity i-Social benefits & social policies ii-Role of partner, parents or other relatives Table 1: Dimensions and indicators of economic precarity (See CPC Working paper #55 / Briefing paper # 22) Adapted from Kalleberg (2009), Standing (2011), and Wilson and Ebert (2013).

35. Employment insecurity: % part-time according to gender, age and occupational class (See BP #22) Source: UKHLS 2009/10

36. 5. Reported ideal age for leaving home by gender and ethnicity, UK 2011/12. EthnicityMalesFemales Mean # (se) % non- num. Mean # (se) % non- num. White21.3 (0.1)12.121.1 (0.1)7.6 Indian23.1 (0.5)15.022.8 (0.4)16.9 Pakistani & Bangladeshi 23.5 (0.4)24.523.3 (0.4)18.1 Black22.5 (0.4)12.821.5 (0.3)12.0 Other & mixed21.5 (0.4)11.121.6 (0.3)10.1 Source: UKHLS wave 3, 16-21 year olds living at home.

37. There was already an increase in proportions remaining in parental home prior to recession 37 % males aged 25-34 living with parents, 1998 and 2008, by economic activity, UK. Source: UK LFS. Stone et al. (2011) The changing determinants of UK young adults' living arrangements. Demographic Research 25(20):629-66.

38. Household Type by Economic Activity Status. Men aged 25-29. UK 2009/10 employed Source: UKHLS, w 1

39. Two sets of models for employed men: 1) those aged 16-22 at t0 2) those aged 23-29 at t0 Model 1 Job insecurity Model 2 Model 1 + respondent’s level of education, ethnicity, region residence Model 3 Model 2 + maternal education, parental household equivalised income, parental family structure

40. Results for employed men: Odds ratios for leaving home, 2009-2012 Aged 16-22Model 1 Job insecurity Model 2 + indv. char. Model 3 + parental char. Job security (ref. = permanently employed) 111 Insecure job0.8590.9020.887 Aged 23-29Model 1 Job insecurity Model 2 + indv. char. Model 3 + parental char. Job security (ref. = permanently employed) 111 Insecure job0.499***0.520**0.515*

41. 5. Young non resident fathers

42. Young Non-resident Fathers UK distinctive in high proportion of children not living with both natural parents. Rules for social housing entitlement & housing benefit assume one parent has primary care of child. But shared parenting takes place and is encouraged. Non-resident parent will be classed as not having children and hence not qualify for e.g. access to social housing, will be affected by SAR & ‘bedroom tax’.

43. How many young men are reported to be non- resident with at least one of their children? Age group Non-resident fathers % of all men% of fathers 20-243.1%37.2% 25-297.7%26.3% 30-349.5%19.5% Total (20-34)5.4%24.2% Reported prevalence of non-resident fathers in the UK by age group, UKHLS, 2009-2010 Source: UK LFS. Berrington & Stone (2014) Young adults’ transitions to residential independence in Britain: The role of social and housing policy. In Hamilton, Antonucci & Roberts (Eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave Macmillan.

44. With whom are young non-resident fathers living? Distribution of living arrangements among UK non-resident fathers by age group, 2009-2010. UKHLS. Source: UK LFS. Berrington & Stone (2014) Young adults’ transitions to residential independence in Britain: The role of social and housing policy. In Hamilton, Antonucci & Roberts (Eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave Macmillan.